scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal ArticleDOI

Leaf onset in the northern hemisphere triggered by daytime temperature

TL;DR: This work shows that the interannual anomalies of LUD during 1982–2011 are triggered by daytime (Tmax) more than by nighttime temperature (Tmin), and suggests a new conceptual framework of leaf onset using daytime temperature to improve the performance of phenology modules in current Earth system models.
Abstract: Recent warming significantly advanced leaf onset in the northern hemisphere. This signal cannot be accurately reproduced by current models parameterized by daily mean temperature (Tmean). Here using in situ observations of leaf unfolding dates (LUDs) in Europe and the United States, we show that the interannual anomalies of LUD during 1982–2011 are triggered by daytime (Tmax) more than by nighttime temperature (Tmin). Furthermore, an increase of 1 Ci nTmax would advance LUD by 4.7 days in Europe and 4.3 days in the United States, more than the conventional temperature sensitivity estimated from Tmean. The triggering role of Tmax, rather than the Tmin or Tmean variable, is also supported by analysis of the large-scale patterns of satellite-derived vegetation green-up in spring in the northern hemisphere (430N). Our results suggest a new conceptual framework of leaf onset using daytime temperature to improve the performance of phenology modules in current Earth system

Content maybe subject to copyright    Report

Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assessed the ability of several existing state-of-the-art phenological models to estimate VGD across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and then modified the existing models by adding environmental constraints identified by partial least squares analyses.

48 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduced plant phenophase as a "bridge" to assess the impact of climate change on autumn foliage viewing tourism in Japan, and found that from 1978 to 2016, the autumnal foliage colouration of four cities in Japan was delayed, the duration of the autumn leaf discolouration was significantly shortened, and only one city experienced a significant delay in leaf-falling.

47 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the global inter-annual hysteretic responses of vegetation to asymmetric warming over the period of 1982-2013, and the best time lags that ATmax/ATmin had on NPP and the optimal correlations between ATmax and NPP were analyzed by time-lag analyses.

46 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
Chen Chen1, Bin He1, Lanlan Guo1, Yafeng Zhang1, Xiaoming Xie1, Ziyue Chen1 

46 citations


Cites background from "Leaf onset in the northern hemisphe..."

  • ...For example, spring and autumn warming have stimulated an earlier onset and a delayed end to the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), resulting in an extension of the growing season and an increase in ecosystem productivity (Chen & Weber, 2014; Fu et al., 2015; Fu, Piao, et al., 2017; Park et al., 2016; Piao et al., 2015; Zeng et al., 2014)....

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper used ground measurements of phenological events across the USA, and used it to calibrate and evaluate a suite of phenology models, with additional chilling requirements for spring phenology and photoperiod limitation for autumn.
Abstract: . Phenology is experiencing dramatic changes over deciduous forests in the USA. Estimates of trends in phenology on the continental scale are uncertain, however, with studies failing to agree on both the magnitude and spatial distribution of trends in spring and autumn. This is due to the sparsity of in situ records, uncertainties associated with remote sensing data, and the regional focus of many studies. It has been suggested that reported trends are a result of recent temperature changes, though multiple processes are thought to be involved and the nature of the temperature forcing remains unknown. To date, no study has directly attributed long-term phenological trends to individual forcings across the USA through integrating observations with models. Here, we construct an extensive database of ground measurements of phenological events across the USA, and use it to calibrate and evaluate a suite of phenology models. The models use variations of the accumulative temperature summation, with additional chilling requirements for spring phenology and photoperiod limitation for autumn. Including a chilling requirement or photoperiod limitation does not improve model performance, suggesting that temperature change, especially in spring and autumn, is likely the dominant driver of the observed trend during the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends are not uniform over the contiguous USA, with a significant advance of 0.34 day yr−1 for the spring budburst in the east, a delay of 0.15 day yr−1 for the autumn dormancy onset in the northeast and west, but no evidence of change elsewhere. Relative to the 1980s, the growing season in the 2000s is extended by about 1 week (3–4 %) in the east, New England, and the upper Rocky Mountains forests. Additional sensitivity tests show that intraspecific variations may not influence the predicted phenological trends. These results help reconcile conflicting reports of phenological trends in the literature, and directly attribute observed trends to long-term changes in temperature.

46 citations

References
More filters
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.

32,826 citations

01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: In this paper, a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions are presented, with an emphasis on physical science issues.
Abstract: Report summarizing climate change issues in 2013, with an emphasis on physical science. It includes a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions.

7,858 citations

01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

7,720 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971-2000) and concluded that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition.
Abstract: Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade � 1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species’ phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding

2,457 citations

Related Papers (5)