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Journal ArticleDOI

Influences of reopening businesses and social venues: COVID-19 incidence rate in East Texas county.

18 Jan 2021-Epidemiology and Infection (Cambridge University Press (CUP))-Vol. 149, pp 1-31
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in trends of COVID-19 incidence and interrupted time-series analyses for potential impact of state EROP orders on COVID19 incidence.
Abstract: As the on-going severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic, we aimed to understand whether economic reopening (EROP) significantly influenced coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence. COVID-19 data from Texas Health and Human Services between March and August 2020 were analysed. COVID-19 incidence rate (cases per 100 000 population) was compared to statewide for selected urban and rural counties. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify changes in trends of COVID-19 incidence and interrupted time-series analyses for potential impact of state EROP orders on COVID-19 incidence. We found that the incidence rate increased to 145.1% (95% CI 8.4-454.5%) through 4th April, decreased by 15.5% (95% CI -24.4 -5.9%) between 5th April and 30th May, increased by 93.1% (95% CI 60.9-131.8%) between 31st May and 11th July and decreased by 13.2% (95% CI -22.2 -3.2%) after 12 July 2020. The study demonstrates the EROP policies significantly impacted trends in COVID-19 incidence rates and accounted for increases of 129.9 and 164.6 cases per 100 000 populations for the 24- or 17-week model, respectively, along with other county and state reopening ordinances. The incidence rate decreased sharply after 12th July considering the emphasis on a facemask or covering requirement in business and social settings.

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The incidence of coronavirus in men was higher in three waves and also the incidence was increasing in younger age groups and due to the observance of health protocols and quarantine during the peak in Iran and Babol, the authors witnessed a decrease in incidence.
Abstract: Background: In December 2019, China released the first report of the coronavirus (COVID-19). On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized the COVID-19 as “pandemic”. The rapid occurrence of positive cases motivated this study to examine the trend of incidence cases. Methods: We used the data from the database of the Deputy of Health of Babol City and in Iran, the country report of definite cases of the disease that was reported to the World Health Organization had been used. This study was a cross-sectional study and the data from period of 56 weeks (from February 24, 2020 to March 20, 2021) were gathered. Descriptive analysis with SPSS20 and data classification with EXCEL2016 and Joinpoint regression with Joinpoint trend analysis software 4.9.0.0 identify the significant changes in the temporal trends of the outbreak. Results: In this study, 11341 patients with a mean age of 53.56 years, of whom 5865(51.5%) were males, were studied. Three waves of Covid19 were created. AWPC (average weekly percentage change) incidence rate with a slope of 2.7 was estimated for Babol and 6.2 for Iran. The incidence was higher in men in the first wave of 1887(55.6%) and so is the third 2373(50.1%), the average age in the third wave (50.92) was lower than the other waves as well. Conclusion: The incidence of coronavirus in men was higher in three waves and also the incidence was increasing in younger age groups. Also, due to the observance of health protocols and quarantine during the peak in Iran and Babol, we witnessed a decrease in incidence.

1 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Assessment of spatio-temporal patterns of patients with COVID-19 in Serbia at the early stage and whether these patterns are linked to valid public health measures that were enforced during this period shows the polarisation of the spatial grouping of the number of infected.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic escalated in almost all parts of the world over a very short period of time. The speed of the spread was determined by the degree of mobility of the population, while the risk of severe illness or death depended on the population?s demographic characteristics, population health status, and the capacity of the health system to treat patients. This paper aims to assess spatio-temporal patterns of patients with COVID-19 in Serbia at the early stage and whether these patterns are linked to valid public health measures that were enforced during this period. The study adopted the local Moran?s index to identify the spatial grouping of the number of infected at a municipality level and joinpoint regression analysis to identify whether and when statistically significant changes occurred to the number of infected by gender and age groups, and to the number of deaths in the entire population. The results show the polarisation of the spatial grouping of the number of infected. Considering the change in the trend in the number of infected between genders, no significant difference was noticeable. When the age-gender categories of infected were examined, the differences became more significant. In addition, changes in the trend were associated with the tightening or loosening of public health measures.
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the authors describe the management of two linked severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks, predominantly amongst 18-35-year-olds, in a UK county in July-to-September 2021.
Abstract: We describe the management of two linked severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks, predominantly amongst 18-35-year-olds, in a UK county in July-to-September 2021, following the lifting of national coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated social restrictions. One was associated with a nightclub and one with five air force bases. On week beginning 2nd August 2021, air force contact tracing teams detected 68 cases across five bases within one county; 21 (30.9%) were associated with a night-time economy venue, 13 (19.1%) with night-time economy venues in the county's main town and at least one case per base (n = 6, 8.8%) with a particular nightclub in this town, which itself had been associated with 302 cases in the previous week (coinciding with its reopening following a national lockdown). In response, Public Health England/United Kingdom Health Security Agency, air force and local authority teams collaboratively implemented communication strategies and enhanced access to SARS-CoV-2 testing and vaccination. Key challenges included attempting to encourage behaviours that reduce likelihood of transmission to a population who may have considered themselves at low risk from severe COVID-19. This report may inform future preparation for, and management of, easing of potential future pandemic-related social restrictions, and how an outbreak in this context may be addressed.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Abstract: Background The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the...

13,101 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This case highlights the importance of close coordination between clinicians and public health authorities at the local, state, and federal levels, as well as the need for rapid dissemination of clinical information related to the care of patients with this emerging infection.
Abstract: An outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that began in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly, with cases now confirmed in multiple countries. We report the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States and describe the identification, diagnosis, clinical course, and management of the case, including the patient's initial mild symptoms at presentation with progression to pneumonia on day 9 of illness. This case highlights the importance of close coordination between clinicians and public health authorities at the local, state, and federal levels, as well as the need for rapid dissemination of clinical information related to the care of patients with this emerging infection.

4,970 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown how segmented regression analysis can be used to evaluate policy and educational interventions intended to improve the quality of medication use and/or contain costs.
Abstract: Interrupted time series design is the strongest, quasi-experimental approach for evaluating longitudinal effects of interventions. Segmented regression analysis is a powerful statistical method for estimating intervention effects in interrupted time series studies. In this paper, we show how segmented regression analysis can be used to evaluate policy and educational interventions intended to improve the quality of medication use and/or contain costs.

2,513 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
04 May 2020-Nature
TL;DR: A model of the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in China suggests that a strategy involving the rapid implementation of a combination of interventions is most effective.
Abstract: On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776–164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44–94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world. A model of the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in China suggests that a strategy involving the rapid implementation of a combination of interventions is most effective.

878 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This research is the first geographic study that utilizes space-time statistics to monitor COVID-19 in the U.S. between January 22th-March 9th, 2020, and January 22nd-March 27th of 2020, using daily case data provided by Johns Hopkins University and SaTScan.

265 citations

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