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Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly-Assigned Judges
TL;DR: The authors used the incarceration tendency of randomly-assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism, and found that juvenile incarceration results in large decreases in the likelihood of high-school completion and large increases in adult incarceration.
Abstract: Over 130,000 juveniles are detained in the US each year with 70,000 in detention on any given day, yet little is known whether such a penalty deters future crime or interrupts social and human capital formation in a way that increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior. This paper uses the incarceration tendency of randomly-assigned judges as an instrumental variable to estimate causal effects of juvenile incarceration on high school completion and adult recidivism. Estimates based on over 35,000 juvenile offenders over a ten-year period from a large urban county in the US suggest that juvenile incarceration results in large decreases in the likelihood of high school completion and large increases in the likelihood of adult incarceration. These results are in stark contrast to the small effects typically found for adult incarceration, but consistent with larger impacts of policies aimed at adolescents.
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TL;DR: While machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals.
Abstract: Presented on October 24, 2016 at 10:00 a.m. in the Klaus Advanced Computing Building, room 1116
493 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of pretrial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes, using data from administrative court and tax records.
Abstract: Over 20 percent of prison and jail inmates in the United States are currently awaiting trial, but little is known about the impact of pretrial detention on defendants. This paper uses the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of pretrial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes. Using data from administrative court and tax records, we find that pretrial detention significantly increases the probability of conviction, primarily through an increase in guilty pleas. Pretrial detention has no net effect on future crime, but decreases formal sector employment and the receipt of employment- and tax-related government benefits. These results are consistent with (i) pretrial detention weakening defendants' bargaining positions during plea negotiations and (ii) a criminal conviction lowering defendants' prospects in the formal labor market. (JEL J23, J31, J65, K41, K42)
309 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth.
Abstract: We present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth. We study a program called Becoming a Man (BAM), developed by the nonprofit Youth Guidance, in two RCTs implemented in 2009-2010 and 2013-2015. In the two studies participation in the program reduced total arrests during the intervention period by 28-35%, reduced violent-crime arrests by 45-50%, improved school engagement, and in the first study where we have follow-up data, increased graduation rates by 12-19%. The third RCT tested a program with partially overlapping components carried out in the Cook County Juvenile Temporary Detention Center (JTDC), which reduced readmission rates to the facility by 21%. These large behavioral responses combined with modest program costs imply benefit-cost ratios for these interventions from 5-to-1 up to 30-to-1 or more. Our data on mechanisms are not ideal, but we find no positive evidence that these effects are due to changes in emotional intelligence or social skills, self-control or "grit," or a generic mentoring effect. We find suggestive support for the hypothesis that the programs work by helping youth slow down and reflect on whether their automatic thoughts and behaviors are well suited to the situation they are in, or whether the situation could be construed differently. JEL Codes: C91, C93, D03, D1, I24, I3, I32, K42.
237 citations
TL;DR: This paper developed a new test for identifying racial bias in the context of bail decisions, which predicts that rates of pretrial misconduct will be identical for marginal white and marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially unbiased.
Abstract: This article develops a new test for identifying racial bias in the context of bail decisions—a high-stakes setting with large disparities between white and black defendants. We motivate our analysis using Becker’s model of racial bias, which predicts that rates of pretrial misconduct will be identical for marginal white and marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially unbiased. In contrast, marginal white defendants will have higher rates of misconduct than marginal black defendants if bail judges are racially biased, whether that bias is driven by racial animus, inaccurate racial stereotypes, or any other form of bias. To test the model, we use the release tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to identify the relevant race-specific misconduct rates. Estimates from Miami and Philadelphia show that bail judges are racially biased against black defendants, with substantially more racial bias among both inexperienced and part-time judges. We find suggestive evidence that this racial bias is driven by bail judges relying on inaccurate stereotypes that exaggerate the relative danger of releasing black defendants.
218 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used the placement frequency of child protection investigators as an instrument to identify causal effects of foster care placement on adult arrest, conviction, and imprisonment rates, and found that school-aged children who were on the margin of placement had lower adult arrest rates when they remained at home.
