Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate
TL;DR: More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
Abstract: While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
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TL;DR: Overall pest pressure in California’s walnut industry can be expected to increase substantially due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes, and the possibility of higher winter survival rates, leading to higher initial pest counts in spring, or of extended pest development times in the summer.
Abstract: Increasing temperatures are likely to impact ectothermic pests of fruits and nuts. This paper aims to assess changes to pest pressure in California’s US$0.7 billion walnut industry due to recent historic and projected future temperature changes. For two past (1950 and 2000) and 18 future climate scenarios (2041–2060 and 2080–2099; each for three General Circulation Models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios), 100 years of hourly temperature were generated for 205 locations. Degree-day models were used to project mean generation numbers for codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.), navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella Walker), two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae Koch), and European red mite (Panonychus ulmi Koch). In the Central Valley, the number of codling moth generations predicted for degree days accumulated between April 1 and October 1 rose from 2–4 in 1950 to 3–5 among all future scenarios. Generation numbers increased from 10–18 to 14–24 for two-spotted spider mite, from 9–14 to 14–20 for European red mite, and from 2–4 to up to 5 for navel orangeworm. Overall pest pressure can thus be expected to increase substantially. Our study did not include the possibility of higher winter survival rates, leading to higher initial pest counts in spring, or of extended pest development times in the summer, factors that are likely to exacerbate future pest pressure. On the other hand, initiation of diapause may prevent an extension of the season length for arthropods, and higher incidence of heat death in summer may constrain pest population sizes. More information on the impact of climate change on complex agroecological food webs and on the response of pests to high temperatures is needed for improving the reliability of projections.
58 citations
Additional excerpts
...As many plant pests fall into this category, it is important to include projections of climate change effects on these organisms into considerations on future food security (Gregory et al., 2009)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the potential effects of climate change on wheat and how to factor in a changing climate when planning for the future management of these diseases was discussed. And three broad areas of potential risks were described: increased loss from wheat rusts, new rust pathotypes evolving faster and the reduced effectiveness of rust resistances.
Abstract: This paper offers projections of potential effects of climate change on rusts of wheat and how we should factor in a changing climate when planning for the future management of these diseases. Even though the rusts of wheat have been extensively studied internationally, there is a paucity of information on the likely effects of a changing climate on the rusts and their influence on wheat production. Due to the lack of published empirical research we relied on the few published studies of other plant diseases, our own unpublished work and relevant information from the vast literature on rusts of wheat to prepare this overview. Three broad areas of potential risks from a changing climate were described: increased loss from wheat rusts, new rust pathotypes evolving faster and the reduced effectiveness of rust resistances. Increased biomass of wheat crops grown in the presence of elevated CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures will increase the leaf area available for attack by the pathogen leading to increased inoculum production. If changed weather conditions were to accelerate the life cycle of a pathogen, the increased inoculum can lead to severe rust epidemics in many environments. Likewise should the effects of climate change result in more conducive conditions for rust development there will also be a corresponding increase in the rate of evolution of new pathotypes which could increase the rate of appearance of new virulences. The effectiveness of some rust resistance genes is influenced by temperature and crop development stage. Climate change may directly or indirectly influence the effectiveness of some resistance genes but this can not be ascertained due to a complete lack of knowledge. Since disease resistance breeding is a long term strategy it is important to determine if any of the important genes may become less effective due to climate change. Studies must be made to acquire new information on the rust disease triangle to increase the adaptive capacity of wheat under climate change. Leadership within the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative (BGRI) is needed to broker research on rust evolution and the durability of resistance under climate change.
58 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...The crucial role of plant physiology and morphology in the uptake and translocation of fungicides is well known (O’Leary and Jones 1987) as is the influence of systemic fungicides on plant physiology including photosynthesis and gas exchange (Gruber et al. 2009)....
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TL;DR: A better co-ordinated and more globalized approach to agricultural research through the implementation of the GCIN is proposed, which could help target the translation of research from the laboratory into the field while bringing the constraints of rural communities closer to the scientific community.
