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Intervention studies and the definition of dominant transmission routes

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TLDR
The implications for the analysis of real-world data are analyzed by examining data on the importance of water and other transmission routes for cholera in Bangladesh by using a quantitative model to generate synthetic data.
Abstract
A common approach to assessing the relative importance of different transmission routes is to eliminate transmission through one route and assume that the ratio "number of cases eliminated:number of residual cases" measures the relative importance of the eliminated route vis-a-vis the residual transmission route. A quantitative model is used to generate synthetic data similar to those analyzed by epidemiologists. These data are analyzed using this conventional procedure and the inferences drawn from the synthetic data compared with the causal relationships structured into the model. The implications for the analysis of real-world data are analyzed by examining data on the importance of water and other transmission routes for cholera in Bangladesh.

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References
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Book

On the Mode of Communication of Cholera

John Snow
TL;DR: It would occupy a long time to give an account of the progress of cholera over different parts of the world, with the devastation it has caused in some places, whilst it has passed lightly over others, or left them untouched; and unless this account could be accompanied with a description of the physical condition of the places, and the habits of the people, which I am unable to give, it would be of little use.
Journal ArticleDOI

Response of man to infection with Vibrio cholerae. I. Clinical, serologic, and bacteriologic responses to a known inoculum.

TL;DR: The spectrum of illness and the immunologic response produced by cholera in volunteers were studied and Titers of vibriocidal antibody rose after diarrhea, peaked the second week after challenge, and rapidly fell during the next four weeks.
Journal Article

Effect of investments in water supply and sanitation on health status: a threshold-saturation theory.

TL;DR: A preliminary attempt to validate this model using published data on sanitation level, life expectancy, and adult literacy rates, for 65 developing countries appears to provide preliminary support for the threshold saturation theory but further empirical validation is required before a quantitative predictive model can be developed.
Journal Article

Microbiological surveillance of intra-neighbourhood E1 Tor cholera transmission in rural Bangladesh.

TL;DR: Results show that cholera transmission was via contaminated surface water, particularly water taken into households for cooking or drinking, and the frequency of exposure appeared to be a major determinant of the infection rate.
Journal ArticleDOI

Regression Analyses and Education Production Functions: Can They Be Trusted?

TL;DR: Luecke and McGinn as mentioned in this paper showed that many "no significant effect" findings may be artifacts of statistical techniques used to analyze cross-sectional survey data, and compared the statistics thus yielded with their knowledge of the causal relationships programmed into the data.
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