Multi-layer wind velocity field visualization in infrared images of clouds for solar irradiance forecasting
TL;DR: This article investigates how to infer multiple wind velocity fields using consecutive longwave infrared (IR) images of clouds to forecast the occlusion of the Sun by clouds.
About: This article is published in Applied Energy.The article was published on 2021-04-15 and is currently open access. It has received 18 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Wind speed & Solar irradiance.
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TL;DR: In this paper , a study on data-driven probabilistic machine learning (ML) techniques and their real-time applications to smart energy systems and networks was conducted to highlight the urgency of this area of research.
Abstract: The current trend indicates that energy demand and supply will eventually be controlled by autonomous software that optimizes decision-making and energy distribution operations. New state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) technologies are integral in optimizing decision-making in energy distribution networks and systems. This study was conducted on data-driven probabilistic ML techniques and their real-time applications to smart energy systems and networks to highlight the urgency of this area of research. This study focused on two key areas: i) the use of ML in core energy technologies and ii) the use cases of ML for energy distribution utilities. The core energy technologies include the use of ML in advanced energy materials, energy systems and storage devices, energy efficiency, smart energy material manufacturing in the smart grid paradigm, strategic energy planning, integration of renewable energy, and big data analytics in the smart grid environment. The investigated ML area in energy distribution systems includes energy consumption and price forecasting, the merit order of energy price forecasting, and the consumer lifetime value. Cybersecurity topics for power delivery and utilization, grid edge systems and distributed energy resources, power transmission, and distribution systems are also briefly studied. The primary goal of this work was to identify common issues useful in future studies on ML for smooth energy distribution operations. This study was concluded with many energy perspectives on significant opportunities and challenges. It is noted that if the smart ML automation is used in its targeting energy systems, the utility sector and energy industry could potentially save from $237 billion up to $813 billion. • A study on data-driven probabilistic machine learning (ML) in sustainable smart energy/smart energy systems is conducted. • The use of probabilistic ML in core energy technologies are briefly studied. • The ML techniques play a key role in integrating thermal, electric, large-scale renewable energy resources and fuel gird.A variety of tools for implementing ML in energy systems control, efficient management, and operations are discussed. • Recent key developments of ML, its challenges, and state-of-art future research opportunities are briefly described.
61 citations
TL;DR: In this article , an end-to-end short-term forecasting model is proposed to take satellite images as inputs, and it can learn the cloud motion characteristics from stacked optical flow maps.
Abstract: Developing solar power generation technology is an efficient approach to relieving the global environmental crisis. However, solar energy is an energy source with strong uncertainty, which restricts large-scale photovoltaic (PV) applications until accurate solar energy predictions can be achieved. PV power forecasting methods have been widely researched based on existing predictions of satellite-derived solar irradiance, whereas modeling cloud motion directly from satellite images is still a tough task. In this study, an end-to-end short-term forecasting model is proposed to take satellite images as inputs, and it can learn the cloud motion characteristics from stacked optical flow maps. In order to reduce the huge size of measurements, static regions of interest (ROIs) are scoped based on historical cloud velocities. With its well-designed deep learning architecture, the proposed model can output multi-step-ahead prediction results sequentially by shifting receptive attention to dynamic ROIs. According to comparisons with related studies, the proposed model outperforms persistence and derived methods, and enhances its learning capability relative to conventional learning models via the novel architecture. The model can be applied to PV plants or arrays in different areas, suitable for forecast horizons within three hours.
19 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , a mode-decomposition memory reinforcement network strategy is proposed to reduce the impact of random fluctuations and uncertainties on power systems, which combines the traditional methods and intelligent algorithms for smart generation control.
9 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a comparison between discriminative and generative models for cloud segmentation is presented, where both unsupervised and supervised learning methods are evaluated using the j-statistic.
8 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors proposed an innovative framework that integrates ground and satellite observations through deep learning to enhance PV output forecasts, where cloud motion patterns are captured from satellite observations using convolutional neural networks, and the long-range spatio-temporal cloud impacts on subsequent PV outputs are established by LSTM network.
