Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on cloud tracking image analysis

doi:10.1016/J.SOLENER.2012.09.018

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Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on cloud tracking image analysis

Journal Article•DOI•

Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on cloud tracking image analysis

Ricardo Marquez¹, Carlos F.M. Coimbra²•Institutions (2)

University of California, Merced¹, University of California, San Diego²

01 May 2013-Solar Energy (Pergamon)-Vol. 91, pp 327-336

TL;DR: In this article, an image processing methodology using Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) to generate short-term forecasts of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) at the ground level is described.

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About: This article is published in Solar Energy.The article was published on 2013-05-01. It has received 331 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Image processing.

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Citations

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Journal Article•DOI•

Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration

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Rich H. Inman¹, Hugo T.C. Pedro¹, Carlos F.M. Coimbra¹•Institutions (1)

University of California, Berkeley¹

01 Dec 2013-Progress in Energy and Combustion Science

TL;DR: In this article, the authors review the theory behind these forecasting methodologies, and a number of successful applications of solar forecasting methods for both the solar resource and the power output of solar plants at the utility scale level.

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813 citations

Cites background or methods from "Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on..."

...Landsberg [45] incorporated GHI data from over 300 locations into a world map of average solar energy available at the Earth’s surface....
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...Coimbra 2013 [254] 1 min DNI 3e15 min Advection of the 2D cloud...
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...Whillier [46] derived graphical models from correlations of measured GHI in several parts of the world at latitudes ranging from the equator to 50 north and south....
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...[254] focused on detailed image processing procedures along with Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) to determine grid cloud fractions in an area of interest....
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...The lower bound is a result of circumsolar glare and limitations introduced by the shadow band, which renders time horizons shorter than 2 min inaccessible [251,254]....
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Journal Article•DOI•

On recent advances in PV output power forecast

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Muhammad Qamar Raza¹, Mithulananthan Nadarajah¹, Chandima Ekanayake¹•Institutions (1)

University of Queensland¹

15 Oct 2016-Solar Energy

TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive and systematic review of PV output power forecast models were provided, which covers the different factors affecting PV forecast, PV output output power profile and performance matrices to evaluate the forecast model.

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350 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

History and trends in solar irradiance and PV power forecasting: A preliminary assessment and review using text mining

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Dazhi Yang¹, Jan Kleissl², Christian A. Gueymard, Hugo T.C. Pedro², Carlos F.M. Coimbra² - Show less +1 more•Institutions (2)

Agency for Science, Technology and Research¹, University of California, San Diego²

01 Jul 2018-Solar Energy

TL;DR: This paper presents a preliminary study on how to review solar irradiance and photovoltaic power forecasting using text mining, which serves as the first part of a forthcoming series of text mining applications in solar forecasting.

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348 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Solar Power Prediction Based on Satellite Images and Support Vector Machine

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Han Seung Jang¹, Kuk Yeol Bae¹, Hong-Shik Park¹, Dan Keun Sung¹•Institutions (1)

KAIST¹

21 Mar 2016-IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy

TL;DR: In this article, a solar power prediction model based on various satellite images and a support vector machine (SVM) learning scheme was proposed to forecast the motion vectors of clouds by utilizing satellite images of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs).

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Abstract: Penetration of solar energy into main grid has gradually increased in recent years due to a growing number of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) farms. The power output of these PV farms may fluctuate due to a wide variability of meteorological conditions, and, thus, we need to compensate for this effect in advance. In this paper, we propose a solar power prediction model based on various satellite images and a support vector machine (SVM) learning scheme. The motion vectors of clouds are forecasted by utilizing satellite images of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs). We analyze 4 years’ historical satellite images and utilize them to configure a large number of input and output data sets for the SVM learning. We compare the performance of the proposed SVM-based model, the conventional time-series model, and an artificial neural network (ANN) model in terms of prediction accuracy.

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250 citations

Cites background from "Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on..."

...Image processing methodologies using total sky imagers (TSIs) to analyze cloud movement and generate short-term forecasts of solar irradiance at the ground level were proposed in [13], [15], [17]....
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...The second category includes cloud detection technologies for solar irradiation prediction [13]–[16]....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Variability assessment and forecasting of renewables: A review for solar, wind, wave and tidal resources

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Joakim Widén¹, Nicole Carpman¹, Valeria Castellucci¹, David Lingfors¹, Jon Olauson¹, Flore Remouit¹, Mikael Bergkvist¹, Mårten Grabbe¹, Rafael Waters¹ - Show less +5 more•Institutions (1)

Uppsala University¹

01 Apr 2015-Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews

TL;DR: Variability Assessment and Forecasting of Renewables : A Review for Solar, Wind, Wave and Tidal Resources as discussed by the authors, a review for solar, wind, wave and tide resources.

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Abstract: Variability Assessment and Forecasting of Renewables : A Review for Solar, Wind, Wave and Tidal Resources

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245 citations

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References

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Book•

Solar engineering of thermal processes

[...]

