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Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
TL;DR: The authors measured the effects of the zero lower bound on interest rates of any maturity by comparing the sensitivity of those interest rates to macroeconomic news when short-term interest rates were very low to that during normal times.
Abstract: The federal funds rate has been at the zero lower bound for over four years, since December 2008. According to standard macroeconomic models, this should have greatly reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy and increased the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, these models also imply that asset prices and private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current level of the overnight rate. Thus, interest rates with a year or more to maturity are arguably more relevant for asset prices and the economy, and it is unclear to what extent those yields have been affected by the zero lower bound. In this paper, we measure the effects of the zero lower bound on interest rates of any maturity by comparing the sensitivity of those interest rates to macroeconomic news when short-term interest rates were very low to that during normal times. We find that yields on Treasury securities with a year or more to maturity were surprisingly responsive to news throughout 2008-10, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were likely to have been about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 does the sensitivity of these yields to news fall closer to zero. We offer two explanations for our findings: First, until late 2011, market participants expected the funds rate to lift off from zero within about four quarters, minimizing the effects of the zero bound on medium- and longer-term yields. Second, the Fed's unconventional policy actions seem to have helped offset the effects of the zero bound on medium- and longer-term rates.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables, and show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis.
Abstract: We provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables. We first show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that the resulting "modest" movements in short rates lead to "large" movements in credit costs, which are due mainly to the reaction of both term premia and credit spreads. Finally, we show that forward guidance is important to the overall strength of policy transmission. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52, G01)
1,044 citations
TL;DR: This paper employed an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates, which can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy.
Abstract: This paper employs an approximation that makes a nonlinear term structure model extremely tractable for analysis of an economy operating near the zero lower bound for interest rates. We show that such a model offers an excellent description of the data compared to the benchmark model and can be used to summarize the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy. Our estimates imply that the efforts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy since July 2009 succeeded in making the unemployment rate in December 2013 1% lower, which is 0.13% more compared to the historical behavior of the Fed.
847 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity were studied, and it was shown that fiscal volatility shocks have an adverse effect on economic activity that is comparable to the effect of a 25-basis-point innovation in the federal funds rate.
Abstract: We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow for time-varying volatility. We then feed these processes into an otherwise standard New Keynesian business cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that fiscal volatility shocks have an adverse effect on economic activity that is comparable to the effects of a 25-basis-point innovation in the federal funds rate.
653 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a new empirical measure of uncertainty based on the Michigan survey and a VAR model is proposed, which is consistent with US data, and combining search frictions and nominal rigidities can match the qualitative VAR pattern and account for about 70 percent of the empirical increase in unemployment following an uncertainty shock.
630 citations
01 Jan 2012
TL;DR: The authors empirically characterize the responses of asset prices and private macroeconomic forecasts to FOMC forward guidance, both before and since the recent financial crisis, and investigate how pairing such guidance with bright-line rules for launching rate increases can mitigate risks to the Federal Reserve's price stability mandate.
Abstract: A large output gap accompanied by stable inflation close to its target calls for further monetary accommodation, but the zero lower bound on interest rates has robbed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the usual tool for its provision. We examine how public statements of FOMC intentions—forward guidance—can substitute for lower rates at the zero bound. We distinguish between Odyssean forward guidance, which publicly commits the FOMC to a future action, and Delphic forward guidance, which merely forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions. Others have shown how forward guidance that commits the central bank to keeping rates at zero for longer than conditions would otherwise warrant can provide monetary easing, if the public trusts it. We empirically characterize the responses of asset prices and private macroeconomic forecasts to FOMC forward guidance, both before and since the recent financial crisis. Our results show that the FOMC has extensive experience successfully telegraphing its intended adjustments to evolving conditions, so communication difficulties do not present an insurmountable barrier to Odyssean forward guidance. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we investigate how pairing such guidance with bright-line rules for launching rate increases can mitigate risks to the Federal Reserve’s price stability mandate.
536 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine how recent econometric policy evaluation research on monetary policy rules can be applied in a practical policymaking environment, and the discussion centers around a hypothetical but representative policy rule much like that advocated in recent research.
8,414 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, it was shown that discretionary policy does not result in the social objective function being maximized, and that there is no way control theory can be made applicable to economic planning when expectations are rational.
Abstract: Even if there is an agreed-upon, fixed social objective function and policymakers know the timing and magnitude of the effects of their actions, discretionary policy, namely, the selection of that decision which is best, given the current situation and a correct evaluation of the end-of-period position, does not result in the social objective function being maximized. The reason for this apparent paradox is that economic planning is not a game against nature but, rather, a game against rational economic agents. We conclude that there is no way control theory can be made applicable to economic planning when expectations are rational.
7,652 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1997TL;DR: In this paper, Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay present an attempt by three well-known and well-respected scholars to fill an acknowledged void in the empirical finance literature, a text covering the burgeoning field of empirical finance.
Abstract: This book is an ambitious effort by three well-known and
well-respected scholars to fill an acknowledged void in the
literature—a text covering the burgeoning field of empirical finance.
As the authors note in the preface, there are several excellent books
covering financial theory at a level suitable for a Ph.D. class or as
a reference for academics and practitioners, but there is little or
nothing similar that covers econometric methods and applications.
Perhaps the closest existing text is the recent addition to the Wiley
Series in Financial and Quantitative Analysis. written by Cuthbertson
(1996). The major difference between the books is that Cuthbertson
focuses exclusively on asset pricing in the stock, bond, and foreign
exchange markets, whereas Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay (henceforth CLM)
consider empirical applications throughout the field of finance,
including corporate finance, derivatives markets, and market
microstructure. The level of anticipation preceding publication
can be partly measured by the fact that at least three reviews
(including this one) have appeared since the book arrived. Moreover,
in their reviews, both Harvey (1998) and Tiso (1998) comment on the
need for such a text, a sentiment that has been echoed by numerous
finance academics.
7,169 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the recent literature on monetary policy rules is presented, and the authors exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework and consider the implications of adding various real word complications.
Abstract: This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. To organize the discussion, we exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real word complications. We concentrate on developing results that are robust across a reasonable variety of competing macroeconomic frameworks. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making credible commitments to fight inflation and consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information and model uncertainty. Finally, we assess how proposed simple rules, such as the Taylor rule, square with the principles for optimal policy that we describe. We use this same metric to evaluate the recent course of U.S. monetary policy.
4,540 citations
TL;DR: For example, this paper found that expected returns on common stocks and long-term bonds contain a term or maturity premium that has a clear business-cycle pattern (low near peaks, high near troughs).
4,110 citations