Modeling the response of populations of competing species to climate change
TL;DR: The results demonstrate that climate change can profoundly affect the abundance and distribution of species through both the direct effects of temperature on survival, and also by altering important negative interactions through shifting competitive balances and essentially removing dominant competitors or predators.
Abstract: Biotic interactions will modulate species' responses to climate change. Many approaches to predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity so far have been based purely on a climate envelope approach and have not considered direct and indirect species interactions. Using a long-term observational data set (>30 years) of competing intertidal barnacle species, we built a hierarchy of age-structured two-taxa population models (Semibalanus balanoides vs. Chthamalus montagui and C. stellatus combined as one taxon) to test if the presence of a dominant competitor can mediate climatic influence on the subordinate species. Models were parameterized using data from populations on the south coast of southwest England and verified by hindcasting using independent north coast population data. Recruitment of the dominant competitor, S. balanoides, is driven by temperature. The mechanisms of competition explored included simple space preemption and temperature-driven interference competition. The results indicate that interspecific competition between juvenile barnacles is important in regulating chthamalid density but not that of the dominant competitor S. balanoides. Simulations were carried out using alternative future climate scenarios to predict barnacle population abundance over the next century. Under all emission scenarios, the cold-water S. balanoides is predicted to virtually disappear from southwest England by the 2050s, leading to the competitive release of Chthamalus throughout the entire region and thereby substantially increasing its abundance and occupied habitat (by increasing vertical range on the shore). Our results demonstrate that climate change can profoundly affect the abundance and distribution of species through both the direct effects of temperature on survival, and also by altering important negative interactions through shifting competitive balances and essentially removing dominant competitors or predators. Climate change impacts on organisms are unlikely to lead only to straightforward, easily predictable changes in population size and distribution. The complex, indirect effects of climate change need to be taken into account if we are to accurately forecast the long-term effects of global warming.
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University of Queensland1, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation2, Scottish Association for Marine Science3, Griffith University4, Hokkaido University5, National Institute for Environmental Studies6, Imperial College London7, University of California, Santa Barbara8, Edith Cowan University9, Aberystwyth University10, University of the Sunshine Coast11, University of California, Davis12
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans, and find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm water species.
Abstract: Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence of species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with much evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of marine biological impacts of climate change are of the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters) or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).
552 citations
TL;DR: A growing number of studies find human disturbances to induce behavioural responses, both directly and by altering factors that influence fitness as mentioned in this paper, such as changes in the transmission of information, the concentration of endocrine disrupters, the availability of resources, the possibility of dispersal and the abundance of interacting species.
Abstract: The initial response of individuals to human-induced environmental change is often behavioural. This can improve the performance of individuals under sudden, large-scale perturbations and maintain viable populations. The response can also give additional time for genetic changes to arise and, hence, facilitate adaptation to new conditions. On the other hand, maladaptive responses, which reduce individual fitness, may occur when individuals encounter conditions that the population has not experienced during its evolutionary history, which can decrease population viability. A growing number of studies find human disturbances to induce behavioural responses, both directly and by altering factors that influence fitness. Common causes of behavioural responses are changes in the transmission of information, the concentration of endocrine disrupters, the availability of resources, the possibility of dispersal, and the abundance of interacting species. Frequent responses are alterations in habitat choice, movements, foraging, social behaviour and reproductive behaviour. Behavioural responses depend on the genetically determined reaction norm of the individuals, which evolves over generations. Populations first respond with individual behavioural plasticity, whereafter changes may arise through innovations and the social transmission of behavioural patterns within and across generations, and, finally, by evolution of the behavioural response over generations. Only a restricted number of species show behavioural adaptations that make them thrive in severely disturbed environments. Hence, rapid human-induced disturbances often decrease the diversity of native species, while facilitating the spread of invasive species with highly plastic behaviours. Consequently, behavioural responses to human-induced environmental change can have profound effects on the distribution, adaptation, speciation and extinction of populations and, hence, on biodiversity. A better understanding of the mechanisms of behavioural responses and their causes and consequences could improve our ability to predict the effects of human-induced environmental change on individual species and on biodiversity.
