Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate
TL;DR: More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
Abstract: While many studies have demonstrated the sensitivities of plants and of crop yield to a changing climate, a major challenge for the agricultural research community is to relate these findings to the broader societal concern with food security. This paper reviews the direct effects of climate on both crop growth and yield and on plant pests and pathogens and the interactions that may occur between crops, pests, and pathogens under changed climate. Finally, we consider the contribution that better understanding of the roles of pests and pathogens in crop production systems might make to enhanced food security. Evidence for the measured climate change on crops and their associated pests and pathogens is starting to be documented. Globally atmospheric [CO(2)] has increased, and in northern latitudes mean temperature at many locations has increased by about 1.0-1.4 degrees C with accompanying changes in pest and pathogen incidence and to farming practices. Many pests and pathogens exhibit considerable capacity for generating, recombining, and selecting fit combinations of variants in key pathogenicity, fitness, and aggressiveness traits that there is little doubt that any new opportunities resulting from climate change will be exploited by them. However, the interactions between crops and pests and pathogens are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. More mechanistic inclusion of pests and pathogen effects in crop models would lead to more realistic predictions of crop production on a regional scale and thereby assist in the development of more robust regional food security policies.
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TL;DR: To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, the results of regional climate models with the phenological model were combined to describe the crop invasion of Ceutorhynchus napi.
Abstract: Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.
6 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...A more refined understanding of the response of these organisms towards global change is thus mandatory for the maintenance of food security in the twenty-first century (Gregory et al. 2009)....
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TL;DR: In this paper , the authors used open-top-chambers (OTC) for two years (2019 and 2020) to study the effects of global warming on crop production.
Abstract: As global temperatures rise, a growing need exists for understanding the impacts of warming on crop production. Warming not only changes crop physiology and growth but also the weeds, insect pests, and diseases of crops including wild lowbush blueberries, which have not been studied till now. Changes in pest pressures can cause instability in production and will require changes in management practices and the development of mitigation strategies. The objective of this study was to determine the impacts of warming on the prevalence of major weeds, insect pests, and diseases of the wild blueberry production system. We selected six genotypes of wild lowbush blueberries in a commercially managed wild blueberry field in Maine Northeast USA and used open-top-chambers (OTCs) to study the effects of warming for two years (2019 and 2020). Both active-heating OTCs (elevated monthly mean temperatures by 3.3 °C) and passive-heating OTCs (elevated by 1.2 °C) were employed and compared with ambient controls. Our results showed that warming did not change the prevalence of red leaf disease, blueberry gall midge, red-striped fireworm, or any weed species. In contrast, the incidence of Sphaerulina leaf spot, powdery mildew, and other leaf spot disease were significantly lower under warming treatments compared to the ambient control at the end of the growing season in 2020. Overall, different pests responded to warming differently, inviting further research to reveal the mechanisms. The lower overall pressure of leaf spot disease under warming was probably due to decreased air humidity.
6 citations
11 Jul 2014
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the impact of climate change on waterborne and foodborne diseases in water-stressed areas and showed that reducing fresh water availability due to climate change will have critical implications for water quality, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups such as children.
Abstract: Climatic conditions strongly impact the incidence and transmission of many waterborne and foodborne diseases. Climate change may increase the risk to these illnesses by influencing weather patterns, resulting in warmer temperatures, more variable rainfall events and decreased water availability. The extent to which these changes will increase the burden of disease is uncertain, however there are implications for many exposure pathways. In addition to infectious disease agents, the transport and fate of chemicals such as heavy metals and organic compounds in the environment will be affected by changing water flows. In water stressed areas, reductions in fresh water availability due to climate change will have critical implications for water quality, disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups such as children. Decreased water resources will also have consequences for safe food processing and preparation.
6 citations
01 Jan 2021
6 citations
27 Jan 2015
TL;DR: In this article, an agro-economic agent-based model is used to analyze climate change adaptation of agricultural production in the Central Swabian Jura region of Germany. But the authors focus on the use of mathematical programming-based multi-agent systems, such as MPMAS, for the analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change.
Abstract: Using the MPMAS multi-agent software, the present thesis implements an agro-economic agent-based model to analyze climate change adaptation of agricultural production in the Central Swabian Jura. It contributes to the DFG PAK 346 FOR 1695 research projects dedicated to improve the understanding of processes that shape structure and functions of agricultural landscapes in the context of climate change at regional scale. In the context of this example, this thesis discusses, develops and tests novel approaches to deal with four notorious challenges that have so far hampered the empirical use of agent-based models for applied economic analysis: data availability, process uncertainty, model validity and computational requirements. The model is used to examine climatic effects on agriculture, changes in agricultural price responses and biogas support and agri-environmental policies illustrating the applicability of the model to adaptation analysis.
