Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model

doi:10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2011.09.009

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Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model

Journal Article•DOI•

Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model

Dongjie Guan¹, HaiFeng Li², Takuro Inohae³, Weici Su⁴, Weici Su⁵, Tadashi Nagaie³, Kazunori Hokao², Kazunori Hokao³ - Show less +4 more•Institutions (5)

Chongqing Jiaotong University¹, Chongqing University², Saga University³, Chinese Academy of Sciences⁴, Chongqing Normal University⁵

01 Oct 2011-Ecological Modelling (Elsevier)-Vol. 222, Iss: 20, pp 3761-3772

TL;DR: In this article, a combined Markov-cellular automata model was used to analyze temporal change and spatial distribution of land use stressed by natural and socioeconomic factors in Saga, Japan.

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About: This article is published in Ecological Modelling.The article was published on 2011-10-01. It has received 462 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Land use, land-use change and forestry & Land use.

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Journal Article•DOI•

Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA

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Marwa Waseem A. Halmy¹, Paul E. Gessler², Jeffrey A. Hicke², Boshra Salem¹•Institutions (2)

Alexandria University¹, University of Idaho²

01 Sep 2015-Applied Geography

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied land use/land cover (LULC) changes in part of the northwestern desert of Egypt and used the Markov-CA integrated approach to predict future changes.

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344 citations

Cites background or methods from "Modeling urban land use change by t..."

...Land use/land cover change is considered one of the most important environmental issues of global concern (Guan et al., 2011; Veldkamp & Lambin, 2001)....
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...(Guan et al. 2011; Kamusoko et al. 2009; Parker et al. 2003; Theobald & Hobbs 1998)....
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...Land use/ cover models are used to assess the cumulative impact of land use change and develop future scenarios (Veldkamp & Lambin, 2001), which help and support land use planning and decision making (Guan et al., 2011)....
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...Integrated modeling approaches are considered more suitable for modeling land use change processes (Guan et al., 2011)....
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...Markov-CA models), and such models have been used to model and predict land use change at different scales (Guan et al., 2011; Weng, 2002; Ye & Bai, 2008)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Spatiotemporal urbanization processes in the megacity of Mumbai, India: A Markov chains-cellular automata urban growth model

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Hossein Shafizadeh Moghadam¹, Hossein Shafizadeh Moghadam², Marco Helbich²•Institutions (2)

Tarbiat Modares University¹, Heidelberg University²

01 Jun 2013-Applied Geography

TL;DR: In this paper, an integrated Markov Chains-Cellular Automata (MC-CA) urban growth model was implemented to predict the city's expansion for the years 2020-2030.

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308 citations

Cites background or methods or result from "Modeling urban land use change by t..."

...Previous research by Guan et al. (2011), Jokar Arsanjani et al. (2013), and Vaz et al. (2012), among others, affirms that this technique efficiently simulates urban growth....
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...Guan et al. (2011) also linked the MCeCA model to the analytical hierarchy process (AHP; Saaty, 1990), which allows weighting of land use transition potential on the basis of a set of potential maps (e.g., magnitude of slope), and incorporates growth constraints....
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...The meaningfulness and consistency of the weightings must be verified by means of the consistency ratio (Guan et al., 2011)....
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...Based on predefined site-specific rules mimicking land use transitions, CAs represent local raster-based simulation for modeling urban expansion for discrete time steps (Guan et al., 2011)....
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...The diagonal elements represent probability values for self-replacement, referring to land use types that remain similar (Guan et al., 2011)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Predicting Spatial and Decadal LULC Changes Through Cellular Automata Markov Chain Models Using Earth Observation Datasets and Geo-information

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Sudhir Kumar Singh¹, Sk. Mustak², Prashant K. Srivastava³, Prashant K. Srivastava⁴, Szilárd Szabó⁵, Tanvir Islam⁶, Tanvir Islam⁷ - Show less +3 more•Institutions (7)

Allahabad University¹, Pandit Ravishankar Shukla University², University of Maryland, College Park³, Goddard Space Flight Center⁴, University of Debrecen⁵, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration⁶, Colorado State University⁷

07 Feb 2015-Environmental Processes

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used remote sensing and GIS tools for studying land use/land cover change and integrating the associated driving factors for deriving useful outputs. And they used the CA-Markov Chain Model (CAMCM) to identify the spatial and temporal changes that have occurred in LULC in this area.

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Abstract: Remote sensing and GIS are important tools for studying land use/land cover (LULC) change and integrating the associated driving factors for deriving useful outputs. This study is based on utilization of Earth observation datasets over the highly urbanized Allahabad district in India. Allahabad district has experienced intense change in LULC in the last few decades. To monitor the changes, advanced techniques in remote sensing and GIS, such as Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Chain Model (CAMCM) were used to identify the spatial and temporal changes that have occurred in LULC in this area. Two images, 1990 and 2000, were used for calibration and optimization of the Markovian algorithm, while 2010 was used for validating the predictions of CA-Markov using the ground based land cover image. After validating the model, plausible future LULC changes for 2020 were predicted using the CAMCM. Analysis of the LULC pattern maps, achieved through classification of multi-temporal satellite datasets, indicated that the socio-economic and biophysical factors have greatly influenced the growth of agricultural lands and settlements in the area. The two urbanization indicators calculated in this study viz. Land Consumption Ratio (LCR) and Land Absorption Coefficient (LAC) were also used, which indicated a drastic change in the area in terms of urbanization. The predicted LULC scenario for year 2020 provides useful inputs to the LULC planners for effective and pragmatic management of the district and a direction for an effective land use policy making. Further suggestions for an effective policy making are also provided which can be used by government officials to protect this important land resource.

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235 citations

Cites background from "Modeling urban land use change by t..."

...recognized by many researchers by combining biophysical and socioeconomic data for simulation of accurate LULC in plausible future (Chen 2006; Kamusoko et al. 2009; Guan et al. 2011; Wang and Zhang 2001; Guan et al. 2011; Jokar Arsanjani et al. 2011; Jokar Arsanjani et al. 2013; Yang et al. 2014)....
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...…by many researchers by combining biophysical and socioeconomic data for simulation of accurate LULC in plausible future (Chen 2006; Kamusoko et al. 2009; Guan et al. 2011; Wang and Zhang 2001; Guan et al. 2011; Jokar Arsanjani et al. 2011; Jokar Arsanjani et al. 2013; Yang et al. 2014)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Spatio-temporal change of urban–rural equalized development patterns in China and its driving factors

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Yansui Liu¹, Yansui Liu², Shasha Lu³, Shasha Lu², Yufu Chen² - Show less +1 more•Institutions (3)

Beijing Normal University¹, Chinese Academy of Sciences², Beijing Forestry University³

01 Oct 2013-Journal of Rural Studies

TL;DR: Zhang et al. as mentioned in this paper put forward an innovative theory of URED against the background of China's urban-rural transformation using principal component analysis, Markov chain model and exploratory spatial data analysis model based on the data for 31 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities).

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208 citations

Cites background from "Modeling urban land use change by t..."

...A first-order Markov model is the model of a system inwhich probability distribution over next state is assumed to only depend on current state, but not on previous ones (non-aftereffect) (Veldkamp and Lambin, 2001; Fischer and Sun, 2001; Pijanowski et al., 2002; Guan et al., 2011)....
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...Markov process is a special random moving from one state to another state at each time step (Guan et al., 2011)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

A remote sensing aided multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain analysis for land use and land cover change prediction in Patna district (Bihar), India

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Varun Narayan Mishra¹, Praveen Kumar Rai²•Institutions (2)

Indian Institute of Technology (BHU) Varanasi¹, Banaras Hindu University²

24 Mar 2016-Arabian Journal of Geosciences

TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain analysis (MLP-MCA) integrated method was used to monitor and predict the future land use and land cover (LULC) change scenarios in Patna district, Bihar using remote sensing images.

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Abstract: Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are recognized as one of the most significant driver of environmental changes, mainly due to rapid urbanization. In this paper, an attempt has been made to appraise the ability of multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain analysis (MLP-MCA) integrated method to monitor and predict the future LULC change scenarios in Patna district, Bihar using remote sensing images. A supervised maximum likelihood classification method was applied to derive LULC maps from 1988, 2001, and 2013 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)/Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+)/Operational Land Imager (OLI) images, respectively. The LULC maps of 1988 and 2001 were employed to predict the LULC scenario for 2013 using MLP-MCA method. The predicted result was compared with the observed LULC map of 2013 to validate the method using kappa index statistics. Finally, based on the results, the future LULC change prediction for 2038 and 2050 was performed. The outcomes of this study reveal the rapid growth in built up area results in continuous decrease in agricultural lands.

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175 citations

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References

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Journal Article•DOI•

Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns

[...]

Roger White¹, Guy Engelen•Institutions (1)

St. John's University¹

01 Aug 1993-Environment and Planning A

TL;DR: A cellular automaton is developed to model the spatial structure of urban land use over time and to link the results directly to general theories of structural evolution.

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Abstract: Cellular automata belong to a family of discrete, connectionist techniques being used to investigate fundamental principles of dynamics, evolution, and self-organization. In this paper, a cellular automaton is developed to model the spatial structure of urban land use over time. For realistic parameter values, the model produces fractal or bifractal land-use structures for the urbanized area and for each individual land-use type. Data for a set of US cities show that they have very similar fractal dimensions. The cellular approach makes it possible to achieve a high level of spatial detail and realism and to link the results directly to general theories of structural evolution.

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1,070 citations

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Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality.

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Susanna T.Y. Tong¹, Wenli Chen¹•Institutions (1)

University of Cincinnati¹

01 Dec 2002-Journal of Environmental Management

TL;DR: From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales, and it reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales.

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932 citations

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Predicting land-use change

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A. Veldkamp¹, Eric F. Lambin²•Institutions (2)

Wageningen University and Research Centre¹, Université catholique de Louvain²

01 Jun 2001-Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

TL;DR: In this article, a workshop on spatially explicit land-use/land-cover models was organised within the scope of the Land-Use and Land Cover Change project (LUCC).

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912 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using satellite remote sensing, GIS and stochastic modelling

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Qihao Weng¹•Institutions (1)

Indiana State University¹

01 Mar 2002-Journal of Environmental Management

TL;DR: The study demonstrates that the integration of satellite remote sensing and GIS was an effective approach for analyzing the direction, rate, and spatial pattern of land use change.

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802 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes: a Land Transformation Model

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Bryan C. Pijanowski¹, Daniel G. Brown², Bradley A. Shellito¹, Gaurav A Manik¹•Institutions (2)

Michigan State University¹, University of Michigan²

01 Nov 2002-Computers, Environment and Urban Systems

TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a version of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) parameterized for Michigan's Grand Traverse Bay Watershed and explored how factors such as roads, highways, residential streets, rivers, Great Lakes coastlines, recreational facilities, inland lakes, agricultural density, and quality of views can influence urbanization patterns in this coastal watershed.

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671 citations