Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate
TL;DR: More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
Abstract: While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
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01 Jan 2019
TL;DR: In this paper, a case study from Nyandarua County in Kenya is used to illustrate how this approach supports identification of major climate risks and their impacts on the value chain, identifies adaptation interventions, and promotes the mainstreaming of climate change considerations into development planning at the subnational level.
Abstract: Extreme weather is causing significant problems for smallholder farmers and others who depend on agricultural value chains in developing countries. Although value-chain analysis can help untangle the complex relationships within agricultural systems, it often has failed to take into account the effects of climate change. Climate-change assessments, meanwhile, often focus on the production node while neglecting other components of the value chain. In response to these shortcomings, the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), in collaboration with the Government of Kenya, developed the climate risk profiles (CRP) approach. Using a case study from Nyandarua County in Kenya, we illustrate how this approach (i) supports identification of major climate risks and their impacts on the value chain, (ii) identifies adaptation interventions, and (iii) promotes the mainstreaming of climate-change considerations into development planning at the subnational level. Our results show that the magnitude of a climate risk varies across value chains. At the input and production stage, strategies for supporting climate-smart value chains include the following: improving access to input markets, supporting diversification and value addition, provision of climate-smart production technologies, dissemination of climate information services, and making financial and insurance services available. At the harvesting, processing and marketing stages, useful interventions would include strengthening farmer organization, investing in climate-proofed infrastructure including roads and facilities for storage, processing and improving access to output markets. Finally, climate-change adaptation along the value chain would be improved by strengthening existing institutions, exploring public-private partnerships and adopting coherent local policies.
14 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discussed the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies.
Abstract: According to Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, climate change will lead to a severe food-supply problem. In the future, food production will continually decrease because of aggravated effects of climate change, causing food production to continually decrease. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demand of the global population, leading to a food-security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, the shortage of food will become increasingly severe, particularly for those located in “climate impact hotspots” of tropical, subtropical, small-island countries, and countries that are dependent on imports to meet domestic demand such as Taiwan. Numerous Taiwanese studies have suggested that agricultural and fishery productivity has declined because of climate variation, which may cause changes and instability in food quantity and quality, and increase deficiency and uncertainty in the food supply. Therefore, to discuss the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, this paper, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies. TaiCCAT’s supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA) was adopted here to assess and analyze the current situations of agricultural and fisheries production and supply, as well as future food supply risks, in addition to evaluating the deficiencies in the existing climate adaptation strategies in order to plan and revise feasible future adaptation alternatives. Based on the rule of risk management, the adaptation strategies recommended in this study were differentiated into two categories: proactive adaptation and planned adaptation. Proactive adaptation is emphasized to counter the uncertainty of food production, which increases the difficulty of production and necessity to import food. Conversely, planned adaptation can be used to manage the uncertainty of food supply to implement adjustments in production and marketing, as well as to mitigate the impact of climate variation.
14 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...In addition, as the air temperature and humidity rise, disease and pest damage has gradually shifted and expanded toward high latitudes (Gregory et al. 2009) (Table 7)....
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...The impacts on natural environments include soil moisture decreasing, irrigation water reduction, changes in pathogens, pest life-cycles, types, and land degradation (Table 6) (Lal 2003; Midgley et al. 2007; Gregory et al. 2009; Galindo and De Miguel 2010)....
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TL;DR: This paper examined the ways in which endemic plant disease risks in the UK wheat sector are perceived and managed by key "upstream" and "downstream" businesses, as well as by farmers and agronomists.
14 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the complete kinomes of the polyploid Saccharum spontaneum (SSP) and Sorghum bicolor (Sbi), a close diploid relative, were identified and profiled.
Abstract: The protein kinase (PK) superfamily is one of the largest superfamilies in plants and the core regulator of cellular signaling. Despite this substantial importance, the kinomes of sugarcane and sorghum have not been profiled. Here, we identified and profiled the complete kinomes of the polyploid Saccharum spontaneum (Ssp) and Sorghum bicolor (Sbi), a close diploid relative. The Sbi kinome was composed of 1,210 PKs; for Ssp, we identified 2,919 PKs when disregarding duplications and allelic copies, and these were related to 1,345 representative gene models. The Ssp and Sbi PKs were grouped into 20 groups and 120 subfamilies and exhibited high compositional similarities and evolutionary divergences. By utilizing the collinearity between the species, this study offers insights into Sbi and Ssp speciation, PK differentiation and selection. We assessed the PK subfamily expression profiles via RNA-Seq and identified significant similarities between Sbi and Ssp. Moreover, coexpression networks allowed inference of a core structure of kinase interactions with specific key elements. This study provides the first categorization of the allelic specificity of a kinome and offers a wide reservoir of molecular and genetic information, thereby enhancing the understanding of Sbi and Ssp PK evolutionary history.
14 citations
TL;DR: This study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030 and has implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infections during future flood events.
Abstract: Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05–1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72–1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87–1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/105 and 0.127/105 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/105 and 0.399/105. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.
13 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...Such extreme events pose a threat to public health through changes in the ecology of infectious diseases (Gregory et al. 2009; Semenza & Menne, 2009)....
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...Such extreme events pose a threat to public health through changes in the ecology of infectious diseases (Gregory et al. 2009; Semenza & Menne, 2009)....
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References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
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01 Jul 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment: 1. Overview 2. Methods and tools 3. Development and application of scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 4. Hydrology and water resources 5. Natural and managed ecosystems 6. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems 7. Energy, industry, and settlements 8. Financial services 9. Human health Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 10. Africa 11. Asia 12. Australasia 13. Europe 14. Latin America 15. North America 16. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 17. Small island states Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis: 18. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity 19. Synthesis and integration of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Index.
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Abstract: Foreword Preface Introduction Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability - 811 Cross-chapter case studies Appendix I. Glossary Appendix II. Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix III. Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix IV. Acronyms and abbreviations Appendix V. Index and database of regional content Index CD-ROM.
8,465 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations