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Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices

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In this article, the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against house-price and credit cycles are studied, and the authors find that policy that responds to changes in financial variables is socially optimal.
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This article is published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.The article was published on 2013-08-01 and is currently open access. It has received 246 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Monetary policy & Interest rate.

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The Interaction between Capital Requirements and Monetary Policy

TL;DR: In this paper, the interaction between capital requirements and monetary policy is assessed by means of simple rules in a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring a banking sector, and the benefits of introducing capital requirements become sizeable when financial shocks, which affect the supply of loans, are important drivers of economic dynamics; the availability of capital requirements as a policy tool yields a significant gain in terms of macroeconomic stabilization.
Posted Content

Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: How Closely Interlinked?

TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the answer will depend on three questions: (i) how effective is macro-prudential policy in maintaining financial stability, (ii) what is the effect of monetary policy on risk taking and financial stability; and (iii) the risk of financial dominance, i.e., the risk that financial stability considerations undermine the credibility of the central bank's price stability mandate.
Journal ArticleDOI

News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

TL;DR: The authors discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating their relevance.
Journal ArticleDOI

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms

TL;DR: In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing was used to show that strong monetary reactions to accelerator mechanisms that push up credit growth and house prices can help macroeconomic stability, and using a macro-prudential instrument specifically designed to dampen credit market cycles would also provide stabilization benefits when an economy faces financial sector or housing demand shocks.
Journal ArticleDOI

Should Monetary Policy Lean Against the Wind? An Analysis Based on a DSGE Model with Banking

TL;DR: The authors analyzes whether Taylor rules augmented with asset prices and credit can improve upon a standard rule in terms of macroeconomic stabilization in a DSGE with both a firms' balance-sheet channel and a bank-lending channel and in which the spread between lending and policy rates endogenously depends on banks' leverage.
References
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The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework

TL;DR: This article developed a dynamic general equilibrium model that is intended to help clarify the role of credit market frictions in business fluctuations, from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint, and the model is a synthesis of the leading approaches in the literature.
Book

Interest and prices : foundations of a theory of monetary policy

TL;DR: Woodford as discussed by the authors proposes a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets, arguing that effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing.
Book

Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy

TL;DR: Woodford as mentioned in this paper proposes a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets, arguing that effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing.
Journal ArticleDOI

Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08

TL;DR: The authors summarizes and explains the main events of the liquidity and credit crunch in 2007-08, starting with the trends leading up to the crisis and explaining how four different amplification mechanisms magnified losses in the mortgage market into large dislocations and turmoil in financial markets.
Book

Numerical methods in economics

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present techniques from the numerical analysis and applied mathematics literatures and show how to use them in economic analyses, including linear equations, iterative methods, optimization, nonlinear equations, approximation methods, numerical integration and differentiation, and Monte Carlo methods.
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Frequently Asked Questions (20)
Q1. What have the authors contributed in "Leaning against boom-bust cycles in credit and housing prices" ?

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing prices and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. 

The goal of this paper is to assess alternative policies in terms of their effectiveness in mitigating boom-bust cycles and macroeconomic volatility and their impact on welfare. 

The solid line with dots and the dotted line allow only for a response to current and expected future inflation, respectively; the solid and dashed lines allow also for an interest-rate response to variations in housing prices and credit, respectively.9 

The authors find that strict inflation targeting delivers high volatility of both housing prices and the loan-to-GDP ratio and is detrimental to welfare relative to an estimated rule. 

The recent financial crisis, which was ignited by the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States, has forced central banks to reconsider their policy framework. 

In fact, a strong anti-inflationary stance exacerbates macroeconomic fluctuations because it makes the real rate extremely volatile. 

In their framework a strict anti-inflationary stance delivers higher volatility of both housing prices and the loan-to GDP ratio and lower welfare relative to the estimated rule. 

5 Angelini, Neri and Panetta (2010) use ad-hoc loss functions to show that, compared to capital requirement rules, LTV rules are more effective in reducing the variability of the debt-to-GDP ratio. 

As suggested earlier, a certain degree of (positive) inflation volatility is optimal in their model as it helps smoothing out the real effects of changes in nominal debt. 

The authors assume that, under strict anti-inflationary stance, the monetary authority targets only inflation and credibly maintains it constant without deviating from the target. 

In order not to neglect welfare effects occurring during the transition from one stochastic steady state to another, the authors compute the welfare implied by the different rules conditional on the initial state being the deterministic steady state. 

In particular, the second-order approximate solution for the welfare functions, V it , takes a simple form V it = f(σ 2) , where σ2 is the variance of the shocks. 

Mendicino and Pescatori (2008) study ex-ante optimal interest-rate rules under a combination of shocks and show that, in the presence of nominal debt, monetary policy can avoid the welfare-reducing redistribution generated by nominal contracts by stabilizing the real interest rate, thereby allowing agents to share risk optimally. 

The authors explore the welfare performance of operational rules that determine either the interest rate or the LTV ratio as a function of observable macroeconomic variables. 

The other parameters are kept constant and equal to the estimated values, in the case of rY and rR, and to the welfare improving responses for rB and rQ.volatility of household debt is coupled with higher volatility of inflation. 

The literature on asset-pricemovements and monetary policy relies mostly on models of exogenous bubbles, as in Bernanke and Gertler (2001) and Gilchrist and Leahy (2002). 

Since the insurgence, size and burst of the bubble are exogenously determined, these models do not allow for any feedback from the conduct of monetary policy to the occurrence and the magnitude of boom-bust cycles in asset prices. 

First of all, the reaction of housing prices and household debt is dampened by adding an indicator of potential vulnerabilities in the housing market such as credit growth or housing price inflation. 

There is an ongoing debate over whether the monetary authority should react to financial variables to avoid bubbles in asset prices and large variations in credit. 

The effectiveness of alternative macro-prudential policies is measured both in terms of the volatility of the debt-to-GDP ratio and the welfare of the agents in the model.