The first part of the thesis is dedicated to a methodological discussion of the use of mathematical programming-based multi-agent systems, such as MPMAS, for the analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change. It synthesizes knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change and processes of farmer adaptation and reviews existing agent-based models for their potential contribution to adaptation analysis.
The major focus of the first part is a discussion of available approaches to model validation, calibration and uncertainty analysis and their suitability for the use with mathematical programming-based agent-based models. This discussion is based on four principles required to ensure the validity of conclusions drawn from modeling studies: (i) a transparent model documentation, (ii) that the invariant elements of the model can really be expected to be invariant between scenarios assessed, (iii) that empirical calibration of the model is limited to the extent warranted by available observation and knowledge about the expected error distribution, and (iv) that the effect of process uncertainty on the conclusions is evaluated and communicated.
Based on these conclusions, generic extensions of the MPMAS toolbox are developed to allow the application of suitable approaches for validation and uncertainty analysis.
The second part of the thesis describes the application of the newly developed methodology in the construction and use of the Central Swabian Jura model. The model focuses on an endogenous representation of heterogeneity in agent behavior, an empirical parameterization of the model, and an incorporation of climate effects on possible crop rotations and suitable days for field work besides the expected effects on yields. It extends the demographic, investment and land market components of MPMAS to improve the simulation of structural change over time.
The model was used to analyze potential effects of climate change adaptation on agricultural production and land use in the study area. The results show that besides effects on yields also other climate change-induced effects on the conditions of agricultural production may have important impacts on land use decisions of farmers and deserve more attention in climate change impact analysis. Potential impacts of changes in the time slots suitable for field work and an additional rotation option are predicted to be comparable to the impact of the changes in yields predicted by a crop growth model. Results point to an expansion of wheat and silage maize areas at the expense of barley areas. The partial crowding out of summer barley by wheat area held for current price relations and is less strong at higher relative prices for summer barley. Price response analysis indicated that winter wheat production enters into a substitutive relationship with summer barley production under climate change conditions, while competition with winter barley area diminishes. This leads also to a higher elasticity of the wheat area with respect to relative summer barley prices.
The model was then used to analyze biogas support through the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and the support for grassland extensification and crop rotation diversification through the MEKA scheme. Especially simulated participation in crop rotation diversification is strongly reduced in the climate change scenarios, while the investments in biogas plants are slightly increased.
The conditions established by the latest EEG revision imply that further development of biogas capacity will crucially depend on the existence of demand for excess process heat, because the alternative option of using high manure shares seems to be rather unattractive for farmers in the area according to the simulation results.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird mithilfe der Modellierungssoftware MPMAS ein agrarokonomisches Multiagentenmodell entwickelt, um die Anpassung der Landwirtschaft auf der Mittleren Schwabischen Alb zu untersuchen. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Anwendung werden neue Ansatze diskutiert, entwickelt und getestet, um vier typischen Problemen zu begegnen, die sich bei der empirischen Anwendung agentenbasierter Modelle fur okonomische Analysen ergeben: Datenverfugbarkeit, Prozessunsicherheit, Modellvalidierung und benotigte Rechenkapazitat. Mithilfe des erstellten Modells untersucht die Arbeit Klimaeffekte auf die Landwirtschaft, Veranderungen landwirtschaftlicher Angebotsfunktionen sowie Auswirkungen von Fordermasnahmen fur erneuerbare Energieproduktion und Agrarumweltmasnahmen und demonstriert auf diese Weise seine Anwendbarkeit in der Anpassungsforschung.
Der erste Teil der Arbeit diskutiert methodische Aspekte der Nutzung agentbasierter Modelle wie MPMAS, die Entscheidungen als mathematischer Optimierungprobleme darstellen, in der landwirtschaftlichen Anpassungsforschung: Bisherige Erkenntnisse zu den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft und den sich daraus ergebenden Anpassungsprozessen werden zusammengefasst und bestehende agentenbasierte Modelle hinsichtlich ihres potentiellen Beitrags zur Anpassungsforschung untersucht.
Der Hauptfokus des ersten Teils liegt dann auf der Diskussion bestehender Ansatze zur Modellvalidierung, -kalibrierung und Unsicherheitsanalyse und ihrer Anwendbarkeit auf optimierungsorientierte, agentenbasierte Modelle.
