Innovative Second-Generation Wavelets Construction With Recurrent Neural Networks for Solar Radiation Forecasting
TL;DR: A 2-day forecast is obtained by using novel wavelet recurrent neural networks (WRNNs) that performs the prediction in the wavelet domain and, in addition, also performs the inverse wavelet transform, giving the predicted signal as output.
Abstract: Solar radiation prediction is an important challenge for the electrical engineer because it is used to estimate the power developed by commercial photovoltaic modules. This paper deals with the problem of solar radiation prediction based on observed meteorological data. A 2-day forecast is obtained by using novel wavelet recurrent neural networks (WRNNs). In fact, these WRNNS are used to exploit the correlation between solar radiation and timescale-related variations of wind speed, humidity, and temperature. The input to the selected WRNN is provided by timescale-related bands of wavelet coefficients obtained from meteorological time series. The experimental setup available at the University of Catania, Italy, provided this information. The novelty of this approach is that the proposed WRNN performs the prediction in the wavelet domain and, in addition, also performs the inverse wavelet transform, giving the predicted signal as output. The obtained simulation results show a very low root-mean-square error compared to the results of the solar radiation prediction approaches obtained by hybrid neural networks reported in the recent literature.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the theory behind these forecasting methodologies, and a number of successful applications of solar forecasting methods for both the solar resource and the power output of solar plants at the utility scale level.
813 citations
Cites background from "Innovative Second-Generation Wavele..."
...2012 [287] Daily GHI 1 day Wavelet recurrent neural...
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TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive and systematic review of the direct forecasting of PV power generation is presented, where the importance of the correlation of the input-output data and the preprocessing of model input data are discussed.
Abstract: To mitigate the impact of climate change and global warming, the use of renewable energies is increasing day by day significantly. A considerable amount of electricity is generated from renewable energy sources since the last decade. Among the potential renewable energies, photovoltaic (PV) has experienced enormous growth in electricity generation. A large number of PV systems have been installed in on-grid and off-grid systems in the last few years. The number of PV systems will increase rapidly in the future due to the policies of the government and international organizations, and the advantages of PV technology. However, the variability of PV power generation creates different negative impacts on the electric grid system, such as the stability, reliability, and planning of the operation, aside from the economic benefits. Therefore, accurate forecasting of PV power generation is significantly important to stabilize and secure grid operation and promote large-scale PV power integration. A good number of research has been conducted to forecast PV power generation in different perspectives. This paper made a comprehensive and systematic review of the direct forecasting of PV power generation. The importance of the correlation of the input-output data and the preprocessing of model input data are discussed. This review covers the performance analysis of several PV power forecasting models based on different classifications. The critical analysis of recent works, including statistical and machine-learning models based on historical data, is also presented. Moreover, the strengths and weaknesses of the different forecasting models, including hybrid models, and performance matrices in evaluating the forecasting model, are considered in this research. In addition, the potential benefits of model optimization are also discussed.
626 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the main objective of this study is to review Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based techniques in order to identify suitable methods available in the literature for solar radiation prediction and to identify research gaps.
Abstract: Solar radiation data plays an important role in solar energy research. These data are not available for location of interest due to absence of a meteorological station. Therefore, the solar radiation has to be predicted accurately for these locations using various solar radiation estimation models. The main objective of this study is to review Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based techniques in order to identify suitable methods available in the literature for solar radiation prediction and to identify research gaps. The study shows that Artificial Neural Network techniques predict solar radiation more accurately in comparison to conventional methods. The prediction accuracy of ANN models is found to be dependent on input parameter combinations, training algorithm and architecture configurations. Further research areas in ANN technique based methodologies are also identified in the present study.
534 citations
TL;DR: A neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs) and a new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjectives problem into a constrained single-objective problem.
Abstract: Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.
506 citations
TL;DR: The use of long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) to accurately forecast the output power of PV systems and offers a further reduction in the forecasting error compared with the other methods.
Abstract: Photovoltaic (PV) is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. To ensure secure operation and economic integration of PV in smart grids, accurate forecasting of PV power is an important issue. In this paper, we propose the use of long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) to accurately forecast the output power of PV systems. The LSTM networks can model the temporal changes in PV output power because of their recurrent architecture and memory units. The proposed method is evaluated using hourly datasets of different sites for a year. We compare the proposed method with three PV forecasting methods. The use of LSTM offers a further reduction in the forecasting error compared with the other methods. The proposed forecasting method can be a helpful tool for planning and controlling smart grids.
443 citations
Cites methods from "Innovative Second-Generation Wavele..."
...Wavelet recurrent neural networks were used in [9] to predict solar radiation for two days ahead, where they considered the correlation between solar radiation, wind speed, air humidity, and temperature....
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References
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...Define now Wj as a complementary space of Vj in Vj+1 , such that Vj+1 = Vj ⊕Wj , v(2x) ∈ Wj+1, and v(x) ∈W0 ⇔ v(x+ 1) ∈W0....
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TL;DR: The central concept of sparsity is explained and applied to signal compression, noise reduction, and inverse problems, while coverage is given to sparse representations in redundant dictionaries, super-resolution and compressive sensing applications.
Abstract: Mallat's book is the undisputed reference in this field - it is the only one that covers the essential material in such breadth and depth. - Laurent Demanet, Stanford University The new edition of this classic book gives all the major concepts, techniques and applications of sparse representation, reflecting the key role the subject plays in today's signal processing. The book clearly presents the standard representations with Fourier, wavelet and time-frequency transforms, and the construction of orthogonal bases with fast algorithms. The central concept of sparsity is explained and applied to signal compression, noise reduction, and inverse problems, while coverage is given to sparse representations in redundant dictionaries, super-resolution and compressive sensing applications. Features: * Balances presentation of the mathematics with applications to signal processing * Algorithms and numerical examples are implemented in WaveLab, a MATLAB toolbox * Companion website for instructors and selected solutions and code available for students New in this edition * Sparse signal representations in dictionaries * Compressive sensing, super-resolution and source separation * Geometric image processing with curvelets and bandlets * Wavelets for computer graphics with lifting on surfaces * Time-frequency audio processing and denoising * Image compression with JPEG-2000 * New and updated exercises A Wavelet Tour of Signal Processing: The Sparse Way, third edition, is an invaluable resource for researchers and R&D engineers wishing to apply the theory in fields such as image processing, video processing and compression, bio-sensing, medical imaging, machine vision and communications engineering. Stephane Mallat is Professor in Applied Mathematics at cole Polytechnique, Paris, France. From 1986 to 1996 he was a Professor at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences at New York University, and between 2001 and 2007, he co-founded and became CEO of an image processing semiconductor company. Companion website: A Numerical Tour of Signal Processing * Includes all the latest developments since the book was published in 1999, including its application to JPEG 2000 and MPEG-4 * Algorithms and numerical examples are implemented in Wavelab, a MATLAB toolbox * Balances presentation of the mathematics with applications to signal processing
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"Innovative Second-Generation Wavele..." refers background in this paper
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