Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
University of Exeter1, ETH Zurich2, Bureau of Meteorology3, Université catholique de Louvain4, China Meteorological Administration5, Iowa State University6, Met Office7, Joseph Fourier University8, South African Weather Service9, Climate Central10, University of Victoria11, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory12
01 Jan 2013-pp 1029-1136
TL;DR: The authors assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.
Abstract: This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system. Changes are expressed with respect to a baseline period of 1986–2005, unless otherwise stated.
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University of Florida1, University of Bonn2, Institut national de la recherche agronomique3, Blaise Pascal University4, Stanford University5, Prince of Songkla University6, Agricultural Research Service7, University of Arizona8, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center9, Kansas State University10, International Water Management Institute11, Washington State University12, Michigan State University13, CGIAR14, University of Leeds15, Counterintelligence Field Activity16, Spanish National Research Council17, University of Tübingen18, University of Guelph19, University of Maryland, College Park20, Texas A&M University21, Aarhus University22, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research23, Indian Agricultural Research Institute24, Goddard Institute for Space Studies25, Rothamsted Research26, University of Hohenheim27, Wageningen University and Research Centre28, Chinese Academy of Sciences29, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation30, China Agricultural University31, Nanjing Agricultural University32
TL;DR: The authors systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating.
Abstract: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
1,461 citations
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory1, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory2, City University of Hong Kong3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology4, Seoul National University5, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration6, India Meteorological Department7, University of Tokyo8, University of Melbourne9, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology10
TL;DR: In this article, model projections of tropical cyclone activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed and observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate that tropical cyclones respond well to global warming.
Abstract: Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate ...
536 citations
TL;DR: The main pathways by which climate change may affect the authors' food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution are reviewed.
Abstract: Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.
522 citations
TL;DR: In this article, climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall, with a particularly pronounced decline in southern Africa and an increase in East Africa.
Abstract: The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall—with a particularly pronounced decline in southern Africa and an increase in East Africa. The region could also experience as much as one meter of sea-level rise by the end of this century under a 4 °C warming scenario. Sub-Saharan Africa’s already high rates of undernutrition and infectious disease can be expected to increase compared to a scenario without climate change. Particularly vulnerable to these climatic changes are the rainfed agricultural systems on which the livelihoods of a large proportion of the region’s population currently depend. As agricultural livelihoods become more precarious, the rate of rural–urban migration may be expected to grow, adding to the already significant urbanization trend in the region. The movement of people into informal settlements may expose them to a variety of risks different but no less serious than those faced in their place of origin, including outbreaks of infectious disease, flash flooding and food price increases. Impacts across sectors are likely to amplify the overall effect but remain little understood.
509 citations
Cites background from "Long-term Climate Change: Projectio..."
...Projected precipitation changes based upon the full set of CMIP5 models show the same general patterns, but the magnitude of change (in terms of percentages) is smaller (Collins et al. 2013)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future, and present and future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region.
Abstract: This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.
486 citations
Cites result from "Long-term Climate Change: Projectio..."
...Corroborating the results presented in this study, Collins et al. (2013) show that agreement among CMIP5 models and the consistency with other physical features of climate change indicate high confidence for Northeast Brazil such as surface soils are projected to dry; annual evapotranspiration and…...
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...5, consistent with Collins et al. (2013) and Sillmann et al. (2013)....
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