Die Diskussion orientiert sich an vier Prinzipien, die die Validitat der aus der Modellierung gezogenen Schlussfolgerungen sicherstellen sollen: (i) eine transparente Modelldokumentation, (ii) dass als konstant angenommene Modellelemente tatsachlich nicht zwischen den untersuchten Szenarien variieren, (iii) dass das Modell nicht starker kalibriert wird als es die verfugbaren Beobachtungen und die erwartete Fehlerverteilung erlauben, und (iv) dass etwaige Auswirkungen der Prozessunsicherheit auf Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen untersucht und kommuniziert werden. Fur die Umsetzung dieses Ansatzes der Validierung und Umsicherheitsanalyse waren generische Erweiterungen des MPMAS Softwarepakets notwendig, die in dieser Arbeit entwickelt wurden.
Der zweite Teil der Arbeit beschreibt die Anwendung der neuentwickelten Verfahren bei der Erstellung und Nutzung eines Multiagentenmodells fur die Mittlere Schwabische Alb. Der Schwerpunkt der Modellentwicklung lag hierbei auf der Abbildung der Heterogenitat des Agentenverhaltens, der empirischen Parametrisierung, und der Berucksichtigung klimatischer Effekte auf mogliche Fruchtfolgen und zur Feldarbeit geeignete Arbeitstage -- neben den klimatischen Auswirkungen auf Ernteertrage. Daruberhinaus wurde die Modellierung von Demographie, Investitionsentscheidungen und Pachtmarkten in MPMAS erganzt, um die Simulation des landwirtschaftlichen Strukturwandels uber die Zeit zu verbessern.
Mithilfe des Modells wurden potentielle Anpassungsreaktionen der Landwirte auf den Klimawandel hinsichtlich ihrer Auswirkungen auf landwirtschaftliche Produktion und Landnutzung in der Untersuchungsregion analysiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass neben Ertragsveranderungen auch andere klimainduzierte Veranderungen der landwirtschaftlichen Produktionsbedingungen bedeutende Auswirkungen auf die Landnutzungsentscheidungen der Landwirte haben konnen: Potentielle Klimaeffekte auf Feldarbeitstage und zusatzliche Fruchtfolgeoptionen zeigten ahnliche Auswirkungen wie die von einem Pflanzenwachstumsmodell vorhergesagten Ertragsveranderungen. Die Ergebnisse deuten auf eine Ausweitung der Weizen- und Silomaisanbauflache auf Kosten des Gersteanbaus hin. Die Verdrangung von Sommergersteflache durch Weizenflache gilt allerdings fur momentane Preisrelationen und ist bei hoheren Relativpreisen fur Sommergerste weniger stark ausgepragt. Eine Analyse der Angebotsreaktionen zeigte, dass die Winterweizenflache unter Klimawandelbedingungen in ein Substitutionsverhaltnis mit der Sommergersteproduktion tritt, wahrend die Konkurrenz mit Wintergerste abnimmt.
Das Modell wurde auserdem genutzt, um die Forderung der Biogaserzeugung durch das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) und die Forderung der Grunlandextensivierung und Fruchtfolgediversifizierung durch das MEKA-Programm zu untersuchen. Speziell die Beteiligung an der Fruchtfolgediversifizierung zeigte einen starken Ruckgang in den Klimawandelszenarien, wahrend die Investition in Biogasanlagen leicht stieg. Nach der letzten Anderung des EEG, die die Nutzung von Prozessabwarme zur Voraussetzung fur eine Forderung macht, muss davon ausgegangen werden, dass weitere Investitionen in Biogasanlagen stark von der lokalen Vermarktbarkeit von Uberschusswarme abhangen werden, da die Alternativoption erhohter Gullenutzung nach den Simulationsergebnissen fur die Landwirte eher unattraktiv erscheint.
6 citations
Cites background from "Integrating pests and pathogens int..."
...Like crops, also pests and pathogens are affected by the atmospheric and climatic changes described above, however, effects on yield quantity and quality are very much dependent on the specific crop-pest/crop-pathogen interaction and hard to generalize [Gregory et al., 2009; Luck et al., 2011]....
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References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
Book•
01 Jul 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment: 1. Overview 2. Methods and tools 3. Development and application of scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 4. Hydrology and water resources 5. Natural and managed ecosystems 6. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems 7. Energy, industry, and settlements 8. Financial services 9. Human health Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 10. Africa 11. Asia 12. Australasia 13. Europe 14. Latin America 15. North America 16. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 17. Small island states Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis: 18. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity 19. Synthesis and integration of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Index.
12,541 citations
Book•
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Abstract: Foreword Preface Introduction Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability - 811 Cross-chapter case studies Appendix I. Glossary Appendix II. Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix III. Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix IV. Acronyms and abbreviations Appendix V. Index and database of regional content Index CD-ROM.
8,465 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Abstract: Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
4,187 citations