Mixed Effectiveness of REDD+ Subnational Initiatives after 10 Years of Interventions on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico
TL;DR: This article applied the before-after-controlintervention approach and quasi-experimental methods to evaluate the effectiveness of REDD+ interventions in reducing deforestation at municipal (meso) and community (micro) scales.
Abstract: Since 2010, the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) mechanism has been implemented in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, a biodiversity hotspot with persistent deforestation problems. We apply the before-after-control-intervention approach and quasi-experimental methods to evaluate the effectiveness of REDD+ interventions in reducing deforestation at municipal (meso) and community (micro) scales. Difference-in-differences regression and propensity score matching did not show an overall reduction in forest cover loss from REDD+ projects at both scales. However, Synthetic Control Method (SCM) analyses demonstrated mixed REDD+ effectiveness among intervened municipalities and communities. Funding agencies and number of REDD+ projects intervening in a municipality or community did not appear to affect REDD+ outcomes. However, cattle production and commercial agriculture land uses tended to impede REDD+ effectiveness. Cases of communities with important forestry enterprises exemplified reduced forest cover loss but not when cattle production was present. Communities and municipalities with negative REDD+ outcomes were notable along the southern region bordering Guatemala and Belize, a remote forest frontier fraught with illegal activities and socio-environmental conflicts. We hypothesize that strengthening community governance and organizational capacity results in REDD+ effectiveness. The observed successes and problems in intervened communities deserve closer examination for REDD+ future planning and development of strategies on the Yucatan Peninsula.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate alternatives to minimize the impacts of climate change and land use-cover change under socioeconomic trajectories, in one of the biologically richest regions in Guatemala and Mexico.
9 citations
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TL;DR: This article investigated the effects of one REDD+ project in the Brazilian Amazon on deforestation and people's well-being, including intra-community spillover effects (leakage), and evaluated to what extent outcomes persisted after the project ended (permanence).
Abstract: Rigorous impact evaluations of local REDD+ (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) initiatives have shown some positive outcomes for forests, while well-being impacts have been mixed. However, will REDD+ outcomes persist over time after interventions have ended? Using quasi-experimental methods, we investigated the effects of one REDD+ project in the Brazilian Amazon on deforestation and people's well-being, including intra-community spillover effects (leakage). We then evaluated to what extent outcomes persisted after the project ended (permanence). This project combined Payments for Environmental Services (PES) with sustainable livelihood alternatives to reduce smallholder deforestation. Data came from face-to-face surveys with 113 households (treatment: 52; non-participant from treatment communities: 35; control: 46) in a three-datapoint panel design (2010, 2014 and 2019). Results indicate the REDD+ project conserved an average of 7.8% to 10.3% of forest cover per household and increased the probability of improving enrollees' well-being by 27–44%. We found no evidence for significant intra-community leakage. After the project ended, forest loss rebounded and perceived well-being declined – yet, importantly, past saved forest was not cleared. Therefore, our results confirm what the theory and stylized evidence envisioned for temporal payments on activity-reducing (‘set-aside’): forest loss was successfully delayed but not permanently eradicated. • A local REDD+ project in the Brazilian Amazon promoted win-win outcomes. • Direct payments contributed to deforestation reduction and well-being improvement. • Deforestation resumed after payments ended without retrieving avoided deforestation. • Conservation gains induced from temporary payments were preserved.
5 citations
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TL;DR: Li et al. as discussed by the authors proposed a methodological framework for setting reference levels for REDD+ applications in tropical forests in Xishuangbanna, China, by coupling the Good Practice Guidance on Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and land use scenario modeling.
Abstract: The United Nations’ expanded program for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to mobilize capital from developed countries in order to reduce emissions from these sources while enhancing the removal of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by forests. To achieve this goal, an agreement between the Parties on reference levels (RLs) is critical. RLs have profound implications for the effectiveness of the program, its cost efficiency, and the distribution of REDD+ financing among countries. In this paper, we introduce a methodological framework for setting RLs for REDD+ applications in tropical forests in Xishuangbanna, China, by coupling the Good Practice Guidance on Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and land use scenario modeling. We used two methods to verify the accuracy for the reliability of land classification. Firstly the accuracy reached 84.43%, 85.35%, and 82.68% in 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively, based on high spatial resolution image by building a hybrid matrix. Then especially, the 2010 Globeland30 data was used as the standard to verify the forest land accuracy and the extraction accuracy reached 86.92% and 83.66% for area and location, respectively. Based on the historical land use maps, we identified that rubber plantations are the main contributor to forest loss in the region. Furthermore, in the business-as-usual scenario for the RLs, Xishuangbanna will lose 158,535 ha (158,535 × 104 m2) of forest area in next 20 years, resulting in approximately 0.23 million t (0.23 × 109 kg) CO2e emissions per year. Our framework can potentially increase the effectiveness of the REDD+ program in Xishuangbanna by accounting for a wider range of forest-controlled GHGs.
3 citations
01 Dec 2018
TL;DR: In this article, the authors take stock of REDD+ progress, point to critical issues, and suggest how to move forward so that REDD and other, newer climate mitigation initiatives are effective, efficient and equitable.
