Lithium availability and future production outlooks

TLDR: In this paper, the authors have used different methods to estimate whether the lithium production in the United States will reach a certain level of production, in part due to the increasing interest in lithium-ion batteries.

About: This article is published in Applied Energy.The article was published on 2013-10-01 and is currently open access. It has received 586 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Lithium.

Figures

Figure 2. Cumulative share of global resources by deposits. The ten largest deposits contain 70% of world lithium resources.

Table 5. Comparison of published lithium assessments.

Table 1. General characteristics of Li-bearing minerals. Amblygonite, Eucryptite, lepidolite, petalite, spodumene and zinnwaldite are pegmatites while hectorite and jadarite are more claylike minerals.

Table 9. Estimates of needed lithium amounts for alternative vehicle batteries. Kushnir and Sandén [18] have a detailed description about lithium content in different batteries, and use an estimate of 160 g Li/kWh, and a 9 kWh battery for a PHEV and a 36 kWh battery for an EV.

Table 2. Properties for known lithium mineral deposits.

Figure 8. The total lithium demand of a constant current lithium demand combined with growth of electric vehicles according to IEA’s blue map scenario [101] assuming a demand for 1.4 kg of lithium per PHEV and 4.0 kg per EV. The span of forecasted production levels range from the base case Gompertz model to the high case logistic model.

Frequently asked questions

Q1. What is the first step towards forming the desired end product of lithium carbonate?

Magnesium prevents lithium chloride to be formed, which is the first step towards forming the desired end product of lithium carbonate [46]. 

Q2. What makes it desirable to move away from fossil energy dependence?

Increasing oil prices, concerns about a possible peak in oil production and problems with anthropogenic global warming makes it desirable to move away from fossil energy dependence. 

Q3. How long would it take to build a capacity for the recycling to take place?

If it would become economical to recycle lithium from batteries it would take time to build a capacity for the recycling to take place. 

Q4. What was the reason for the closure of many pegmatite mines?

The Chilean company SQM quickly became market leaders due to very low production costs, while many pegmatite mines were forced to close. 

Q5. What is the likely scenario for the production of lithium in the world?

The authors suggest that it is very unlikely that seawater or lakes will become a practical and economic source of lithium, mainly due to the high Mg/Li ratio and low concentrations if lithium, meaning that large quantities of water would have to be processed. 

Q6. What is the potential for lithium production to increase?

The total production of lithium could potentially increase significantly if high rates of recycling were implemented of the used lithium, which is mentioned in many studies. 

Q7. What are the advantages of lithium-based cells?

Lithium-based cells, such as Li-ion batteries, are lighter and offer several advantages in comparison, such as higher efficiency and lower weight. 

Q8. What is the likely scenario for lithium availability?

If large parts of the car fleet will run on electricity and rely on lithium based batteries in the coming decades, it is possible, and maybe even likely, that lithium availability will be a limiting factor. 

Q9. What is the main problem with the lithium?

The concentration of lithium metal appears to be decreasing, which could make it more expensive and difficult to extract the lithium in the future. 

Q10. What is the depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources?

The depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources, denoted 𝑑𝑅𝑅𝑅,𝑡, describes how fast the reserves are extracted and can be expressed as an annual percentage produced of the remaining reserves (see Equation 6). 

Q11. How long is the lithium battery expected to last?

the battery lifetime is often projected to be 10 years or more, and to expect any significant amounts of lithium to be recycled within this period of time is simply not realistic for that reason either. 

Q12. How many Mt are reasonable as a reference case for the global reserves in the near and?

From data compilation and analysis of 112 deposits, this study concludes that 15 Mt are reasonable as a reference case for the global reserves in the near and medium term. 

Q13. What is the way to avoid curve fits?

This helps avoiding curve fits that are mathematically correct but practically unrealistic with absurdly high depletion rates, far outside the realm of real world mineral exploitation patterns. 

Q14. What is the main weakness of the concept of cumulative availability?

This concept has its merits for describing theoretical availability, but the fact that the concept is based on average cost, not marginal cost, has been described as a major weakness, making cumulative availability curves disregard the real cost structure and has little – if any – relevance for future price and production rate [37].