Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate
TL;DR: More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
Abstract: While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared performances of two soil-crop models of contrasting complexity: STICS, a mechanistic model, and AqYield, which is much simpler and more empirical.
54 citations
TL;DR: In this article, it is estimated that production of UK winter oilseed rape is associated with GHG of 3300 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 of crop and 834 kg CO 2 eq. t− 1 of seed yield, with 79 percent of the GHG associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizer.
Abstract: Global food security is threatened by crop diseases that account for average yield losses of 16 per cent, with the greatest losses experienced by subsistence farmers in the developing world. Climate change is exacerbating the threats to food security in such areas, emphasizing the need to increase food production in northern European countries such as the UK. However, the crops must be grown in such a way as to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with their production. As an example, it is estimated that production of UK winter oilseed rape is associated with GHG of 3300 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 of crop and 834 kg CO2 eq. t−1 of seed yield, with 79 per cent of the GHG associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizer. Furthermore, it is estimated that control of diseases by use of fungicides in this UK oilseed rape is associated with a decrease in GHG of 100 kg CO2 eq. t−1 of seed. Winter oilseed rape cultivar disease resistance is associated with a decrease in GHG of 56 kg CO2 eq. t−1, although this f...
54 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...…1473-5903 (print), 1747-762X (online). www.earthscanjournals.com due to sea-level rise, desertification, drought and heat-stress are widely recognized (FAO, 2007, 2009; Frow et al., 2009), the importance of including crop diseases in climate change impact assessments is not (Gregory et al., 2009)....
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...To do this, it will be essential to include strategies to control existing and new disease problems within strategies for adaptation to impacts of climate change (Evans et al., 2008; Gregory et al., 2009)....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors decompose global change/food security studies into different levels in accordance with the previous mentioned issues, field, regional, and global, and categorize them into the life sciences, earth and environmental sciences, and social and sustainability sciences, respectively (yet not necessarily one to one correspondence).
53 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present and analyze experiences from the tropical Andes based on a recent science-policy process on the national and supra-national government level, where a framework for the science contribution in climate adaptation has been developed; it consists of three stages, including (1) the framing and problem definition, (2) the scientific assessment of climate, impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, and (3) the evaluation of adaptation options and their implementation.
52 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...Scientific contributions in this field include the application of crop models considering phenological phases and water requirements (Geerts et al., 2006, 2008; Steduto et al., 2009), or the assessment of vectors for pests and diseases (Gregory et al., 2009)....
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TL;DR: This study presents a data set consisting of 3400 olive leaves samples which also includes healthy leaves so as to detect Aculus olearius and Olive peacock spot diseases, which are common olive plant diseases in Turkey.
Abstract: In recent years, there have been significant achievements in object classification with various techniques using several deep learning architectures. These architectures are now also used for classification and detection of many plant diseases. Olives are important plant species which are grown in certain regions of the world. The disease types that affect the olive plants vary on the region where it is grown. This study presents a data set consisting of 3400 olive leaves samples which also includes healthy leaves so as to detect Aculus olearius and Olive peacock spot diseases, which are common olive plant diseases in Turkey. This experimental study used transfer learning methods on VGG16 and VGG19 architectures, as well as on our proposed CNN architecture. Effects of data augmentation on performance were one aim of this research. In the experimental studies which applied data augmentation the highest success value in trained models was 95%, whereas in the experiments without data augmentation the highest value was 88%. Another subject of this research is the Adam, AdaGrad, Stochastic gradient descent and RMS Prop optimization algorithms’ effect on the network’s performance. As a result of the conducted experiments, Adam and SGD optimization algorithms were generally observed to generate superior results.
51 citations
References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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01 Jul 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment: 1. Overview 2. Methods and tools 3. Development and application of scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 4. Hydrology and water resources 5. Natural and managed ecosystems 6. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems 7. Energy, industry, and settlements 8. Financial services 9. Human health Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 10. Africa 11. Asia 12. Australasia 13. Europe 14. Latin America 15. North America 16. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 17. Small island states Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis: 18. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity 19. Synthesis and integration of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Index.
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Abstract: Foreword Preface Introduction Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability - 811 Cross-chapter case studies Appendix I. Glossary Appendix II. Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix III. Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix IV. Acronyms and abbreviations Appendix V. Index and database of regional content Index CD-ROM.
8,465 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations