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Military utility : A proposed concept to support decision-making

01 Nov 2015-Technology in Society (Pergamon)-Vol. 43, Iss: 43, pp 23-32

TL;DR: In this article, a concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations, which is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering.

AbstractA concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military effectiveness, of the assessed technical system's suitability to the military capability system and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.

Summary (5 min read)

1 Introduction

  • New requirements and challenges are born from strained military budgets and a rapidly changing world, as well as from the fact that the time when the military industry was in the forefront of technological development has passed in most areas.
  • Hence, decisions today may influence warfighting capacity for decades.
  • Furthermore it has to be done taking requirements from interdependent capabilities and foreseen doctrinal, tactical and organizational development into account – optimizing the whole capability system.
  • The starting point is a presentation of the postulates of Military Technology and the theory of concept analysis.

2 Military-Technology

  • The technology the military profession chooses, and how it uses that technology, will affect the outcome on the battlefield and the sustainment of capabilities over time.
  • The authors viewpoint originates from postulates in militarytechnology [3]: the character of war change in pace with the development of technology, technology has influence on all military command levels, and a lack of understanding of technology causes diminishing military opportunities.
  • The terminology used originates from these and the aim is to propose a concept in harmony with the use of related concepts within these disciplines.
  • Coming from a Systems Engineering tradition viewing problem phenomena as Systems is fundamental.
  • These elements include products (hardware, software, firmware), processes, people, information, techniques, facilities, services, and other support elements”[5].

3 Concepts development and Concept Analysis

  • The above identified need for a concept is based on the view of them fulfilling several important functions within the scientific community.
  • A conclusion is that how a concept is designed constitutes not only the building blocks of theories, but also affects how the phenomena are measured and examined.
  • Goertz concludes that “the basic and secondary levels are really the theory of the concept, while the indicator level is the connection to measures and data collection”[8, pp. 5–10].
  • Several guidelines exist on how to conduct Concept Analysis [14].
  • Goertz’s guidelines have similarities to Sartori´s ten rules for concepts analysis as well as to part of Walker’s and Avant’s method[10].

4 The Concept Of Military Utility

  • The concept analysis resulted in a proposed concept labeled “Military Utility”; where the conceptual definition is captured in a Goertz-diagram, see figure1.
  • Desired outcomes constitute the purpose of the mission.
  • Schedule, cost and risk objectives are boundary conditions.
  • Military Suitability in turn is operationalized using measures of the degree to which the EoI fits together with other elements of the resulting capability.
  • In the model above, indicators corresponding to TEPIDOIL (Training, Equipment, Personnel, Infrastructure, Concepts and Doctrine, Organization, Information and Logistics) illustrate possible elements on this level.

5 Dimensions and Indicators

  • The Military Utility concept should support a stakeholder’s decision-making concerning the use of technology in military activities.
  • I.e. the dimensions and indicators, is presented capturing the most important argumentation from the concept development seminars.
  • The starting point is, however, the top most level and a discussion on the input to an assessment, the situational variables.

5.1 Military Utility - Basic level

  • ´Utility´ was considered a plausible best fit to the proposed concept, since it is used throughout the three domains covered by military-technology with a general sense of supporting decisions.
  • According to the Oxford Dictionary, Utility means “the state of being useful, profitable, or beneficial”[15].
  • This definition indicates that the multipurpose aspect is essential.
  • This does not always have to be true in their intended application, at least not when the artifact or technical system is analyzed within a given environment.
  • SE concepts like ‘Operational Effectiveness’ [17] or ‘Cost Effectiveness’ [18] were discarded because they are considered special cases of Military Utility.

5.1.1 What is the Element of Interest?

  • The technical specification is one factor as well as the military context.
  • To obtain military utility during a battle the artillery gun needs a functional logistic system as well as a functional communication system between the target acquisition system and the fire unit (e.g. an artillery observation team).
  • The artillery gun does not exist in a vacuum and therefore its utility cannot be assessed as a single unit.
  • Another consequence of the system approach is that the component of military technological interest is not always the technical element itself but an element interacting with the technical element, e.g. the doctrine or the organization.
  • A challenge is that the same technology could appear in multiple technical systems.

5.1.2 Who is the military actor using the EoI?

  • The prefix “Military” is used to signal the use of the concept to support military decisionmakers – having military capabilities, goals and objectives.
  • At higher command levels the Military Utility at lower command levels † will have to be included, though, making this a more complex assessment.
  • When used by, for example, procurement agencies or the industry, the concept should be understood as being their assessment of the utility from a specific military actor’s point of view.

5.1.4 Concept level measurement considerations

  • Bernoulli assumed already in the 18 th century through the St Petersburg paradox that maximizing an individual’s income is not the same as maximizing the utility (Bernoulli 1738).
  • The utility one person can have of a specified amount of money is consequently not the same as that of the next person.
  • The military utility of artillery is related to the combined armed forces.
  • System A has arguably greater Military Utility than system B in this context and hence a continuous scale can be applied to the concept.
  • Examining the scale further the authors find that an alternative EoI that yields no better probability of achieving the organizational goals than status quo, nor at a lower cost, should be considered ‘useless’.

5.2.1 Military Effectiveness Dimension

  • The first dimension of a utility concept has to account for the purpose of using the assessed EoI at all, i.e. the military mission.
  • Hence, it is only meaningful to discuss military utility if the capability, to which the EoI contributes, has any potential of being effective in a given context.
  • Wasson explains this concept as the requirement of a system to be able to support missions “to a level of performance that makes it operationally effective in terms of accomplishing organizational goals and objectives, namely outcomes, cost, schedule, and risk.”[18].
  • The prefix is however changed to ‘Military´.
  • In summary the Military Effectiveness dimension is a measure of the overall ability to accomplish a mission when the EoI is used by representative personnel in the environment planned or expected for operational employment of the military force.

5.2.2 Military Suitability Dimension

  • The second dimension of Military Utility produces the means to analyze the relation between the EoI and the other elements of the capability system.
  • An EoI with low suitability to the other components in the Armed Forces capability system would arguably be of little use, e.g. there is no trained personnel to use the system, the Command and Control system is not compatible, there is no doctrine for how to utilize possible benefits, there are no facilities to maintain the EoI etc.
  • It should very well be possible to add suitability from national or international law to the list.
  • Instead the following definition is chosen: Military Suitability is the degree to which an EoI can be satisfactorily placed in military use in a specified context with consideration to interaction with other elements of the capability system.

5.2.3 Affordability Dimension

  • The third dimension of the Military Utility concept accounts for the consequences of having limited funding.
  • A determination that the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of an acquisition program is in consonance with the long-range investment and force structure plans of the DoD or individual DoD components.
  • ‘Affordability’ is hence more suitable than ‘Cost’ to represent the limited resources dimension of the concept, since it has a positive direction, like effectiveness and suitability.
  • As an illustration, assume that a military actor tries to find the solution with maximum military utility.
  • In use cases where the Military Utility of an EoI is assessed supporting a specific military operation the affordability dimension is omitted.

5.3 Operationalization – Indicator level

  • The operationalization of the dimensions of military utility is the bridge between the conceptual-theoretical and the empirical-observational level.
  • During concept development the ambition was to find generic clusters of indicators, rather than indicators themselves.
  • The indicators finally chosen for an assessment will be dependent on use case and context.

5.3.1 Indicators to Military Effectiveness

  • Leaning on existing definitions the effectiveness of a capability relates to the ability to reach desired effects stated in objectives for “outcomes, cost, schedule, and risk”[18].
  • This can be exemplified using the aircraft decision situation again.
  • This seems rational since this aircraft type is effective in all types of combat air operations needed to defend Swedish territory: counter air, air strike or reconnaissance – probably weighted in that order.
  • All other limiting resources for using the capability have to be accounted for in the effectiveness dimension, and they have to be defined as cost objectives.
  • In the scope of this paper it is sufficient to state that there are typically four types of substitutable indicators contributing to Military Effectiveness: Compliance to desired outcomes, Compliance to Cost, Compliance to Schedule and Compliance to Risk.

5.3.2 Indicators to Military Suitability

  • According to Wasson Measures of Suitability (MoS) are “Objective performance measures derived from subjective user criteria for assessing a system’s operational suitability to the organizational and mission applications”[18].
  • Doctrin, Organisation, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel and Facilities, also known as USA uses DOTMLPF.
  • Evidently, there are different ways of how to view capabilities and hence the concept should not dictate which architecture to use and thereby what indicators of military suitability to include.
  • If, for example, the British army had made a correct analysis of the Military Utility of the battle tank before they used it for the first time in World War I perhaps the outcome would have been another [30].
  • The compound measure is in turn a function of indicators quantifying the EoI fit with other elements of the capability.

