Journal ArticleDOI
Inter‐annual to multi‐decadal Arctic sea ice extent trends in a warming world
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In this paper, a climate model (CCSM4) is used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late 20th century and early 21st century Arctic sea ice extent trends.Abstract:
[1] A climate model (CCSM4) is used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing on late 20th century and early 21st century Arctic sea ice extent trends. On all timescales examined (2–50+ years), the most extreme negative observed late 20th century trends cannot be explained by modeled natural variability alone. Modeled late 20th century ice extent loss also cannot be explained by natural causes alone, but the six available CCSM4 ensemble members exhibit a large spread in their late 20th century ice extent loss. Comparing trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to observed trends suggests that internal variability explains approximately half of the observed 1979–2005 September Arctic sea ice extent loss. In a warming world, CCSM4 shows that multi-decadal negative trends increase in frequency and magnitude, and that trend variability on 2–10 year timescales increases. Furthermore, when internal variability counteracts anthropogenic forcing, positive trends on 2–20 year timescales occur until the middle of the 21st century.read more
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The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research
James W. Hurrell,Marika M. Holland,Peter R. Gent,Steven J. Ghan,Jennifer E. Kay,Paul J. Kushner,Jean-Francois Lamarque,William G. Large,David M. Lawrence,Keith Lindsay,William H. Lipscomb,Matthew C. Long,Natalie M. Mahowald,Daniel R. Marsh,Richard Neale,Philip J. Rasch,S. J. Vavrus,M. Vertenstein,David C. Bader,William D. Collins,James J. Hack,Jeffrey T. Kiehl,Shawn J. Marshall +22 more
TL;DR: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) as discussed by the authors is a community tool used to investigate a diverse set of Earth system interactions across multiple time and space scales, including biogeochemical cycles, a variety of atmospheric chemistry options, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and an atmosphere that extends to the lower thermosphere.
Journal ArticleDOI
Processes and patterns of oceanic nutrient limitation
C. M. Moore,Matthew M. Mills,Kevin R. Arrigo,Ilana Berman-Frank,Laurent Bopp,Philip W. Boyd,Philip W. Boyd,Eric D. Galbraith,Richard J. Geider,Cécile Guieu,Samuel L Jaccard,Tim Jickells,Timothy M. Lenton,Natalie M. Mahowald,Emilio Marañón,Irina Marinov,J. K. Moore,Takeshi Nakatsuka,Andreas Oschlies,Mak A. Saito,T. F. Thingstad,Atsushi Tsuda,Osvaldo Ulloa +22 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reveal two broad regimes of phytoplankton nutrient limitation in the modern upper ocean: Nitrogen availability tends to limit productivity throughout much of the surface low-latitude ocean, where the supply of nutrients from the subsurface is relatively slow.
Journal ArticleDOI
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations
Julienne Stroeve,Vladimir M. Kattsov,Andrew P. Barrett,Mark C. Serreze,Tatiana Pavlova,Marika M. Holland,Walter N. Meier +6 more
TL;DR: The authors showed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3).
Journal ArticleDOI
When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free
James E. Overland,Muyin Wang +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, three approaches to predictions in the scientific literature are as follows: (1) extrapolation of sea ice volume data, (2) assuming several more rapid loss events such as 2007 and 2012, and (3) climate model projections.
Journal ArticleDOI
Arctic sea ice in transformation: A review of recent observed changes and impacts on biology and human activity
Walter N. Meier,Greta K. Hovelsrud,Bob van Oort,Jeffrey R. Key,Kit M. Kovacs,Christine Michel,Christian Haas,Mats A. Granskog,Sebastian Gerland,Donald K. Perovich,Alexander Makshtas,James D. Reist +11 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the changes in sea ice are happening faster than models have projected and substantial uncertainties in the exact timing and high interannual variability will remain as sea ice decreases.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Journal ArticleDOI
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
Nick Rayner,David E. Parker,E. B. Horton,Chris K. Folland,Lisa V. Alexander,David P. Rowell,Elizabeth C. Kent,Alexey Kaplan +7 more
TL;DR: HadISST1 as mentioned in this paper replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Community Climate System Model Version 4
Peter R. Gent,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Leo J. Donner,Marika M. Holland,Elizabeth Hunke,Steve R. Jayne,David M. Lawrence,Richard Neale,Philip J. Rasch,Mariana Vertenstein,Patrick H. Worley,Zong-Liang Yang,Minghua Zhang +12 more
TL;DR: The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community as mentioned in this paper, which describes developments to all CCSM components, and documents fully coupled preindustrial control runs compared to the previous version.
Journal ArticleDOI
Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast
TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-model ensemble mean time series provides a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas (GHG) loading, 33-38% of the observed September trend from 1953-2006 is externally forced, growing to 47-57% from 1979-2006.