Mean reversion in corporate leverage: evidence from India
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors make use of a major "shock" to the debt ratios as an event and think of a subsequent reversion as a movement toward a mean or target debt ratio.
Abstract: Recent papers on target capital structure show that debt ratio seems to vary widely in space and time, implying that the functional specifications of target debt ratios are of little empirical use. Further, target behavior cannot be adjudged correctly using debt ratios, as they could revert due to mechanical reasons. The purpose of this paper is to develop an alternative testing strategy to test the target capital structure.,The authors make use of a major “shock” to the debt ratios as an event and think of a subsequent reversion as a movement toward a mean or target debt ratio. By doing this, the authors no longer need to identify target debt ratios as a function of firm-specific variables or any other rigid functional form.,Similar to the broad empirical evidence in developed economies, there is no perceptible and systematic mean reversion by Indian firms. However, unlike developed countries, proportionate usage of debt to finance firms’ marginal financing deficits is extensive; equity is used rather sparingly.,The trade-off theory could be convincingly refuted at least for the emerging market of India. The paper here stimulated further research on finding reasons for specific financing behavior of emerging market firms.,The results show that the firms’ financing choices are not only depending on their own firm’s specific variables but also on the financial markets in which they operate.,This study attempts to assess mean reversion in debt ratios in a unique but reassuring manner. The results are confirmed by extensive calibration of the testing strategy using simulated data sets.
Citations
More filters
229 citations
References
More filters
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of financial structure on market valuations has been investigated and a theory of investment of the firm under conditions of uncertainty has been developed for the cost-of-capital problem.
Abstract: The potential advantages of the market-value approach have long been appreciated; yet analytical results have been meager. What appears to be keeping this line of development from achieving its promise is largely the lack of an adequate theory of the effect of financial structure on market valuations, and of how these effects can be inferred from objective market data. It is with the development of such a theory and of its implications for the cost-of-capital problem that we shall be concerned in this paper. Our procedure will be to develop in Section I the basic theory itself and to give some brief account of its empirical relevance. In Section II we show how the theory can be used to answer the cost-of-capital questions and how it permits us to develop a theory of investment of the firm under conditions of uncertainty. Throughout these sections the approach is essentially a partial-equilibrium one focusing on the firm and "industry". Accordingly, the "prices" of certain income streams will be treated as constant and given from outside the model, just as in the standard Marshallian analysis of the firm and industry the prices of all inputs and of all other products are taken as given. We have chosen to focus at this level rather than on the economy as a whole because it is at firm and the industry that the interests of the various specialists concerned with the cost-of-capital problem come most closely together. Although the emphasis has thus been placed on partial-equilibrium analysis, the results obtained also provide the essential building block for a general equilibrium model which shows how those prices which are here taken as given, are themselves determined. For reasons of space, however, and because the material is of interest in its own right, the presentation of the general equilibrium model which rounds out the analysis must be deferred to a subsequent paper.
15,342 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that current capital structure is strongly related to historical market values, and that firms are more likely to issue equity when their market values are high, relative to book and past market values.
Abstract: It is well known that firms are more likely to issue equity when their market values are high, relative to book and past market values, and to repurchase equity when their market values are low. We document that the resulting effects on capital structure are very persistent. As a consequence, current capital structure is strongly related to historical market values. The results suggest the theory that capital structure is the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market. IN CORPORATE F INANCE, “equity market timing” refers to the practice of issuing shares at high prices and repurchasing at low prices. The intention is to exploit temporary f luctuations in the cost of equity relative to the cost of other forms of capital. In the efficient and integrated capital markets studied by Modigliani and Miller ~1958!, the costs of different forms of capital do not vary independently, so there is no gain from opportunistically switching between equity and debt. In capital markets that are inefficient or segmented, by contrast, market timing benefits ongoing shareholders at the expense of entering and exiting ones. Managers thus have incentives to time the market if they think it is possible and if they care more about ongoing shareholders. In practice, equity market timing appears to be an important aspect of real corporate financial policy. There is evidence for market timing in four different kinds of studies. First, analyses of actual financing decisions show that firms tend to issue equity instead of debt when market value is high, relative to book value and past market values, and tend to repurchase equity when market value is low. 1 Second, analyses of long-run stock returns fol
2,516 citations
TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that the Modigliani-Miller independence thesis in a state preference framework does not depend upon the assumption that the firm will earn its debt obligation with certainty, since bankruptcy penalties would not exist in a perfect market.
Abstract: IN COMPLETE and perfect capital markets, Hirshleifer [6, 7], Robichek and Myers [13], and Stiglitz [15] have shown that the firm's market value is independent of its capital structure. Although firms may issue conventional types of complex securities, such as common stocks and bonds, if the number of distinct complex securities equals the number of states of nature, individuals are able to create primitive securities. A primitive security represents a dollar claim contingent on the occurrence of a specific state of nature and can be created by purchasing and selling short given amounts of complex securities. Since in a perfect market the firm is a price taker, the market prices of these primitive securities are unaffected by the firm's financing mix. Therefore, given the firm's capital budgeting decisions which determine the firm's returns in each state, the firm's market value is independent of its capital structure. The market value of the firm equals the summation over states of the product of the dollar return contingent on a state and the market price of the primitive security representing a dollar claim contingent on the occurrence of that state. The proof of the Modigliani-Miller [8] independence thesis in a statepreference framework does not depend upon the assumption that the firm will earn its debt obligation with certainty. The firm may not earn the "promised" return on its bonds in some states of the world and would be bankrupt. In these states the firm's bonds are claims on the residual value of the firm. Although the firm's financing mix determines the states in which the firm is insolvent, the value of the firm is not affected since bankruptcy penalties would not exist in a perfect market. Therefore, sufficient conditions for the Modigliani-Miller independence thesis are complete and perfect capital markets. The taxation of corporate profits and the existence of bankruptcy penalties are market imperfections that are central to a positive theory of the effect of capital structure on valuation. A tax advantage to debt financing arises since interest charges are tax deductible. Assuming that the firm earns its debt obligation, financial leverage decreases the firm's corporate income tax liability and increases its after-tax operating earnings. However, a corporate bond is not merely a bundle of contingent claims but is a legal obligation to pay a fixed
2,154 citations
TL;DR: In contrast to previous empirical work, out tests explicitly account for the fact that firms may face impediments to movements toward their target ratio, and that the target ratio may change over time as the firm's profitability and stock price change as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: When firms adjust their capital structures, they tend to move toward a target debt ratio that is consistent with theories based on tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of debt. In contrast to previous empirical work, out tests explicitly account for the fact that firms may face impediments to movements toward their target ratio, and that the target ratio may change over time as the firm's profitability and stock price change. A separate analysis of the size of the issue and repurchase transactions suggests that the deviation between the actual and the target ratios plays a more important role in the repurchase decision than in the issuance decision.
1,969 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that current capital structure is strongly related to past market values and that the resulting effects on capital structure are very persistent, and suggest the theory that capital structure was the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market.
Abstract: It is well known that firms are more likely to issue equity when their market values are high, relative to book and past market values, and to repurchase equity when their market values are low. We document that the resulting effects on capital structure are very persistent. As a consequence, current capital structure is strongly related to past market values. The results suggest the theory that capital structure is the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market.
1,882 citations