John A. Duffie, William A. Beckman

01 Jan 1980

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an active and passive building heating system for solar thermal power systems, where the active system is designed by f--chart and the passive one by Utilizability Methods.

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Abstract: FUNDAMENTALS. Solar Radiation. Available Solar Radiation. Selected Heat Transfer Topics. Radiation Characteristics of Opaque Materials. Radiation Transmission Through Glazing: Absorbed Radiation. Flat--Plate Collectors. Concentrating Collectors. Energy Storage. Solar Process Loads. System Thermal Calculations. Solar Process Economics. APPLICATIONS. Solar Water Heating----Active and Passive. Building Heating----Active. Building Heating: Passive and Hybrid Methods. Cooling. Industrial Process Heat. Solar Thermal Power Systems. Solar Ponds: Evaporative Processes. THERMAL DESIGN METHODS. Simulations in Solar Process Design. Design of Active Systems by f--Chart. Design of Active Systems by Utilizability Methods. Design of Passive and Hybrid Heating Systems. Design of Photovoltaic Systems. Appendices. Author Index. Subject Index.

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9,391 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes

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John A. Duffie, William A. Beckman, Jon McGowan

01 Apr 1985-American Journal of Physics

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7,831 citations

"Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on..." refers methods in this paper

...The orientation of the shadow-band is determined using solar azimuth calculations obtained from Duffie and Beckman (2006)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

[...]

Adel Mellit, Alessandro Massi Pavan¹•Institutions (1)

University of Trieste¹

01 May 2010-Solar Energy

TL;DR: In this paper, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model was proposed to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiances and air temperature.

...read moreread less

749 citations

"Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on..." refers background or methods in this paper

...In addition to these physical model/image processing-based models, time series-based solar forecasting methods have also been extensively applied, (e.g. Mellit, 2008; Mellit and Pavan, 2010; Mellit et al., 2010; Martin et al., 2010; Cao and Lin, 2008; Sfetsos and Coonick, 2000; Marquez et al., 2013; Marquez and Coimbra, 2013) and validated over wide ranges of time horizons....
[...]
...In some of these time-series applications, direct cloud information is not used (Sfetsos and Coonick, 2000; Martin et al., 2010; Mellit and Pavan, 2010; Mellit et al., 2010; Marquez and Coimbra, 2013) while some incorporate cloud information as exogenous inputs (Cao and Lin, 2008; Marquez et al.,…...
[...]
...…physical model/image processing-based models, time series-based solar forecasting methods have also been extensively applied, (e.g. Mellit, 2008; Mellit and Pavan, 2010; Mellit et al., 2010; Martin et al., 2010; Cao and Lin, 2008; Sfetsos and Coonick, 2000; Marquez et al., 2013; Marquez and…...
[...]

Journal Article•DOI•

Irradiance Forecasting for the Power Prediction of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

[...]

Elke Lorenz¹, Johannes Hurka¹, Detlev Heinemann¹, Hans Georg Beyer•Institutions (1)

University of Oldenburg¹

28 Apr 2009-IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing

TL;DR: An approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts are presented.

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Abstract: The contribution of power production by photovoltaic (PV) systems to the electricity supply is constantly increasing. An efficient use of the fluctuating solar power production will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information is necessary for the management of the electricity grids and for solar energy trading. This paper presents an approach to predict regional PV power output based on forecasts up to three days ahead provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Focus of the paper is the description and evaluation of the approach of irradiance forecasting, which is the basis for PV power prediction. One day-ahead irradiance forecasts for single stations in Germany show a rRMSE of 36%. For regional forecasts, forecast accuracy is increasing in dependency on the size of the region. For the complete area of Germany, the rRMSE amounts to 13%. Besides the forecast accuracy, also the specification of the forecast uncertainty is an important issue for an effective application. We present and evaluate an approach to derive weather specific prediction intervals for irradiance forecasts. The accuracy of PV power prediction is investigated in a case study.

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637 citations

"Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on..." refers methods in this paper

...For the forecasting horizon of same-day to a few days ahead, NWP models have been evaluated in various locations (Perez et al., 2010; Lorenz et al., 2009; Marquez and Coimbra, 2011; Mathiesen and Kleissl, 2011; Changsong et al., 2011)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Predicting solar radiation at high resolutions: A comparison of time series forecasts

[...]

01 Mar 2009-Solar Energy

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used regressions in logs, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Unobserved Components models to forecast radiation over short time horizons.

...read moreread less

559 citations

"Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on..." refers methods in this paper

...The time-series forecasting methodologies have been applied successfully for 5–15 min (Reikard, 2009), 1-h (Cao and Lin, 2008; Sfetsos and Coonick, 2000; Martin et al....
[...]
...The time-series forecasting methodologies have been applied successfully for 5–15 min (Reikard, 2009), 1-h (Cao and Lin, 2008; Sfetsos and Coonick, 2000; Martin et al., 2010), and 24-h ahead (Mellit et al., 2010)....
[...]