Monetary policy rules
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a co-operative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, and present their findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment and exchange.
Abstract: This volume presents late-1990s thinking on monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A co-operative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. This work illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, the text should be of interest for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and estimated a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule to set prices, and the model nests the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case.
2,514 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the unconditional expectation of average household utility is expressed in terms of the unconditional variances of the output gap, price inflation, and wage inflation, where the model exhibits a tradeoff in stabilizing output gap and price inflation.
1,813 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors introduce methods to compute impulse responses without specification and estimation of the underlying multivariate dynamic system by estimating local projections at each period of interest rather than extrapolating into increasingly distant horizons from a given model, as it is done with VARs.
Abstract: This paper introduces methods to compute impulse responses without specification and estimation of the underlying multivariate dynamic system The central idea consists in estimating local projections at each period of interest rather than extrapolating into increasingly distant horizons from a given model, as it is done with vector autoregressions (VAR) The advantages of local projections are numerous: (1) they can be estimated by simple regression techniques with standard regression packages; (2) they are more robust to misspecification; (3) joint or point-wise analytic inference is simple; and (4) they easily accommodate experimentation with highly non-linear and flexible specifications that may be impractical in a multivariate context Therefore, these methods are a natural alternative to estimating impulse responses from VARs Monte Carlo evidence and an application to a simple, closed-economy, new-Keynesian model clarify these numerous advantages
1,761 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a microeconomic model of price setting is used to show that lower pass-through is caused by lower perceived persistence of cost changes, suggesting that the low inflation itself has caused the low passthrough, and an economy-wide model consistent with the micromodel is presented to illustrate how such changes in pricing power affect output and inflation dynamics in favorable ways, but can disappear quickly if monetary policy and expectations change.
1,321 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap.
Abstract: We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to a simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyse the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rulebased policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference among these regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.
1,311 citations