5.3.3 Indicators of Affordability

  • “Life cycle cost (LCC) represents all the costs that will be borne during the life of a System (Main System and Support System) to acquire, operate, support it and eventually dispose of it.
  • There are other measures of ownership cost than LCC.
  • In conclusion, measures for ownership cost are very well examined and if having a budget of reference and an estimated ownership cost it should be rather straightforward to obtain a measure for Affordability.
  • The Affordability must, ultimately, be weighed together with the Military Effectiveness and Military Suitability in order to form a balanced measure of Military Utility.

5.3.4 Measurement considerations

  • Though the concept allows a scalar assessment this is not necessarily the best way to present an assessment of military utility.
  • The compounding process would assumedly involve assigning weighting factors to dimensions on the secondary level and then summing globally to get the result.
  • Or the elements of the matrix need not even be numbers.
  • Expressing assessments in scalars has advantages, e.g. when doing multiple simulations or doing some sensitivity analysis of the results.
  • But an analyst has to keep in mind that humans are never unbiased, why the quality of the decision does not necessarily improve with a seemingly neutral scalar assessment.

5.3.5 The new Swedish Armored Wheeled Vehicle (AWV) decision situation

  • In the end there were two remaining concepts competing for the contract, the Patria and the Nexter concepts.
  • One could say that the evaluation model in the example is one operationalization of the Military Utility concept fitted for administration of an acquisition program.
  • That decision-model, for the example above, was however not available for scrutiny.

6 Conclusions

  • This phenomenon, dealing with the technology the military profession chooses, and how it uses that technology, affects the outcome on the battlefield and the sustainment of capabilities over time.
  • The concept is needed to aid effective communication within the defense community and to support decision-making.
  • Military Utility is a function of three situational variables: the Element of Interest, the Military Actor and the Context.
  • The Military Effectiveness dimension is a measure of the overall ability to accomplish a mission when the EoI is used by representative personnel in the environment planned or expected for operational employment of the military force.
  • Hence the concept, accompanied by appropriate frameworks and methods, can support military decision-making regarding technology in these areas.

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This is the accepted version of a paper published in Technology in society. This paper has been peer-
reviewed but does not include the final publisher proof-corrections or journal pagination.
Citation for the original published paper (version of record):
Andersson, K., Bang, M., Marcus, C., Persson, B., Sturesson, P. et al. (2015)
Military utility: A proposed concept to support decision-making.
Technology in society, 43(November 2015): 23-32
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2015.07.001
Access to the published version may require subscription.
N.B. When citing this work, cite the original published paper.
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
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1
Military Utility, a proposed concept to support decision-making
Kent Andersson
a
*
, Martin Bang
a
, Carina Marcus
b
, Björn Persson
a
, Peter Sturesson
a
,
Eva Jensen
a
, and Gunnar Hult
a
a
Division of Military-Technology, Swedish National Defence University,
Box 27805, 115 93 Stockholm, Sweden
*
Corresponding author, e-mail: kent.andersson@fhs.se , Phone: +46 766 357628, Fax: +46 8 553 425 98
b
Saab Aerosystems, 581 88 Linköping, Sweden, e-mail: carina.marcus@saabgroup.com, Phone: +46 13 185938
Abstract A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology
in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key
features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical
system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military
effectiveness, of the assessed technical system’s suitability to the military capability system
and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on
related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is
argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-
making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the
lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development
of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.
Keywords Military, decision-making, concept analysis, operational research, Systems
Engineering
1 Introduction
For Clausewitz, in his masterly analysis of the mental and physical spheres of
war, neglected the material--man’s tools. If he thereby ensured to his work an
enduring permanence, he also, if unwittingly, ensured permanent injury to
subsequent generations who allowed themselves to forget that the spirit cannot
win battles when the body has been killed through failure to provide it with up-
to-date weapons.
[1, p. 158]
New requirements and challenges are born from strained military budgets and a rapidly
changing world, as well as from the fact that the time when the military industry was in the
forefront of technological development has passed in most areas. In Sweden, and probably in
most other democratic states, the question of how limited resources should be put to best use