Abstract: This book aims to take stock of REDD+ progress, point to critical issues, and suggest how to move forward so that REDD+ and other, newer climate mitigation initiatives are effective, efficient and equitable. We aim to be constructive critics: critical, because the world cannot afford projects and policies that do not help reduce emissions; and constructive, because if the world fails to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation it is unlikely to stay below the 1.5°C (or even 2°C) target. As we point to ways forward, we also aim to stimulate reflection and discussion.In a previous book (Angelsen et al. 2012, 2–3), we proposed that REDD+ research is progressing through three generations or phases, mirroring the three phases of REDD+ itself: (i) designing REDD+ and learning from related experiences in the past; (ii) the political economy and implementation of REDD+; and (iii) assessing the impacts of REDD+. The first two edited REDD+ volumes from CIFOR were first-generation research outputs: ‘Moving Ahead with REDD: Issues, options and implications’ (Angelsen 2008) and ‘Realising REDD+: National strategy and policy options’ (Angelsen et al. 2009). The next volume, ‘Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices’ (Angelsen et al. 2012), moved into second-generation research, analysing actual REDD+ design and early implementation.The current and fourth volume includes research covering all three phases. We have data – albeit far from perfect – that enable us to make preliminary conclusions about the progress and impacts of national and subnational REDD+ initiatives. Yet, the basic design issues (e.g., of results-based payment systems) and coordination and implantation of REDD+ policies across levels and between sectors are still central to the REDD+ debate.
1 citations
References
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TL;DR: Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally, and boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms.
Abstract: Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.
7,890 citations
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TL;DR: Two studies used the difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the changes that occurred following the 2011 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) duty hour reforms.
Abstract: Observational studies are commonly used to evaluate the changes in outcomes associated with health care policy implementation. An important limitation in using observational studies in this context is the need to control for background changes in outcomes that occur with time (eg, secular trends affecting outcomes). The difference-in-differences approach is increasingly applied to address this problem.1 In this issue of JAMA, studies by Rajaram and colleagues2 and Patel and colleagues3 used the difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the changes that occurred following the 2011 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) duty hour reforms. The 2 studies were conducted with different data sources and study populations but used similar methods.
868 citations
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TL;DR: Key features of DID designs are reviewed with an emphasis on public health policy research and it is noted that combining elements from multiple quasi-experimental techniques may be important in the next wave of innovations to the DID approach.
Abstract: The difference in difference (DID) design is a quasi-experimental research design that researchers often use to study causal relationships in public health settings where randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible or unethical. However, causal inference poses many challenges in DID designs. In this article, we review key features of DID designs with an emphasis on public health policy research. Contemporary researchers should take an active approach to the design of DID studies, seeking to construct comparison groups, sensitivity analyses, and robustness checks that help validate the method's assumptions. We explain the key assumptions of the design and discuss analytic tactics, supplementary analysis, and approaches to statistical inference that are often important in applied research. The DID design is not a perfect substitute for randomized experiments, but it often represents a feasible way to learn about casual relationships. We conclude by noting that combining elements from multiple quasi-experimental techniques may be important in the next wave of innovations to the DID approach.
789 citations
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TL;DR: A decade-long difference-in-differences analysis of the impact of a vacant lot greening program in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, showed that vacantlot greening was associated with consistent reductions in gun assaults across all 4 sections of the city and with residents' reporting less stress and more exercise in select sections.
Abstract: Greening of vacant urban land may affect health and safety. The authors conducted a decade-long difference-indifferences analysis of the impact of a vacant lot greening program in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on health and safety outcomes. ‘‘Before’’ and ‘‘after’’ outcome differences among treated vacant lots were compared with matched groups of control vacant lots that were eligible but did not receive treatment. Control lots from 2 eligibility pools were randomly selected and matched to treated lots at a 3:1 ratio by city section. Random-effects regression models were fitted, along with alternative models and robustness checks. Across 4 sections of Philadelphia, 4,436 vacant lots totaling over 7.8 million square feet (about 725,000 m 2 ) were greened from 1999 to 2008. Regressionadjusted estimates showed that vacant lot greening was associated with consistent reductions in gun assaults across all 4 sections of the city (P < 0.001) and consistent reductions in vandalism in 1 section of the city (P < 0.001). Regression-adjusted estimates also showed that vacant lot greening was associated with residents’ reporting less stress and more exercise in select sections of the city (P < 0.01). Once greened, vacant lots may reduce certain crimes and promote some aspects of health. Limitations of the current study are discussed. Community-based trials are warranted to further test these findings. city planning; crime; geography; urban health; urban renewal; wounds and injuries
497 citations
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TL;DR: The authors argue that elucidating causal relationships through counterfactual thinking and experimental or quasi-experimental designs is absolutely critical in environmental policy, and that many opportunities for doing so exist.
Abstract: Impact evaluations assess the degree to which changes in outcomes can be attributed to an intervention rather than to other factors. Such attribution requires knowing what outcomes would have looked like in the absence of the intervention. This counterfactual world can be inferred only indirectly through evaluation designs that control for confounding factors. Some have argued that environmental policy is different from other social policy fields, and thus attempting to establish causality through identification of counterfactual outcomes is quixotic. This chapter argues that elucidating causal relationships through counterfactual thinking and experimental or quasi-experimental designs is absolutely critical in environmental policy, and that many opportunities for doing so exist. Without more widespread application of such approaches, little progress will be made on building the evidence base in environmental policy. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
399 citations