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Journal Article•DOI•

Modeling the impact of early case detection on dengue transmission: deterministic vs. stochastic

Akhil Kumar Srivastav1, Pankaj Kumar Tiwari2, Mini Ghosh1•
VIT University1, Kalyani Government Engineering College2
04 May 2021-Stochastic Analysis and Applications (Taylor & Francis)-Vol. 39, Iss: 3, pp 434-455
TL;DR: A compartmental model for dengue is proposed which consists of the classes of moderately infected human population, infected but undetectedhuman population, severely infected and detectedHuman population, and quarantined/hospitalized human population with two contemporary classes for humans and vectors.
Abstract: On the global platform of emerging infectious diseases, dengue fever added a serious health concern, especially in the tropical and subtropical countries with poor health services. Due to unavailab...
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Journal Article•DOI•
Modeling and optimal control of dengue disease with screening and information

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Akhil Kumar Srivastav1, Akhil Kumar Srivastav2, Anuj Kumar3, Prashant K. Srivastava4, Mini Ghosh1 •
VIT University1, Basque Center for Applied Mathematics2, Thapar University3, Indian Institute of Technology Patna4
01 Nov 2021-European Physical Journal Plus
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a mathematical model for dengue transmission which quantifies two very important aspects: the impact of information-based behavioural response, and the segregation of infected human population into two subclasses, "detected" and "undetected".
Abstract: This study presents a mathematical model for dengue transmission which quantifies two very important aspects: one, the impact of information-based behavioural response, and the other, the segregation of infected human population into two subclasses, ‘detected’ and ‘undetected’. For the proposed model, the sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the key model parameters which not only influence the basic reproduction number, but also regulate the transmission of dengue. Further, in order to find the optimal pathways for suitable control interventions that reduce the dengue prevalence and economic burden, an optimal control problem is proposed by considering information-induced behavioural change, quarantine, screening, use of repulsive measures and culling of mosquitoes as control interventions. A weighted sum of various costs incurred in applied controls and the cost due to dengue disease (productivity loss) is incorporated in the proposed cost functional. The analysis of control system using Pontryagin’s maximum principle leads the existence of the optimal control profiles. Further, an exhaustive comparative study for seven different control strategies is conducted numerically. Our findings emphasize that every individual control strategy has their own impact on reducing the cumulative count of infection as well as cost. The combined impact of all control interventions is highly effective and economically viable in controlling the prevalence of dengue. We also investigated the effect of the basic reproduction number on the designed control strategies and observed that the comprehensive use of controls keeps a strong tab on the infective even if the severity of epidemic is high.

6 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
Role of incentives on the dynamics of infectious diseases: implications from a mathematical model

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Kalyan Pal, Rajanish Kumar Rai, Pankaj Tiwari, Yun Kang
01 Jun 2023-European Physical Journal Plus
References
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Journal Article•DOI•
The global distribution and burden of dengue

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Samir Bhatt1, Peter W. Gething1, Oliver J. Brady1, Jane P. Messina1, Andrew Farlow1, Catherine L. Moyes1, John M. Drake1, John M. Drake2, John S. Brownstein3, Anne G. Hoen4, Osman Sankoh5, Osman Sankoh6, Monica F. Myers1, Dylan B. George7, Thomas Jaenisch6, G. R. William Wint1, Cameron P. Simmons1, Thomas W. Scott7, Thomas W. Scott8, Jeremy Farrar1, Jeremy Farrar9, Simon I. Hay7, Simon I. Hay1 •
University of Oxford1, University of Georgia2, Boston Children's Hospital3, Dartmouth College4, University of the Witwatersrand5, Heidelberg University6, National Institutes of Health7, University of California, Davis8, National University of Singapore9
25 Apr 2013-Nature
TL;DR: These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.
Abstract: Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

7,238 citations

"Modeling the impact of early case d..." refers background in this paper

  • ...Such a huge impact on causing estimated 390 million annual illnesses to humans, 25% of which are categorized severe [7] making Ae....

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Journal Article•DOI•
Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission

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P. van den Driessche1, James Watmough2•
University of Victoria1, University of New Brunswick2
01 Nov 2002-Bellman Prize in Mathematical Biosciences
TL;DR: A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, R0, is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary differential equations and it is shown that, if R0<1, then the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; whereas if R 0>1,Then it is unstable.
Abstract: A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, Ro, is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary dierential equations. It is shown that, if Ro 1, then it is unstable. Thus,Ro is a threshold parameter for the model. An analysis of the local centre manifold yields a simple criterion for the existence and stability of super- and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for Ro near one. This criterion, together with the definition of Ro, is illustrated by treatment, multigroup, staged progression, multistrain and vectorhost models and can be applied to more complex models. The results are significant for disease control.

7,106 citations

Journal Article•DOI•
A Methodology For Performing Global Uncertainty And Sensitivity Analysis In Systems Biology

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Simeone Marino1, Ian B. Hogue1, Christian J. Ray1, Denise E. Kirschner1•
University of Michigan1
07 Sep 2008-Journal of Theoretical Biology
TL;DR: This work develops methods for applying existing analytical tools to perform analyses on a variety of mathematical and computer models and provides a complete methodology for performing these analyses, in both deterministic and stochastic settings, and proposes novel techniques to handle problems encountered during these types of analyses.