499 citations
Cites background from "Modeling the response of population..."
...These few species will then encounter lowered resource competition and benefit from the rapid change, resulting in a species-poor community with a few successful species (Poloczanska et al., 2008)....
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TL;DR: Present-day climate change is described, setting it in context with historical change, consequences of climate change for marine biological processes now and in to the future are considered, and contributions that marine systems could play in mitigating the impacts of global climate change are discussed.
492 citations
TL;DR: Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but the findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.
Abstract: Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.
483 citations
Cites background from "Modeling the response of population..."
...Strong competitive interactions such as these set the stage for cascading effects of climate change, whereby climate-driven population changes to one species drive population changes in other species (7, 19)....
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TL;DR: The results suggest that anthropogenic climate change can alter interspecific interactions and produce unexpected changes in species distributions, community structure, and diversity.
Abstract: Climate change can affect organisms both directly via physiological stress and indirectly via changing relationships among species. However, we do not fully understand how changing interspecific relationships contribute to community- and ecosystem-level responses to environmental forcing. I used experiments and spatial and temporal comparisons to demonstrate that warming substantially reduces predator-free space on rocky shores. The vertical extent of mussel beds decreased by 51% in 52 years, and reproductive populations of mussels disappeared at several sites. Prey species were able to occupy a hot, extralimital site if predation pressure was experimentally reduced, and local species richness more than doubled as a result. These results suggest that anthropogenic climate change can alter interspecific interactions and produce unexpected changes in species distributions, community structure, and diversity.
469 citations
References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
TL;DR: A review of the ecological impacts of recent climate change exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments.
Abstract: There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.
9,369 citations
"Modeling the response of population..." refers background in this paper
...Evidence is accumulating that climate change is already affecting the distributions, abundance and phenology of many plants and animals (Walther et al. 2002, Parmesan 2007)....
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Book•
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a historical overview of climate change science, including changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing, as well as changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers -- Technical summary -- Historical overview of climate change science -- Changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing -- Observations: atmospheric surface and climate change -- Observations: changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground -- Observations: ocean climate change and sea level -- Paleoclimate -- Coupling between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry -- Climate models and their evaluation -- Understanding and attributing climate change -- Global climate projections -- Regional climate projections -- Annex I: Glossary -- Annex II: Contributors to the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex III: Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex IV: Acronyms.
7,738 citations
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
7,089 citations
"Modeling the response of population..." refers background in this paper
...There has been a tendency for investigators to apply the climate envelope model (CEM) to study potential climate effects on species’ distributions and biodiversity (e.g., Bakkenes et al. 2002, Erasmus et al. 2002) and even to predict extinction risk from climate change (Thomas et al. 2004)....
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TL;DR: The large ecological and societal consequences of changing biodiversity should be minimized to preserve options for future solutions to global environmental problems.
Abstract: Human alteration of the global environment has triggered the sixth major extinction event in the history of life and caused widespread changes in the global distribution of organisms. These changes in biodiversity alter ecosystem processes and change the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. This has profound consequences for services that humans derive from ecosystems. The large ecological and societal consequences of changing biodiversity should be minimized to preserve options for future solutions to global environmental problems.
3,977 citations
"Modeling the response of population..." refers background in this paper
...…has been hypothesized that ecosystem characteristics are determined by interactions between species such as competition (Connell 1961, Wethey 1984), mutualism (Brooker 2006), and trophic interactions (Goldberg and Barton 1992) rather than by the presence and absence of species (Chapin et al. 2000)....
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...Climate change impacts will resonate throughout trophic webs and biological communities (Chapin et al. 2000, Edwards and Richardson 2004, Brooker 2006, Harley et al. 2006)....
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