2
is more relevant than ever before. In general, a military system is complex and already its
early life cycle stages, from R&D to initial operation, span over several years and often a
decade. After that a typical platform on land, at sea or in the air has an operational lifetime of
perhaps thirty years or more. Hence, decisions today may influence warfighting capacity for
decades.
Our first case of a decision situation is the technology forecast. Even before the technical
system is born as a concept, armed forces have to make decisions about what technologies to
invest their limited R&D budget in. This means there is a need to forecast and predict the
utility of technologies as part of a potential technical system in some far away uncertain
future.
The second case is defense planning. In short to midterm defense planning, i.e. the next ten-
year period, decision makers are faced with the question of when and with what technical
systems to replace those currently in operation, while keeping within budget restraints.
Furthermore it has to be done taking requirements from interdependent capabilities and
foreseen doctrinal, tactical and organizational development into account optimizing the
whole capability system.
The third case is development. Once in the concept, development and production life cycle
stages of a technical system, the question of how to build a technical system of maximum
utility to the customer, the armed forces, within a limited time frame and budget, is addressed
using requirement management within the systems engineering process.
The fourth case is use. In the utilization and support stage of a materiel system, military
commanders and their staffs plan the best use of their limited resources in order to maximize
the probability of mission success. Concretely, during planning, a staff is typically required to
assess what capability systems, i.e. units and technology, the opponent is likely to use based
on their strengths and vulnerabilities. Assessing own strengths and weaknesses in the situation
the staff is likewise asked to recommend the best use of own available capabilities, not least
based on expected technical performance.
The fifth case regards lessons learned. This is the long-term review of systems and
capabilities throughout all stages from technology forecast, development, defense planning
and use. The lessons learned process must be executed in close collaboration with the system
stakeholder in order to be accurate in validation of system performance and capability but also
to be accurate in the time domain helping decision makers get near-real time information
regarding the utility development of the system-in-focus.
In light of the above illustrated incentives for competence in decision making, Military-
technology is developing as an academic subject at the Swedish National Defence University,
SEDU, defined as:
“Military- Technology is the science which describes and explains how technology influences military
activity at all levels and how the profession of an officer affects and is affected by technology” [2]

3
It seems, though, that in every project similar analytic constructs have to be defined over and
over with moderate adjustments to application. And evidently there are similarities between
central questions in all the presented use cases from decision situations above. But, is it then
possible to form a common theory, to support decision-making regarding use of technology in
military affairs, from R&D investments to military operational planning? A more complete
Military Technology conceptual apparatus would make it easier to relate to theories across
academia, e.g. to economics or management sciences. It would certainly aid effective
communication across disciplines within the defense community, i.e. between actors within
military research agencies, the armed forces, procurement agencies and industry.
With this paper we intend to propose a concept with potential for both qualitative and
quantitative analysis to support decision-making in military technology. The concept is named
Military Utility. The starting point is a presentation of the postulates of Military Technology
and the theory of concept analysis. After that an applied method for concept analysis is
presented followed by a description of the resulting concept. The center of gravity is the
following discussion on the concept dimensions and indicators. The paper ends with an
example, final conclusions and proposed future work.
2 Military-Technology
The technology the military profession chooses, and how it uses that technology, will affect
the outcome on the battlefield and the sustainment of capabilities over time. This phenomenon
is at the centre of interest here. Our viewpoint originates from postulates in military-
technology [3]: the character of war change in pace with the development of technology,
technology has influence on all military command levels, and a lack of understanding of
technology causes diminishing military opportunities. Consequently, for an analyst in
military-technology it is essential to understand what is important to the military decision-
maker - i.e. what constitutes military utility?
In an article on the military-technological perspective on Geographical Information Systems,
Åke Sivertun finds that maximizing military utility, (translated from Swedish “Militär nytta”)
of the technology, is the core question. He stipulates a definition of the concept - how to in an
effective way and at a minimum cost, in human life as well as materiel, reach the military
mission objectives [4]. This definition is here regarded as a first iteration of the concept.
Military-technology is cross-disciplinary covering engineering as well as both natural and
social sciences. The terminology used originates from these and the aim is to propose a
concept in harmony with the use of related concepts within these disciplines. Coming from a
Systems Engineering tradition viewing problem phenomena as Systems is fundamental. A
System should be understood as “an integrated set of elements, subsystems, or assemblies that
accomplish a defined objective. These elements include products (hardware, software,
firmware), processes, people, information, techniques, facilities, services, and other support
elements”[5]. In the military domain, Capability is a key concept. Our understanding of
capability is that it is being able to do something and being able to do it well [3]. With
Military capability an actor can solve military tasks and thereby achieve desired effects.