2,014 citations

"Modeling the impact of early case d..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...PRCC results showed the negative correlations of the parameter a1 with infected human/vector population indicating the importance of early case detection of severely infected dengue patients on reducing further transmission of disease....

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  • ...We employed a global sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of uncertainty and the sensitivity of the outcomes of the numerical simulations to variations in each parameter of the model using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) [30, 31]....

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  • ...PRCC values of these parameters with the responses suggest that the parameters K, p, m, and have significant correlations with moderately infected human population ðI1mÞ, Figure 3(a)....

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  • ...We calculate PRCCs between the parameters K, b1, l, c, l1, l2, , d, g1, a, a1, m, p, b2, Kv, and lv from system (2) with moderately infected human population ðI1mÞ, severely infected and detected human population ðI1sÞ, infected but undetected human population ðI2Þ, and infected vector population ðIvÞ: Nonlinear and monotone relationships are observed for the output variables with the input parameters of the model, which is a prerequisite for computing PRCCs....

    [...]

  • ...We employed a global sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of uncertainty and the sensitivity of the outcomes of the numerical simulations to variations in each parameter of the model using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) [30, 31]....

    [...]

Journal Article•DOI•
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Models of Disease Transmission: an HIV Model, as an Example

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Sally Blower, Hadi Dowlatabadi
01 Aug 1994-International Statistical Review
TL;DR: An uncertainty and a sensitivity analysis are described and applied based upon the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) scheme, which is an extremely efficient sampling design proposed by McKay, Conover & Beckman (1979).
Abstract: Summary HIV transmission models have become very complex. The behavior of some of these models may only be explored by uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, because the structural complexity of the model are coupled with a high degree of uncertainty in estimating the values of the input parameters. Uncertainty analysis may be used to assess the variability (prediction imprecision) in the outcome variable that is due to the uncertainty in estimating the input values. A sensitivity analysis can extend an uncertainty analysis by identifying which parameters are important in contributing to the prediction imprecision (i.e., how do changes in the values of the input parameters alter the value of the outcome variable). In this paper an uncertainty and a sensitivity analysis are described and applied; both analyses are based upon the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) scheme, which is an extremely efficient sampling design proposed by McKay, Conover & Beckman (1979). The methods described in this paper have not previously been applied to deterministic models of disease transmission, although these models have many characteristics in common with the risk assessment models that the strategies were designed to investigate. The utility of the LHS uncertainty and the LHS/PRC (Latin Hypercube Sampling/Partial Rank Correlation) sensitivity analysis techniques are illustrated by analyzing a complex deterministic model of HIV transmission.

1,127 citations

"Modeling the impact of early case d..." refers methods in this paper

  • ...The indices are evaluated at the time points 1000 days and the bar diagram of the PRCC values are shown in Figure 3....

    [...]

  • ...PRCC results showed the negative correlations of the parameter a1 with infected human/vector population indicating the importance of early case detection of severely infected dengue patients on reducing further transmission of disease....

    [...]

  • ...We employed a global sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of uncertainty and the sensitivity of the outcomes of the numerical simulations to variations in each parameter of the model using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) [30, 31]....

    [...]

  • ...PRCC values of these parameters with the responses suggest that the parameters K, p, m, and have significant correlations with moderately infected human population ðI1mÞ, Figure 3(a)....

    [...]

  • ...We calculate PRCCs between the parameters K, b1, l, c, l1, l2, , d, g1, a, a1, m, p, b2, Kv, and lv from system (2) with moderately infected human population ðI1mÞ, severely infected and detected human population ðI1sÞ, infected but undetected human population ðI2Þ, and infected vector population ðIvÞ: Nonlinear and monotone relationships are observed for the output variables with the input parameters of the model, which is a prerequisite for computing PRCCs....

    [...]

Journal Article•DOI•
Discovery of fifth serotype of dengue virus (DENV-5): A new public health dilemma in dengue control.

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M.S. Mustafa, V. Rasotgi, S. Jain, V. Gupta
01 Jan 2015-Medical journal, Armed Forces India
TL;DR: Dengue fever was believed to be caused by four different serotypes but the fifth variant DENV-5 has been isolated in October 2013, which follows the sylvatic cycle unlike the other four serotypes which follow the human cycle.
Abstract: Dengue fever is a re-emerging public health problem with two-fifths of the world population being at risk of infection. Till now, dengue fever was believed to be caused by four different serotypes. The fifth variant DENV-5 has been isolated in October 2013. This serotype follows the sylvatic cycle unlike the other four serotypes which follow the human cycle. The likely cause of emergence of the new serotype could be genetic recombination, natural selection and genetic bottlenecks. There is no indication of the presence of DENV-5 in India. Recent clinical trials with the promising Chimerivax tetravalent vaccine suffered a setback. Discovery of DENV-5 and more such sylvatic strains in future may further impede the Dengue Vaccine Initiative. Integrated Vector Management holds the key to sustainable dengue control. Further epidemiological and ecological studies are needed to detect additional sylvatic dengue strains.

438 citations

"Modeling the impact of early case d..." refers background in this paper

  • ...A possibly fifth serotype DENV-5 [1] has been a subject of discussions, particularly due to a lacking set of thorough tests for it to be officially recognized as RNA-sequence homology with the other four [2, 3]....

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