Abstract: The International Wheat Improvement Network (IWIN), an alliance of national agricultural research systems (NARSs), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), and advanced research institutes (ARIs), continues to deploy cutting-edge science alongside practical multi-disciplinary applications, resulting in the development of germplasm that has made major contributions during the Green Revolution. The continuous supply of improved germplasm for nearly half a century has also enabled developing countries to have a sustained increase of wheat production and productivity and thereby improving food security and farmers’ livelihoods. Wheat production levels have increased from 235 million tons in 1961 to 691 million tons in 2012. Yet, global food consumption has exceeded production for 6 of the last 11 years (2004–2010), and food reserves are now ‘dangerously low,’ particularly for staple grains such as wheat and maize. Changing diets, urbanization, and other factors mean that demand for wheat is likely to only multiply further, and therefore wheat yields must increase from the current global average of 3 t per hectare. According to some estimates, the global wheat production must increase at least by 1.6 % annually to meet a projected yearly wheat demand of 760 million tons by 2020. In the year 2050, the world population is estimated to be nine billion and the demand for wheat reaches more than 900 million tons. Fulfilling this demand is very challenging with the current scenario of climate change, increasing drought/water shortage, soil degradation, reduced supply & increasing cost of fertilizers, increasing demand for bio-fuel, and emergence of new virulent diseases and pests. This paper presents a review and insight about the past and current contributions of IWIN, breeding progresses and genetic gains, and its future role in offsetting the major global challenges of wheat production.
58 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...…trials, faster and more comprehensive diagnosis of emerging constraints, timely sharing of new technologies, opportunities to focus research efforts better by linking groups with similar productivity constraints and complementary skills, and greater control of experimental variables in…...
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...Crop productivity could be further eroded by declining soil quality, water limitations, increasing fertilizer prices, and genetic susceptibility to new pests and diseases (Gregory et al., 2009; Jarvis et al, 2010)....
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TL;DR: The impact of pathogen-induced DNA methylation modifications on a host's transcriptome reprogramming and genome stability, as part of the plant's defense mechanisms is discussed, to assist breeders toward improving resistance and decreasing yield losses.
57 citations
TL;DR: There is a need to develop an understanding of the implications and impacts of climate change on natural biodiversity, artificial landscapes as well as production agriculture, since these form parts of an integrated continuum.
Abstract: Climates are changing worldwide at rates not seen previously in geological time. This affects food production itself and the growth and reproduction of plant pathogens which reduce crop yield and quality. There is a need to develop an understanding of the implications and impacts of climate change on natural biodiversity, artificial landscapes as well as production agriculture (defined here as a generalization embracing all of the primary uses of land for agriculture, horticulture and forestry), since these form parts of an integrated continuum. Currently, 20–25% of harvested crops worldwide are lost to pre- and post-harvest diseases and climatic change is expected to increase these losses. Climatic change results in increasing variability and altered scales of temperature, rainfall and wind velocity and periodicity. These changes affect the activities and vigour of aerial and soilborne pathogens. Some pathogens capable of devastating crops and harvested produce have become more active and damagi...
56 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...…examine the impact of climate change on pathogens and consequential reductions in food supply, it does at least offer a means of implementing phyto-sanitary control of invading aliens and understanding the earlier appearance of established microbes during the growing season (Gregory et al., 2009)....
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...While there are some inherent deficiencies in using a modelling approach in order to examine the impact of climate change on pathogens and consequential reductions in food supply, it does at least offer a means of implementing phyto-sanitary control of invading aliens and understanding the earlier appearance of established microbes during the growing season (Gregory et al , 2009 )....
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References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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01 Jul 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment: 1. Overview 2. Methods and tools 3. Development and application of scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 4. Hydrology and water resources 5. Natural and managed ecosystems 6. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems 7. Energy, industry, and settlements 8. Financial services 9. Human health Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 10. Africa 11. Asia 12. Australasia 13. Europe 14. Latin America 15. North America 16. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 17. Small island states Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis: 18. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity 19. Synthesis and integration of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Index.
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Abstract: Foreword Preface Introduction Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability - 811 Cross-chapter case studies Appendix I. Glossary Appendix II. Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix III. Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix IV. Acronyms and abbreviations Appendix V. Index and database of regional content Index CD-ROM.
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Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations