Modelling spatial variations of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): evidence from a global perspective.
TL;DR: Understanding is expanded of the relationship between COVID-19 cases and deaths by using a global dataset and the instrumental variable generalized method of moment’s model (IV-GMM) for the analysis that addresses endogeneity and omitted variable issues.
Abstract: In late December 2019, strange pneumonia was detected in a seafood market in Wuhan, China which was later termed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization. At present, the virus has spread across 232 countries worldwide killing 2,409,011 as of 17 February 2021 (9:37 CET). Motivated by a recent dataset, knowledge gaps, surge in global cases, and the need to combat the virus spread, this study examined the relationship between COVID-19 confirmed cases and attributable deaths at the global and regional levels. We used a panel of 232 countries (further disaggregated into Africa-49, Americas-54, Eastern Mediterranean-23, Europe-61, Southeast Asia-10, and Western Pacific-35) from 03 January 2020 to 28 November 2020, and the instrumental variable generalized method of moment's model (IV-GMM) for analysing the datasets. The results showed that COVID-19 confirmed cases at both the global and regional levels have a strong positive effect on deaths. Thus, the confirmed cases significantly increase attributable deaths at the global and regional levels. At the global level, a 1% increase in confirmed cases increases attributable deaths by 0.78%. Regionally, a 1% increase in confirmed cases increases attributable deaths by 0.65% in Africa, 0.90% in the Americas, 0.67% in the Eastern Mediterranean, 0.72% in Europe, 0.88% in Southeast Asia, and 0.52% in the Western Pacific. This study expands the understanding of the relationship between COVID-19 cases and deaths by using a global dataset and the instrumental variable generalized method of moment's model (IV-GMM) for the analysis that addresses endogeneity and omitted variable issues.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the geography of excess mortality and its underlying factors in 2020, highlighting the effects of health policies pre-pandemic and strategies devised by governments to cope with Covid-19.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Government responses to the pandemic varied in terms of timing, duration, and stringency, seeking to protect healthcare systems, whose pre-pandemic state varied significantly. Therefore, the severity of Covid-19 and, thus, excess mortality have been unequal across counties. This paper explores the geography of excess mortality and its underlying factors in 2020, highlighting the effects of health policies pre-pandemic and strategies devised by governments to cope with Covid-19. METHODS: Excess mortality is estimated for 79 high, medium and low-income countries. The factors of excess mortality are examined employing median quantile regression analysis. RESULTS: Health privatization, healthcare underfunding, and late implementation of containment and mitigation strategies were powerful drivers of excess mortality. By contrast, the results suggest a negative association of excess mortality with health expenditure, number of doctors and hospital beds, share of population covered by health insurance and test and trace capacity. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence highlights the importance of sufficiently funded healthcare systems with universal access and strong primary healthcare in the battle against the pandemic. An early response to Covid-19, including borders' controls and a strong test and trace capacity, could improve epidemiological surveillance and minimize excess mortality, with stringent and lengthy lockdowns not providing a significant benefit.
20 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the most relevant impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment during the pandemic and post-COVID-2019 era and discuss the impacts of these pandemic events on human health and the environment.
Abstract: This review paper discusses the most relevant impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The disease has infected 70 million people and caused the death of 1.58 million people since the US Food and Drug Administration issued an Emergency Use Authorization to develop a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 on December 11, 2020. COVID-19 is a global crisis that has impacted everything directly connected with human beings, including the environment. This review discusses the impacts of COVID-19 on the environment during the pandemic and post-COVID-19 era. During the first months of the COVID pandemic, global coal, oil, gas, and electricity demands declined by 8%, 5%, 2%, and 20%, respectively, relative to 2019. Stay-at-home orders in countries increased the concentrations of particles in indoor environments while decreasing the concentrations of PM2.5 and NOX in outdoor environments. Remotely working in response to the COVID-19 pandemic increased the carbon, water, and land footprints of Internet usage. Microplastics are released into our environment from the mishandling and mismanagement of personal protective equipment that endanger our water, soils, and sediments. Since the COVID-19 vaccine cannot be stored for a long time and spoils rapidly, more awareness of the massive waste of unused doses is needed. So COVID-19 is a double-edged sword for the environment.
6 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors evaluated the clusters of Covid-19 among the provinces in Turkey and examined whether the clustering pattern has changed after the country's lockdown strategy, and the importance of spatial relations in preventing the spread of the disease in Turkey has also been demonstrated in this context.
Abstract: The earliest case of Covid-19 was documented in Wuhan city of China and since then the virus has been spreading throughout the globe. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clusters of Covid-19 among the provinces in Turkey and to examine whether the clustering pattern has changed after the country's lockdown strategy. The spatial dependence of Covid-19 in 81 provinces of Turkey was examined by spatial analysis between February 8 and June 28, 2021. Global and Local Moran's I and Gi* were employed to measure the global and local spatial autocorrelation degrees. The geographical distribution of Covid-19 in the provinces of Turkey showed a strong spatial autocorrelation while the spatial structure of the clusters varied by weeks. The findings of the study show that the complete lockdown carried out in Turkey has been quite effective in mitigating Covid-19. The importance of spatial relations in preventing the spread of the disease in Turkey has also been demonstrated in this context.
2 citations
26 Jan 2022
TL;DR: In this article , a model has been formulated to study transmission dynamics of the disease and the basic properties of the model such as the basic reproduction number, equilibrium points and stability of the equilibrium points have been determined.
Abstract: : Almost every country in the world is battling to limit the spread of COVID-19. As the world strives to get an effective medication to control the disease, appropriate intervention measures, for now, remains one of the effective methods to reduce the spread of the disease. Optimal control strategies have proven to be an effective method in curtailing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, a model has been formulated to study transmission dynamics of the disease. Basic properties of the model such as the basic reproduction number, equilibrium points and stability of the equilibrium points have been determined. Sensitivity analysis was carried on to determine the impact of the model parameters on the basic reproduction number. We also introduced a compartment for the deceased and examined the behaviour of COVID-19 related deaths. The numerical simulation prediction is consistent with real data from Ghana for the period March 2020 to March 2021. The simulation revealed the disease had less impact on the population during the first seven months of the outbreak.To help contain the spread of the disease, time dependent optimal controls were incorporated into the model and Pontryagin maximum principle was used to characterize vital conditions of the optimal control model. Numerical simulations of the optimal control model showed that, combination of optimal preventive strategies such as nose mask and vaccination are effective to significantly decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in different compartments of the model . Vaccination decreases the susceptibility to the disease whereas mask usage preserved the susceptible population from extinction.
1 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors used the instrumental variable-generalized method of moments (IV-GMM) approach to assess the impact of renewable energy consumption (REC) on carbon lock-in.
1 citations
References
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Yueling Ma1, Yadong Zhao2, Jiangtao Liu1, Xiaotao He1, Bo Wang1, Shihua Fu1, Jun Yan1, Jingping Niu1, Ji Zhou3, Bin Luo4, Bin Luo1 •
TL;DR: The temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality, as suggested in this study.
759 citations
"Modelling spatial variations of nov..." refers background in this paper
...Likewise, COVID-19 daily deaths had a direct relationship with the diurnal temperature range and an inverse relationship with relative humidity (Ma et al., 2020)....
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TL;DR: It is found that average temperature, minimum temperature, and air quality were significantly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
555 citations
"Modelling spatial variations of nov..." refers background in this paper
...5, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide were significantly correlated with COVID-19 cases and deaths (Bashir et al., 2020b)....
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...The average temperature, minimum temperature, and air quality had significant associations with COVID-19 cases and deaths (Bashir et al., 2020a)....
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TL;DR: The findings here suggest that to minimize the impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19, the max number of days per year in which Italian provincial capitals can exceed the limits set for PM10 or for ozone, considering their meteorological conditions, is about 48 days.
488 citations
"Modelling spatial variations of nov..." refers background in this paper
...At present, the virus is spreading at an exponential rate worldwide (Adekunle et al., 2020) with human-to-human-transmission, temperature, and air pollution being the main diffusion channels (Coccia, 2020; Roy, 2020)....
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...…to unravel the nexus between cases and deaths (albeit mostly on a regional and national basis), the transmission factors and mechanisms, and the detection of clusters (e.g., Adekunle et al., 2020; Coccia, 2020; Desjardins et al., 2020; Huang et al., 2021; Roy, 2020; Sarkodie & Owusu, 2020)....
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...Coccia (2020) model showed that COVID19 transmission has a high association with air pollution of cities in the presence of low wind speed....
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...…West African Studies, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China e-mail: appiahotooi@yahoo.com M. B. Kursah Department of Geography Education, University of Education, Winneba (UEW), Box 25, Winneba, Ghana e-mail: mkursah@uew.edu.gh collapse and death (Coccia, 2020)....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak, including the number of infected people, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period.
392 citations
"Modelling spatial variations of nov..." refers background or methods in this paper
...Using the Sobol-Jansen and partial correlation methods, Ahmadi et al. (2020) established that intraprovincial movement and population density have a positive effect on COVID-19 cases....
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...For instance, an inverse relationship between the wind speed and humidity on the other hand, and COVID-19 cases on the other has been reported (Ahmadi et al., 2020)....
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