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Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry
TL;DR: The authors empirically examined the ready-to-eat cereal industry and found that the prices in the industry are consistent with non-collusive pricing behavior to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products, and it is these two factors that lead to high price cost margins.
Abstract: The ready-to-eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration margins, large advertising to sales ratios, and numerous introductions of new products. Previous researchers have concluded that the ready-to-eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense non-price competition. This paper empirically examines this conclusion. In particular, I estimate price-cost margins importantly I am able empirically to separate these margins into three parts: (1) that which is due to product differentiation; (2) that which is due to multi-product firm pricing; and (3) that due to potential price collusion. The results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal, the first two effects explain most of the observed price-cost markups. I conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with non-collusive pricing behavior to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products influence the perceived quality of these products, and it is these two factors that lead to high price-cost margins.
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Book•
01 Jan 2003TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation, and compare simulation-assisted estimation procedures, including maximum simulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and methods of simulated scores.
Abstract: This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum simulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 20 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
7,768Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the frequency of price change is highly seasonal: it is highest in the first quarter and then declines, and that price increases covaries strongly with inflation, whereas price decreases and the size of price increases and decreases do not.
Abstract: are price decreases. (3) The frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation, whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not. (4) The frequency of price change is highly seasonal: it is highest in the first quarter and then declines. (5) We find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products. We show that the first, second, and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu-cost model, whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not.
1,588Â citations
TL;DR: A comprehensive survey of the economic analysis of advertising can be found in this article, with a focus on positive and normative theories of monopoly advertising, price and non-price advertising, theories of advertising and product quality, and theories that explore the potential role for advertising in deterring entry.
Abstract: This chapter offers a comprehensive survey of the economic analysis of advertising. A first objective is to organize the literature in a manner that clarifies what is known. A second objective is to clarify how this knowledge has been obtained. The chapter begins with a discussion of the key initial writings that are associated with the persuasive, informative and complementary views of advertising. Next, work that characterizes empirical regularities between advertising and other variables is considered. Much of this work is conducted at the inter-industry level but important industry studies are also discussed. The chapter then offers several sections that summarize formal economic theories of advertising. In particular, respective sections are devoted to positive and normative theories of monopoly advertising, theories of price and non-price advertising, theories of advertising and product quality, and theories that explore the potential role for advertising in deterring entry. At this point, the chapter considers the empirical support for the formal economic theories of advertising. A summary is provided of empirical work that evaluates the predictions of recent theories of advertising, including work that specifies and estimates explicitly structural models of firm and consumer conduct. This work is characterized by the use of industry (or brand) and even household-level data. The chapter then considers work on endogenous and exogenous sunk cost industries. At a methodological level, this work is integrative in nature: it develops new theory that delivers a few robust predictions, and it then explores the empirical relevance of these predictions at both inter-industry and industry levels. Finally, the chapter considers new directions and other topics. Here, recent work on advertising and media markets is discussed, and research on behavioral economics and neuroeconomics is also featured. A final section offers some concluding thoughts.
924Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe a control function approach for handling endogeneity in choice models, which is an alternative to Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes's (1995) product-market controls for unobserved quality.
Abstract: Endogeneity arises for numerous reasons in models of consumer choice. It leads to inconsistency with standard estimation methods that maintain independence between the model's error and the included variables. The authors describe a control function approach for handling endogeneity in choice models. Observed variables and economic theory are used to derive controls for the dependence between the endogenous variable and the demand error. The theory points to the relationships that contain information on the unobserved demand factor, such as the pricing equation and the advertising equation. The authors' approach is an alternative to Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes's (1995) product-market controls for unobserved quality. The authors apply both methods to examine households' choices among television options, including basic and premium cable packages, in which unobserved attributes, such as quality of programming, are expected to be correlated with price. Without correcting for endogeneity, aggregate d...
910Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed whether file sharing has reduced the legal sales of music and found that downloads have an effect on sales that is statistically indistinguishable from zero, which is inconsistent with claims that file sharing is the primary reason for the decline in music sales during their study period.
Abstract: For industries ranging from software to pharmaceuticals and entertainment, there is an intense debate about the appropriate level of protection for intellectual property. The Internet provides a natural crucible to assess the implications of reduced protection because it drastically lowers the cost of copying information. In this paper, we analyze whether file sharing has reduced the legal sales of music. While this question is receiving considerable attention in academia, industry, and Congress, we are the first to study the phenomenon employing data on actual downloads of music files. We match an extensive sample of downloads to U.S. sales data for a large number of albums. To establish causality, we instrument for downloads using data on international school holidays. Downloads have an effect on sales that is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Our estimates are inconsistent with claims that file sharing is the primary reason for the decline in music sales during our study period.
855Â citations
References
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13,118Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applied these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry.
Abstract: This paper develops techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applies these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry. Our primary goal is to present a framework which enables one to obtain estimates of demand and cost parameters for a class of oligopolistic differentiated products markets. These estimates can be obtained using only widely available product-level and aggregate consumer-level data, and they are consistent with a structural model of equilibrium in an oligopolistic industry. When we apply the tech- niques developed here to the U.S. automobile market, we obtain cost and demand parameters for (essentially) all models marketed over a twenty year period.
4,803Â citations
TL;DR: In this article, the adequacy of a mixing specification can be tested simply as an omitted variable test with appropriately definedartificial variables, and a practicalestimation of aarametricmixingfamily can be run by MaximumSimulated Likelihood EstimationorMethod ofSimulatedMoments, andeasilycomputedinstruments are provided that make the latter procedure fairly eAcient.
Abstract: SUMMARY Thispaperconsidersmixed,orrandomcoeAcients,multinomiallogit (MMNL)modelsfordiscreteresponse, andestablishesthefollowingresults.Undermildregularityconditions,anydiscretechoicemodelderivedfrom random utility maximization has choice probabilities that can be approximated as closely as one pleases by a MMNLmodel.PracticalestimationofaparametricmixingfamilycanbecarriedoutbyMaximumSimulated LikelihoodEstimationorMethodofSimulatedMoments,andeasilycomputedinstrumentsareprovidedthat make the latter procedure fairly eAcient. The adequacy of a mixing specification can be tested simply as an omittedvariabletestwithappropriatelydefinedartificialvariables.Anapplicationtoaproblemofdemandfor alternativevehiclesshowsthatMMNL provides aflexible and computationally practical approach todiscrete response analysis. Copyright # 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
3,967Â citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: The problem of translating the theory of economic choice behavior into concrete models suitable for analyzing housing location and methods for controlling the size of data collection and estimation tasks by sampling alternatives from the full set of alternatives are discussed.
Abstract: The problem of translating the theory of economic choice behavior into concrete models suitable for analyzing housing location is discussed. The analysis is based on the premise that the classical, economically rational consumer will choose a residential location by weighing the attributes of each available alternative and by selecting the alternative that maximizes utility. The assumption of independence in the commonly used multinomial logit model of choice is relaxed to permit a structure of perceived similarities among alternatives. In this analysis, choice is described by a multinomial logit model for aggregates of similar alternatives. Also discussed are methods for controlling the size of data collection and estimation tasks by sampling alternatives from the full set of alternatives. /Author/
3,138Â citations