Abstract: Nearly 20% of young prison inmates spent part of their youth in foster care - the placement of abused or neglected children with substitute families. Little is known whether foster care placement reduces or increases the likelihood of criminal behavior. This paper uses the placement frequency of child protection investigators as an instrument to identify causal effects of foster care placement on adult arrest, conviction, and imprisonment rates. A unique dataset that links child abuse investigation data to criminal justice data in Illinois allows a comparison of adult crime outcomes across individuals who were investigated for abuse or neglect as children. Families are effectively randomized to child protection investigators through a rotational assignment process, and child characteristics are similar across investigators. Nevertheless, investigator placement frequencies are predictive of subsequent foster care placement, and the results suggest that school-aged children who are on the margin of placement have lower adult arrest rates when they remain at home.
191 citations
References
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TL;DR: In fact, some common properties are shared by practically all legislation, and these properties form the subject matter of this essay as discussed by the authors, which is the basis for this essay. But, in spite of such diversity, some commonsense properties are not shared.
Abstract: Since the turn of the twentieth century, legislation in Western countries has expanded rapidly to reverse the brief dominance of laissez faire during the nineteenth century. The state no longer merely protects against violations of person and property through murder, rape, or burglary but also restricts ‘discrimination’ against certain minorities, collusive business arrangements, ‘jaywalking’, travel, the materials used in construction, and thousands of other activities. The activities restricted not only are numerous but also range widely, affecting persons in very different pursuits and of diverse social backgrounds, education levels, ages, races, etc. Moreover, the likelihood that an offender will be discovered and convicted and the nature and extent of punishments differ greatly from person to person and activity to activity. Yet, in spite of such diversity, some common properties are shared by practically all legislation, and these properties form the subject matter of this essay.
9,613 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1974
TL;DR: In this article, the Second Edition, the authors present a survey of job search and economic theory in the context of information flow and the problem of embeddedness in the job search process.
Abstract: Preface to the Second Edition Preface Acknowledgments Introduction Pt. 1: Toward Causal Models Ch. 1: "Job Search" and Economic Theory Ch. 2: Contacts and Their Information Ch. 3: The Dynamics of Information Flow Ch. 4: The Dynamics of Vacancy Structure Ch. 5: Contacts: Acquisition and Maintenance Ch. 6: Career Structure Ch. 7: Some Theoretical Implications Pt. 2: Mobility and Society Ch. 8: Mobility and Organizations Ch. 9: Comparative Perspectives Ch. 10: Applications Afterword 1994: Reconsiderations and a New Agenda Appendix A: Design and Conduct of the Study Appendix B: Coding Rules and Problems Appendix C: Letters and Interview Schedules Appendix D: Economic Action and Social Structure: The Problem of Embeddedness References Index
3,814 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: Weak instruments arise when the instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) regression are weakly correlated with the included endogenous variables as mentioned in this paper, and weak instruments correspond to weak identification of some or all of the unknown parameters.
Abstract: Weak instruments arise when the instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) regression are weakly correlated with the included endogenous variables. In generalized method of moments (GMM), more generally, weak instruments correspond to weak identification of some or all of the unknown parameters. Weak identification leads to GMM statistics with nonnormal distributions, even in large samples, so that conventional IV or GMM inferences are misleading. Fortunately, various procedures are now available for detecting and handling weak instruments in the linear IV model and, to a lesser degree, in nonlinear GMM.
3,378 citations
TL;DR: Weak instruments arise when the instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) regression are weakly correlated with the included endogenous variables as discussed by the authors, and weak instruments correspond to weak identification of some or all of the unknown parameters.
Abstract: Weak instruments arise when the instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) regression are weakly correlated with the included endogenous variables. In generalized method of moments (GMM), more generally, weak instruments correspond to weak identification of some or all of the unknown parameters. Weak identification leads to GMM statistics with nonnormal distributions, even in large samples, so that conventional IV or GMM inferences are misleading. Fortunately, various procedures are now available for detecting and handling weak instruments in the linear IV model and, to a lesser degree, in nonlinear GMM.
3,038 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables and showed that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect.
Abstract: We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
2,940 citations