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Journal ArticleDOI

Multi-Decadal Changes in Tundra Environments and Ecosystems: Synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)

TL;DR: Results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies and forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century.
Abstract: Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in sub-arctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide, was used to understand the sensitivity of tundras vegetation to climate warming and to forecast future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate.
Abstract: 35 Abstract Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

830 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, remote sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity and increased productivity in the tundra biome (Tundra Tundra Bi biome).
Abstract: Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome(1). Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity ov ...

782 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Research now indicates that temperature and vegetation seasonality in northern ecosystems have diminished to an extent equivalent to a southerly shift of 4°– 7° in latitude, and may reach the equivalent of up to 20° over the twenty-first century.
Abstract: Pronounced increases in winter temperature result in lower seasonal temperature differences, with implications for vegetation seasonality and productivity. Research now indicates that temperature and vegetation seasonality in northern ecosystems have diminished to an extent equivalent to a southerly shift of 4°– 7° in latitude, and may reach the equivalent of up to 20° over the twenty-first century.

517 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The State of the Climate for 2011 as mentioned in this paper is a very low-resolution file and it can be downloaded in a few minutes for a high-resolution version of the report to download.
Abstract: Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2011 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download. Supplemental figures and datasets are available here.

209 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1989
TL;DR: The flora of the Sahel is rather poor, i.e. approximately 1500 species of flowering plants for an area of 3 million km2 The flora is typically paleotropical The richest families are: Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Leguminoseae, Capparidaceae, Malvaceae, Convolvulaceae, Zygophyllaceae, Euphorbiaceae, Asclepiadaceae, Acanthaceae and Solanaceae as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The flora of the Sahel is rather poor, ie approximately 1500 species of flowering plants for an area of 3 million km2 The flora is typically paleotropical The richest families are: Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Leguminoseae, Capparidaceae, Malvaceae, Convolvulaceae, Zygophyllaceae, Euphorbiaceae, Asclepiadaceae, Acanthaceae and Solanaceae The rate of endemism is very low: some 40 species, ie 3% (White 1983) There are some 200 species confined to the intertropical African arid zone of West, East and South Africa Many species are shared with the Sudanian zone, which, in the Sahel, are restricted to watercourses, around ponds and areas subject to flooding

201 citations

References
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Book
01 Jul 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors set the stage for impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, and developed and applied scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers Technical summary Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment: 1. Overview 2. Methods and tools 3. Development and application of scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 4. Hydrology and water resources 5. Natural and managed ecosystems 6. Coastal zones and marine ecosystems 7. Energy, industry, and settlements 8. Financial services 9. Human health Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: 10. Africa 11. Asia 12. Australasia 13. Europe 14. Latin America 15. North America 16. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 17. Small island states Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis: 18. Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity 19. Synthesis and integration of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability Index.

12,541 citations

Book
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a cross-chapter case study on climate change and sustainability in natural and managed systems and assess key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, and assess adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity.
Abstract: Foreword Preface Introduction Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability - 811 Cross-chapter case studies Appendix I. Glossary Appendix II. Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix III. Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report Appendix IV. Acronyms and abbreviations Appendix V. Index and database of regional content Index CD-ROM.

8,465 citations

Book
01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a historical overview of climate change science, including changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing, as well as changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground.
Abstract: Summary for policymakers -- Technical summary -- Historical overview of climate change science -- Changes in atmospheric constituents and radiative forcing -- Observations: atmospheric surface and climate change -- Observations: changes in snow, ice, and frozen ground -- Observations: ocean climate change and sea level -- Paleoclimate -- Coupling between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry -- Climate models and their evaluation -- Understanding and attributing climate change -- Global climate projections -- Regional climate projections -- Annex I: Glossary -- Annex II: Contributors to the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex III: Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Fourth Assessment Report -- Annex IV: Acronyms.

7,738 citations

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