Large scale climate oscillations and mesoscale surface meteorological variability in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the relationship between available surface climatological variables connected to evapotranspiration and climatic oscillations using canonical correlation analysis (CCA).
Abstract: Summary The “water wars” between Alabama, Georgia, and Florida over water restrictions and allocation in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (ACF) stem, in part, from the occurrence of several droughts in the 1980s, the dramatic increase in water use in the northern basin around Atlanta, and increased agricultural usage in the central basin. This study examines relationships between available surface climatological variables connected to evapotranspiration and climatic oscillations using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Canonical loadings and cross loadings from CCA are evaluated in two tests using temperature and precipitation data and four climate oscillations – the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). In the first test, the six-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and all four seasons of the four climate oscillations from every subbasin in the ACF are evaluated, revealing relationships mostly with the AMO and NAO, and primarily with temperatures. In order to focus more on precipitation and the variance among the different temporal scales of the SPI, Test Two looks at the relationship between all four SPI variations and all four seasons of the climate oscillations from the extreme northern and southern subbasins. Test Two shows the twenty-four month SPI has the largest loadings and variance explained, which may be contributed to the longer frequencies in the AMO and PDO. The southern part of the basin is largely influenced by SOI, while the northern subbasin the AMO and PDO. Concurrent relationships between the same season of the climate oscillation and meteorological variable confirm previously researched directions of the relationships between the oscillation and precipitation or temperature in both Test One and Test Two.
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TL;DR: In this article, a nonstationary Gamma distribution with climate indices as covariates was developed for fitting precipitation data and then used for calculating a Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI).
Abstract: Many drought indices were proposed to describe drought characteristics, but only few had considered environmental changes. In an attempt to incorporate climate change into meteorological drought index, a nonstationary Gamma distribution with climate indices as covariates was developed for fitting precipitation data and then used for calculating a Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index (NSPI) in this study. The performances of the NSPI were compared with those of the traditional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), showing that the NSPI capable of taking climate variations into account is more robust than the traditional SPI. Focusing on the Luanhe River basin, historical drought events were described and assessed based on the NSPI and traditional SPI. Moreover, drought characteristics, including drought frequency, peak, duration, and magnitude, were calculated by using the two indices. The results in this study indicated that NSPI using climate indices as covariates could capture drought characteristics in the Luanhe River basin, and this new drought index provides a new concept for constructing the drought index that can effectively adapt to a changing environment.
37 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, a probabilistic analysis approach by means of a state-of-the-art Copula-based joint probability distribution is developed to characterize the aggregated behaviors for large-scale climate patterns and their connections to precipitation.
Abstract: Identifying the links between variations in large-scale climate patterns and precipitation is of tremendous assistance in characterizing surplus or deficit of precipitation, which is especially important for evaluation of local water resources and ecosystems in semi-humid and semi-arid regions. Restricted by current limited knowledge on underlying mechanisms, statistical correlation methods are often used rather than physical based model to characterize the connections. Nevertheless, available correlation methods are generally unable to reveal the interactions among a wide range of climate oscillations and associated effects on precipitation, especially on extreme precipitation. In this work, a probabilistic analysis approach by means of a state-of-the-art Copula-based joint probability distribution is developed to characterize the aggregated behaviors for large-scale climate patterns and their connections to precipitation. This method is employed to identify the complex connections between climate patterns (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) and seasonal precipitation over a typical semi-humid and semi-arid region, the Haihe River Basin in China. Results show that the interactions among multiple climate oscillations are non-uniform in most seasons and phases. Certain joint extreme phases can significantly trigger extreme precipitation (flood and drought) owing to the amplification effect among climate oscillations.
22 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, Wang et al. presented a new probabilistic analysis approach by means of a state-of-the-art Copula-based joint probability distribution to characterize the aggregated behaviors for large-scale climate patterns and their connections to precipitation.
Abstract: The interactions between a range of large-scale climate oscillations and their quantitative links with precipitation are basic prerequisites to understand the hydrologic cycle. Restricted by the current limited knowledge on underlying mechanisms, statistical methods (e.g. correlation methods) are often used rather than a physical-based model. However, available correlation methods generally fail to explain the interactions among a wide range of climate oscillations and associated effects on the water cycle. This study presents a new probabilistic analysis approach by means of a state-of-the-art Copula-based joint probability distribution to characterize the aggregated behaviors for large-scale climate patterns and their connections to precipitation. We applied this method to identify the complex connections between climate patterns (westerly circulation (WEC), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) and seasonal precipitation over a typical endorheic region, the Tarim River Basin in central Asia. Results show that the interactions among multiple climate oscillations are non-uniform in most seasons and phases. Certain joint extreme phases can significantly trigger extremes (flood and drought) owing to the amplification effect among climate oscillations. We further find that the connection is mainly due to the complex effects of climatic and topographical factors.
15 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the influence of low-frequency oscillations on streamflow variability in small tropical coastal mountain rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia, was evaluated.
