Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database
Citations
437 citations
Cites background from "Madden-Julian Oscillation predictio..."
...The MJO is generally thought to play a role in ENSO initiation (McPhaden et al., 2006), monsoon active break cycles (Annamalai & Slingo, 2001), tropical cyclogenesis (Sobel & Maloney, 2000), and remote teleconnection effects (Vitart, 2017); therefore, its accurate simulation is key....
[...]
204 citations
193 citations
Additional excerpts
...Vitart (2017) extended the evaluation of MJO-NAO analysis to the 10 S2S models (Vitart et al., 2017) and showed that in the forecasts the MJO teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector are weaker than in observations....
[...]
185 citations
158 citations
Cites methods from "Madden-Julian Oscillation predictio..."
...This range of prediction skill411 is similar to the MJO skill of the WWRP/WCRP S2S models, with the exception of the ECMWF412 model which far exceeds the skill of any other S2S or SubX model (Vitart 2017)....
[...]
...The observed NAO index is calculated using 500 hPa240 geopotential height from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996).241 b. Multi-model Ensemble242 Since the SubX models are initialized on different days, it is challenging to produce a MME243 (e.g. Vitart (2017))....
[...]
References
22,055 citations
3,043 citations
"Madden-Julian Oscillation predictio..." refers methods in this paper
...In order to assess the sensitivity of the MJO bivariate correlation calculation to the choice of the verifying analysis, the MJO indices and the MJO verification have been recomputed for three S2S models (ECMWF, BoM and NCEP) using different reanalysis datasets: 20CRv2C (Compo et al., 2011) and JRA55 (Ebita et al....
[...]
...…of the MJO bivariate correlation calculation to the choice of the verifying analysis, the MJO indices and the MJO verification have been recomputed for three S2S models (ECMWF, BoM and NCEP) using different reanalysis datasets: 20CRv2C (Compo et al., 2011) and JRA55 (Ebita et al., 2011)....
[...]
2,491 citations
643 citations
"Madden-Julian Oscillation predictio..." refers background or methods or result in this paper
...Cassou (2008) and Lin et al. (2009) showed that the probability of a positive phase of the NAO is significantly increased about 10 days after the MJO is in Phase 3 (Phase 3 + 10 days), and significantly decreased about 10 days after the MJO is in Phase 7 (Phase 7 + 10 days). The probability of a negative phase of the NAO is decreased (increased) about 10 days after the MJO is in Phase 3 (Phase 7). The impact of the MJO on two other Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, the Atlantic Ridge and Scandinavian blocking, is much weaker. Vitart and Molteni (2010) showed that a set of ECMWF reforecasts using cycle 32R3 displayed realistic MJO teleconnections over the Northern Extratropics, consistent with the observed impacts (Cassou, 2008; Lin et al., 2009), although the impact of the MJO on the NAO was underestimated in the ECMWF model. Lin et al. (2010) further found that the MJO has a significant impact on the intraseasonal NAO skill scores using the ECCC model....
[...]
...Cassou (2008) and Lin et al. (2009) showed that the probability of a positive phase of the NAO is significantly increased about 10 days after the MJO is in Phase 3 (Phase 3 + 10 days), and significantly decreased about 10 days after the MJO is in Phase 7 (Phase 7 + 10 days)....
[...]
...Vitart and Molteni (2010) showed that a set of ECMWF reforecasts using cycle 32R3 displayed realistic MJO teleconnections over the Northern Extratropics, consistent with the impact Cassou (2008) and Lin et al. (2009) found, but with a lower amplitude in the Euro-Atlantic sector than in ERA-Interim (Dee et al....
[...]
...…(2010) showed that a set of ECMWF reforecasts using cycle 32R3 displayed realistic MJO teleconnections over the Northern Extratropics, consistent with the impact Cassou (2008) and Lin et al. (2009) found, but with a lower amplitude in the Euro-Atlantic sector than in ERA-Interim (Dee et al., 2011)....
[...]
...Vitart and Molteni (2010) showed that a set of ECMWF reforecasts using cycle 32R3 displayed realistic MJO teleconnections over the Northern Extratropics, consistent with the impact Cassou (2008) and Lin et al....
[...]
626 citations