Abstract: Accurate output forecasts are essential for photovoltaic projects to achieve stable power supply. Traditional forecasts based on ground observation time series are widely troubled by the phase lag issue due to the incomplete consideration of the impacts of cloud motion. With the consensus that this issue can be addressed by introducing satellite-derived cloud information, we propose an innovative framework that integrates ground and satellite observations through deep learning to enhance PV output forecasts. Cloud motion patterns are captured from satellite observations using convolutional neural networks, and the long-range spatio-temporal cloud impacts on subsequent PV outputs are established by long short-term memory network. The forecast accuracy of real-time PV output is significantly improved, with a minimum (maximum) relative root mean square error of 16% (29%). The ratio of phase lag is reduced to 15% on average. This work provides a potential for alleviating the power intermittency of solar PV system and making advance planning in solar energy utilization.
6 citations
References
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TL;DR: High generalization ability of support-vector networks utilizing polynomial input transformations is demonstrated and the performance of the support- vector network is compared to various classical learning algorithms that all took part in a benchmark study of Optical Character Recognition.
Abstract: The support-vector network is a new learning machine for two-group classification problems. The machine conceptually implements the following idea: input vectors are non-linearly mapped to a very high-dimension feature space. In this feature space a linear decision surface is constructed. Special properties of the decision surface ensures high generalization ability of the learning machine. The idea behind the support-vector network was previously implemented for the restricted case where the training data can be separated without errors. We here extend this result to non-separable training data.
High generalization ability of support-vector networks utilizing polynomial input transformations is demonstrated. We also compare the performance of the support-vector network to various classical learning algorithms that all took part in a benchmark study of Optical Character Recognition.
37,861 citations
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TL;DR: Presenting a method for determining the necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency of learning process, the author covers function estimates from small data pools, applying these estimations to real-life problems, and much more.
Abstract: A comprehensive look at learning and generalization theory. The statistical theory of learning and generalization concerns the problem of choosing desired functions on the basis of empirical data. Highly applicable to a variety of computer science and robotics fields, this book offers lucid coverage of the theory as a whole. Presenting a method for determining the necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency of learning process, the author covers function estimates from small data pools, applying these estimations to real-life problems, and much more.
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22,840 citations
"Multi-layer wind velocity field vis..." refers methods in this paper
...The parameters in the clustering of beta distributions can be directly computed applying the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm [57, 58]....
[...]
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01 Nov 2008TL;DR: Numerical Optimization presents a comprehensive and up-to-date description of the most effective methods in continuous optimization, responding to the growing interest in optimization in engineering, science, and business by focusing on the methods that are best suited to practical problems.
Abstract: Numerical Optimization presents a comprehensive and up-to-date description of the most effective methods in continuous optimization. It responds to the growing interest in optimization in engineering, science, and business by focusing on the methods that are best suited to practical problems. For this new edition the book has been thoroughly updated throughout. There are new chapters on nonlinear interior methods and derivative-free methods for optimization, both of which are used widely in practice and the focus of much current research. Because of the emphasis on practical methods, as well as the extensive illustrations and exercises, the book is accessible to a wide audience. It can be used as a graduate text in engineering, operations research, mathematics, computer science, and business. It also serves as a handbook for researchers and practitioners in the field. The authors have strived to produce a text that is pleasant to read, informative, and rigorous - one that reveals both the beautiful nature of the discipline and its practical side.
17,420 citations
"Multi-layer wind velocity field vis..." refers methods in this paper
...In the M stage, the parameters αc and βc of each cluster that maximize the log-likelihood are computed by gradient descent of the CDLL [59]....
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Proceedings Article•
24 Aug 1981TL;DR: In this paper, the spatial intensity gradient of the images is used to find a good match using a type of Newton-Raphson iteration, which can be generalized to handle rotation, scaling and shearing.
Abstract: Image registration finds a variety of applications in computer vision. Unfortunately, traditional image registration techniques tend to be costly. We present a new image registration technique that makes use of the spatial intensity gradient of the images to find a good match using a type of Newton-Raphson iteration. Our technique is taster because it examines far fewer potential matches between the images than existing techniques Furthermore, this registration technique can be generalized to handle rotation, scaling and shearing. We show how our technique can be adapted tor use in a stereo vision system.
12,944 citations