Abstract: . This study evaluated the influence of
low-frequency oscillations, that are linked to large-scale
oceanographic–atmospheric processes, on streamflow variability in small
tropical coastal mountain rivers of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta,
Colombia. We used data from six rivers that had > 32 years of
complete, continuous monthly streamflow records. This investigation employed
spectral analyses to (1) explore temporal characteristics of streamflow
variability, (2) estimate the net contribution to the energy spectrum of
low-frequency oscillations to streamflow anomalies, and (3) analyze the
linkages between streamflow anomalies and large-scale, low-frequency
oceanographic–atmospheric processes. Wavelet analyses indicate that the
8–12-year component exhibited a quasi-stationary state, with a peak of
maximum power between 1985 and 2005. These oscillations were nearly in phase
in all rivers. Maximum power peaks occurred for the Palomino and Rancheria
rivers in 1985 and 1995, respectively. The wavelet spectrum highlights a
change in river variability patterns between 1995 and 2015, characterized by
a shift towards the low-frequency oscillations' domain (8–12 years). The net
contribution of these oscillations to the energy spectrum was as high as
51 %, a value much larger than previously thought for rivers in
northwestern South America. The simultaneous occurrence of hydrologic
oscillations, as well as the increase in the amplitude of the 8–12-year
band, defined periods of extremely anomalous wet seasons during 1989–1990,
1998–2002 and 2010–2011, reflecting the role of low-frequency oscillations
in modulating streamflow variability in these rivers. Cross-wavelet transform
and wavelet coherence revealed high common powers and significant coherences
in low-frequency bands ( >96 months) between streamflow anomalies and
Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and
the Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA). These results show the role of
large-scale, low-frequency oceanographic–climate processes in modulating the
long-term hydrological variability of these rivers.
10 citations
References
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01 Aug 1996
TL;DR: A separation theorem for convex fuzzy sets is proved without requiring that the fuzzy sets be disjoint.
Abstract: A fuzzy set is a class of objects with a continuum of grades of membership. Such a set is characterized by a membership (characteristic) function which assigns to each object a grade of membership ranging between zero and one. The notions of inclusion, union, intersection, complement, relation, convexity, etc., are extended to such sets, and various properties of these notions in the context of fuzzy sets are established. In particular, a separation theorem for convex fuzzy sets is proved without requiring that the fuzzy sets be disjoint.
50,974 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal timescales.
Abstract: Evidence gleaned from the instrumental record of climate data identifies a robust, recurring pattern of ocean–atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin. Over the past century, the amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at interannual-to-interdecadal timescales. There is evidence of reversals in the prevailing polarity of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977; the last two reversals correspond to dramatic shifts in salmon production regimes in the North Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern also affects coastal sea and continental surface air temperatures, as well as streamflow in major west coast river systems, from Alaska to California.
6,325 citations
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01 Jan 1993
TL;DR: The definition of drought has continually been a stumbling block for drought monitoring and analysis as mentioned in this paper, mainly related to the time period over which deficits accumulate and to the connection of the deficit in precipitation to deficits in usable water sources and the impacts that ensue.
Abstract: 1.0 INTRODUCTION Five practical issues become important in any analysis of drought. These include: 1) time scale, 2) probability, 3) precipitation deficit, 4) application of the definition to precipitation and to the five water supply variables, and 5) the relationship of the definition to the impacts of drought. Frequency, duration and intensity of drought all become functions that depend on the implicitly or explicitly established time scales. Our experience in providing drought information to a collection of decision makers in Colorado is that they have a need for current conditions expressed in terms of probability, water deficit, and water supply as a percent of average using recent climatic history (the last 30 to 100 years) as the basis for comparison. No single drought definition or analysis method has emerged that addresses all these issues well. Of the variety of definitions and drought monitoring methods used in the past, by far the most widely used in the United States is the Palmer Drought Index (Palmer, 1965), but its weaknesses (Alley, 1984) frequently limit its wise application. For example, time scale is not defined for the Palmer Index but does inherently exist. The definition of drought has continually been a stumbling block for drought monitoring and analysis. Wilhite and Glantz (1985) completed a thorough review of dozens of drought definitions and identified six overall categories: meteorological, climatological, atmospheric, agricultural, hydrologic and water management. Dracup et al. (1980) also reviewed definitions. All points of view seem to agree that drought is a condition of insufficient moisture caused by a deficit in precipitation over some time period. Difficulties are primarily related to the time period over which deficits accumulate and to the connection of the deficit in precipitation to deficits in usable water sources and the impacts that ensue.
5,672 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) was used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability.
Abstract: Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights is used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability. The analysis is detailed and comprehensive, in that 1) a high resolution, approximately equal-area 358-point grid is used for the virtually maximum possible 35-year period of record, 2) a positive bias in the NMC data base in the early 1950s in the subtropics is largely eliminated for the first time, and 3) homogeneous, separate analyses of each month of the year are carried out, detailing the mouth-to-month changes in the dominant circulation patterns. Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies except that some less obvious patterns are identified and further detail of the better-known patterns is provided. Two north-south dipole patterns are found over the Pacific Ocean (West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific pattern) and over the Atla...
3,050 citations