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Journal ArticleDOI

Leaf onset in the northern hemisphere triggered by daytime temperature

TL;DR: This work shows that the interannual anomalies of LUD during 1982–2011 are triggered by daytime (Tmax) more than by nighttime temperature (Tmin), and suggests a new conceptual framework of leaf onset using daytime temperature to improve the performance of phenology modules in current Earth system models.
Abstract: Recent warming significantly advanced leaf onset in the northern hemisphere. This signal cannot be accurately reproduced by current models parameterized by daily mean temperature (Tmean). Here using in situ observations of leaf unfolding dates (LUDs) in Europe and the United States, we show that the interannual anomalies of LUD during 1982–2011 are triggered by daytime (Tmax) more than by nighttime temperature (Tmin). Furthermore, an increase of 1 Ci nTmax would advance LUD by 4.7 days in Europe and 4.3 days in the United States, more than the conventional temperature sensitivity estimated from Tmean. The triggering role of Tmax, rather than the Tmin or Tmean variable, is also supported by analysis of the large-scale patterns of satellite-derived vegetation green-up in spring in the northern hemisphere (430N). Our results suggest a new conceptual framework of leaf onset using daytime temperature to improve the performance of phenology modules in current Earth system

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Different time lag effects from different climatic factors on phenological processes in spring are confirmed, and it is suggested that both Tmax and Tmin should be considered to improve the performance of spring phenology models.
Abstract: Vegetation phenology plays a critical role in the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. However, the relationship between the phenology of winter wheat and hydrothermal factors is inadequate, especially in typical agricultural areas. In this study, the possible effects of preseason climate changes on the green-up date (GUD) of winter wheat over the North China Plain (NCP) was investigated, using the MODIS EVI 8-day time-series data from 2000 to 2015, as well as the concurrent monthly mean temperature (Tm), mean maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) and total precipitation (TP) data. Firstly, we quantitatively identified the time lag effects of winter wheat GUD responses to different climatic factors; then, the major driving factors for winter wheat GUD were further explored by applying multiple linear regression models. The results showed that the time lag effects of winter wheat GUD response to climatic factors were site- and climatic parameters-dependent. Negative temperature effects with about a 3-month time lag dominated in most of the NCP, whereas positive temperature effects with a zero-month lag were most common in some of the southern parts. In comparison, total precipitation had a negative zero-month lag effect in the northern region, but two lagged months occurred in the south. Regarding the time lag effects, the explanation power of climatic factors improved relatively by up to 77%, and the explanation area increased by 41.20%. Additionally, change in winter wheat GUD was primarily determined by temperature rather than by TP, with a marked spatial heterogeneity of the Tmax and Tmin effect. Our results confirmed different time lag effects from different climatic factors on phenological processes in spring, and further suggested that both Tmax and Tmin should be considered to improve the performance of spring phenology models.

11 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is concluded that climate warming will affect the niches of sympatric species in mixed forests subjected to seasonal drought, thus increasing competition and altering structure and composition of the stands in dry regions.
Abstract: Warming-induced drought stress leads to convergent and negative growth responses to temperature between sympatric tree species, implying an increasing interspecific competition for soil moisture. In mixed forests, sympatric tree species avoid competition by partitioning their niches according to available environment resources. We raise the hypothesis that climate warming leads to a convergence in growth responses to climate, thus increasing the competition among sympatric species in drought-prone forests. In this study, we selected a mixed forest located at ca. 3600 m a.s.l in the Baima Snow Mountains, an inner dry valley of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We measured width of the tree rings produced during 1910–2016 in 60 trees belonging to three sympatric species: Abies georgei, Picea likiangensis, and Betula delavayi. We analyzed the changes in radial growth and their responses to climate. We detected shifts in the responses to climate after the 1990s. The radial growth of all species was positively correlated with precipitation from 1964 to 1990, but negatively correlated with March–June temperature from 1991 to 2016. Compared to the period 1964–1990, convergent and negative growth responses to warmer temperatures in the period 1991–2016 probably reflect less available soil moisture for growing in this mixed forest. We conclude that climate warming will affect the niches of sympatric species in mixed forests subjected to seasonal drought, thus increasing competition and altering structure and composition of the stands in dry regions.

11 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the effect of urban heat island on vegetation growth and carbon sequestration in a subtropical city of Shenzhen and showed that strengthened warming temperature by urban heat islands could constrain vegetation carbon sequentration in hot seasons and promote vegetation growth in cool seasons.
Abstract: Urban heat island could strengthen the warming trend of air temperature and cause the change of carbon cycle of urban ecosystems. The primary goal of this study was to explore the above phenomena in a subtropical city of Shenzhen. We selected four sites along a thermal gradient of the city and ran an ecological model to simulate hourly gross primary productivity and net ecosystem change of carbon for the purpose of analyzing the difference in the effects of urban heat island on vegetation growth and carbon sequestration. The work was also intended to help us understand future warming effects on carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystem in subtropical and tropical areas. The results of the modeling experiments showed that strengthened warming temperature by urban heat island could constrain vegetation carbon sequestration in hot seasons and promote vegetation growth in cool seasons. The seasonal sequence of carbon sequestration for the subtropical city was: spring > summer > autumn > winter. For the study period, the maximum amount of monthly carbon sequestration by urban ecosystems happened in May. In summer and autumn, vegetation gross primary productivity and carbon sequestration first increased with the increase in temperature, and then decreased after hourly temperature reached a threshold value. In addition, the number of days with high temperature constraints on vegetation carbon sequestration were significantly higher in the two urban sites than those in the two suburban sites. The above phenomena was driven by the fact that strengthened warming by urban heat island constrained vegetation photosynthesis and transpiration and caused the increase of ecosystem respirations. The above results indicated that the strengthened warming by urban heat island could create additional constraints on carbon sequestration of urban ecosystems in the subtropical regions. The results implied that future global warming may cause the weakening of vegetation carbon sequestration in the subtropical and tropical ecosystems.

11 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Predicting the likely variation in growing season length (GSL) across populations under current and future climate scenarios found that Northern populations are likely to increase their productivity as warmer conditions will enable them to extend their growing season.

10 citations

References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.

32,826 citations

01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: In this paper, a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions are presented, with an emphasis on physical science issues.
Abstract: Report summarizing climate change issues in 2013, with an emphasis on physical science. It includes a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions.

7,858 citations

01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Abstract: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Carlos Gay García, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Kevin Hennessy, Saleemul Huq, Roger Jones, Lucka Kajfež Bogataj, David Karoly, Richard Klein, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Rodel Lasco, Geoff Love, Xianfu Lu, Graciela Magrín, Luis José Mata, Roger McLean, Bettina Menne, Guy Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, Monirul Qader Mirza, José Moreno, Linda Mortsch, Isabelle Niang-Diop, Robert Nicholls, Béla Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Anthony Nyong, Michael Oppenheimer, Jean Palutikof, Martin Parry, Anand Patwardhan, Patricia Romero Lankao, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Stephen Schneider, Serguei Semenov, Joel Smith, John Stone, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, David Vaughan, Coleen Vogel, Thomas Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Shaohong Wu, Gary Yohe

7,720 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971-2000) and concluded that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition.
Abstract: Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade � 1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species’ phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding

2,457 citations

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