4
Using a systemic approach military capability can be viewed as a system composed of
interacting elements, as thoroughly discussed by Jukka Anteroinen [6]. We can choose to sort
these elements into categories of Personnel, Organization, Methods and Technology (POMT)
or into Doctrine, Organization, Training, Personnel, Materiel, Facilities, Leadership and
Interoperability (DOTPMLFI), as in NATO publications. Regardless of categorization we
realize that any component in a system, e.g. the technology element, has dependencies to
other elements. Hence, a component has military utility only if it is viewed as a contributing
element in a Capability system.
The prefix Technical system is used to label the technical element in an operational military
capability system when it is beneficial to view the element in itself as a system. In this paper
the object for the assessment is an element in the capability system and it is labeled the
Element of Interest (EoI), following the Systems Engineering tradition.
3 Concepts development and Concept Analysis
The above identified need for a concept is based on the view of them fulfilling several
important functions within the scientific community. Frankfort-Nachmias and Nachmias
states that a concept: provides a common language; provides a perspective to understand the
phenomena; allows classification and categorization of different phenomena and; finally, it is
the fundamental building block of theories[7, p.2 8]. Goertz submits that concepts are
essential theories about ontology [8, p. 5]. Govanni Sartori even claims thatconcepts are not
only elements of a theoretical system but equally tools for fact-gathering, data containers[9].
A conclusion is that how a concept is designed constitutes not only the building blocks of
theories, but also affects how the phenomena are measured and examined. Concept analysis is
a process where the characteristics as well as the relations to other relevant concepts are made
clear. It can be argued that in fields directly connected to a profession the need of concept
analysis increases. A comparison can be made to nursing science where concepts analysis has
a given role and where several methods have been developed [10].
There is a lack of lexical definition of the phenomena indicating that the concept is
underdeveloped. Two approaches can be used in support of concept development. One is
traditional Concept Analysis where the aim is to capture how the concept is used. The other
approach is to focus on the phenomena, developing the concept, sometimes referred to as
Concept Formation. Which approach is used is primarily dependent on the purpose of the
concept in question. The difference between developing a concept for broader usage, through
concept analysis, and providing a stipulative definition of a word is minimal according to
Goertz [8, p. 3].
There is a fundamental difference in views on concepts, and how to measure them. Goertz and
Mahoney conclude that quantitative scholars primarily use indicators and the aggregation of
the indicators that are causes or cause the concepts”[11] to construct the concept in question.
Qualitative scholars on the other hand use a semantic process identifying the attributes that
constitutes the concept. Goertz and Mahoney argue that which approach to use depends on
whether reliability or validity is central for the research in question. Since, in most cases, we



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  • ...Therefore, it is advisable to use tools for their resolution such as MCDM processes that are nowadays widely used in the military (Kewley & Embrechts, 2002; De Leeneer & Pastijn, 2002; Zanjirani & Asgarib, 2007; Kose et al., 2013; Gyarmati, 2015; Goztepe & Kahraman, 2015; Andersson et al., 2015; Boccia et al., 2017), as well as in other research disciplines (Sánchez-Lozano et al....

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  • ...Goertz advocates structuring concepts in multiple levels, or at minimum three levels, much like Sartori ́s “ladder”[9]....

    [...]

  • ...The rule states that when selecting the term that designates the concept, it needs to be related to and controlled against the “semantic field to which the terms belong”[9]....

    [...]

  • ...Govanni Sartori even claims that “concepts are not only elements of a theoretical system but equally tools for fact-gathering, data containers”[9]....

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this theory, the consideration of cases which are all of the same probability is insisted upon as discussed by the authors, and what remains to be done within the framework of this theory amounts to the enumeration of all alternatives, their breakdown into equi-probable cases and their insertion into corresponding classifications.
Abstract: EVER SINCE mathematicians first began to study the measurement of risk there has been general agreement on the following proposition: Expected values are computed by multiplying each possible gain by the number of ways in which it can occur, and then dividing the sum of these products by the total number of possible cases where, in this theory, the consideration of cases which are all of the same probability is insisted upon. If this rule be accepted, what remains to be done within the framework of this theory amounts to the enumeration of all alternatives, their breakdown into equi-probable cases and, finally, their insertion into corresponding classifications…

1,851 citations



Frequently Asked Questions (2)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "Military utility, a proposed concept to support decision-making" ?

A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense. 

Future research is needed to further validate the concept. This will be done addressing relevant decision situations and fitting frameworks of indicators and methods to specific problems and applications.