scispace - formally typeset
Search or ask a question
Journal ArticleDOI

Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: A case study of Italy

TL;DR: In this paper, a mathematical epidemiological model of COVID-19 to investigate the dynamics of this pandemic disease and fitted this model to the current COVID -19 cases in Italy.
About: This article is published in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation.The article was published on 2022-04-01 and is currently open access. It has received 16 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Basic reproduction number & Social distance.
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper proposed an SEQAIHR model with saturated treatment for controlling COVID-19 spreading with limited medical facilities, and checked the biological feasibility of model solutions and computed the basic reproduction number ( $$R_0$$ ).
Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the major concerns was a medical emergency in human society. Therefore it was necessary to control or restrict the disease spreading among populations in any fruitful way at that time. To frame out a proper policy for controlling COVID-19 spreading with limited medical facilities, here we propose an SEQAIHR model having saturated treatment. We check biological feasibility of model solutions and compute the basic reproduction number ( $$R_0$$ ). Moreover, the model exhibits transcritical, backward bifurcation and forward bifurcation with hysteresis with respect to different parameters under some restrictions. Further to validate the model, we fit it with real COVID-19 infected data of Hong Kong from 19th December, 2021 to 3rd April, 2022 and estimate model parameters. Applying sensitivity analysis, we find out the most sensitive parameters that have an effect on $$R_0$$ . We estimate $$R_0$$ using actual initial growth data of COVID-19 and calculate effective reproduction number for same period. Finally, an optimal control problem has been proposed considering effective vaccination and saturated treatment for hospitalized class to decrease density of the infected class and to minimize implemented cost.

7 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , the effectiveness of vaccination in Covid-19 pandemic disease by modelling three compartments susceptible, vaccinated and infected (SVI) of Atangana Baleanu of Caputo (ABC) type derivatives in non-integer order is analyzed and its stability is performed.
Abstract: The pandemic caused by coronaviruses (SARS-COV-2) is a zoonotic disease targeting the respiratory tract of active humans. Few mild symptoms of fever and tiredness get cured without any medicinal aid, whereas some severe symptoms of dry cough with breathing illness led to perceived risk of secondary transmission. This paper studies the effectiveness of vaccination in Covid-19​ pandemic disease by modelling three compartments susceptible, vaccinated and infected (SVI) of Atangana Baleanu of Caputo (ABC) type derivatives in non-integer order. The disease dynamics is analysed and its stability is performed. Numerical approximation is derived using Adam’s Moulton method and simulated to forecast the results for controllability of pandemic spread.

4 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article , a mathematical model depicting the transmission dynamics of chickenpox is developed by incorporating a new parameter denoting the rate of precautionary measures, and the influence and importance of following precautionary steps are showed by applying the real data collected at Phuket province, Thailand.

4 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper , the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic in multiple susceptible populations, including the various stages of vaccination administration, were explored, and the conditions determining disease persistence were obtained.

3 citations

References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan, China, were reported.

36,578 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: During the first 2 months of the current outbreak, Covid-19 spread rapidly throughout China and caused varying degrees of illness, and patients often presented without fever, and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings.
Abstract: Background Since December 2019, when coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China, data have been needed on the clinical characteristics of...

22,622 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Abstract: Background The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the...

13,101 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, R0, is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary differential equations and it is shown that, if R0<1, then the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; whereas if R 0>1,Then it is unstable.
Abstract: A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, Ro, is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary dierential equations. It is shown that, if Ro 1, then it is unstable. Thus,Ro is a threshold parameter for the model. An analysis of the local centre manifold yields a simple criterion for the existence and stability of super- and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for Ro near one. This criterion, together with the definition of Ro, is illustrated by treatment, multigroup, staged progression, multistrain and vectorhost models and can be applied to more complex models. The results are significant for disease control.

7,106 citations