Multi-Objective Hydro-Economic Modeling for Sustainable Groundwater Management
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and applied a hydroeconomic based multi-objective optimization model for sustainable groundwater management and developed a tradeoff surface between possible loss to long-term agricultural profit, groundwater level, and required energy for pumping.
Abstract: Groundwater sustainability may refer to its exploitation and use for the present needs while maintaining the resource for future generations without unacceptable environmental, economic, and social consequences. For transitioning toward groundwater resource sustainability, specific adaptive management policies should be developed to achieve pre-specified goals. Focusing on demand side measures, this paper develops and applies a hydro-economic based multi-objective optimization model for sustainable groundwater management. Solution to the model develops a tradeoff surface between possible loss to long-term agricultural profit, groundwater level, and required energy for groundwater pumping. Farming practice and cropping pattern, quantity and timing of groundwater pumping, and energy consumption are optimized for transitioning toward long term groundwater sustainability. The simulation model is coupled with a multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm for developing a set of non-dominated optimal solutions for sustaining groundwater table in a groundwater basin in Isfahan, Iran. Recovery time of transitioning to groundwater sustainability is dynamically varied to assess the impact of different strategies on agricultural economy, mean annual groundwater level drop, and required energy for pumping. Results show that the optimal strategy for sustaining groundwater level at its present condition would result in 17% reduction in agricultural profit to the region. The same strategy would reduce energy use for groundwater pumping by more than 19%, compared to the business as usual strategy.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the adaptability of the proposed cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water resources in increasing groundwater sustainability while increasing the sustainability of water allocation to the agricultural sector under possible climate change scenarios.
Abstract: Groundwater overdraft in many regions throughout the world has been threatening the sustainability of this valuable resource. It has been argued that climate change may contribute to the severity of the issue; hence “impact assessment” is being replaced by “adaptation,” which explores more adapting scenarios and approaches. This study explores the adaptability of the proposed cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water resources in increasing groundwater sustainability while increasing the sustainability of water allocation to the agricultural sector under possible climate change scenarios. To simulate climate change in the study area, precipitation and temperature variables are extracted from the results of three global atmospheric circulation models (Ensemble, CMCC-CMS, MRI-CGCM3) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the period of 2021–2031. Spatial downscaling is performed using the M5 decision tree algorithm. The Wavelet-M5 hybrid model is used to predict runoff values as a rainfall-runoff model. Also, the Kharrufa method is applied to calculate evaporation in the future seasons. The system's adaptability to climate change is examined using the multi-objective cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use of surface and groundwater models. The study reveals that cyclic operation strategy improves the conjunctive use system adaptability compared to the optimal operation strategy that employs the non-cyclic approach. In this study's case study, the improvement in groundwater sustainability index exceeds 27 percent over the non-cyclic conjunctive use strategy.
16 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors investigated the impacts of water diversion, water use change, as well as climate variability in the future on groundwater storage (GWS) in the North China Plain (NCP).
Abstract: The North China Plain (NCP) has been subjected to groundwater overexploitation over the past decades as a result of rapid socioeconomic development and irrigation water demand with relatively limited renewable water resources. Operation of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWD-M) since December 2014 has provided an opportunity for groundwater sustainability in the NCP by increasing water supply and reducing groundwater abstraction. Water use changes have largely been driven by socioeconomic changes. However, impacts of water diversion, water use change, as well as climate variability in the future on groundwater storage (GWS) in the NCP have not been investigated. This study aims to simulate and project GWS in the NCP during 2005–2050 by incorporating effects of water diversion, water use, and climate variability. The high-resolution Community Water Model with 30 arcsec spatial resolution was set up to assess interactions between water demand and availability by simulating surface water and groundwater abstraction dynamically. Results show that water diversion and reductions in water use may increase GWS over the NCP in 2050 by 144 mm (19 km3) and 573 mm (75 km3), respectively. Evaluation of GWS among different scenarios shows that combinations of factors, including water use reductions, water diversion, and precipitation variability can contribute up to 73%, 37%, and 32% to GWS stability, respectively. This study highlights the contributions of different management strategies toward sustainable GWS and the importance of water conservation along with diversions.
14 citations
DOI•
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors investigated the impacts of water diversion, water use change, as well as climate variability in the future on groundwater storage (GWS) in the North China Plain (NCP).
Abstract: The North China Plain (NCP) has been subjected to groundwater overexploitation over the past decades as a result of rapid socioeconomic development and irrigation water demand with relatively limited renewable water resources. Operation of the middle route of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project (SNWD‐M) since December 2014 has provided an opportunity for groundwater sustainability in the NCP by increasing water supply and reducing groundwater abstraction. Water use changes have largely been driven by socioeconomic changes. However, impacts of water diversion, water use change, as well as climate variability in the future on groundwater storage (GWS) in the NCP have not been investigated. This study aims to simulate and project GWS in the NCP during 2005–2050 by incorporating effects of water diversion, water use, and climate variability. The high‐resolution Community Water Model with 30 arcsec spatial resolution was set up to assess interactions between water demand and availability by simulating surface water and groundwater abstraction dynamically. Results show that water diversion and reductions in water use may increase GWS over the NCP in 2050 by 144 mm (19 km3) and 573 mm (75 km3), respectively. Evaluation of GWS among different scenarios shows that combinations of factors, including water use reductions, water diversion, and precipitation variability can contribute up to 73%, 37%, and 32% to GWS stability, respectively. This study highlights the contributions of different management strategies toward sustainable GWS and the importance of water conservation along with diversions.
14 citations
TL;DR: This study provides Huanghua Port with a water resource dispatching optimization solution but also provides a decision-making reference for the green and intelligent transformation and upgrading of other large-scale coal bulk ports.
12 citations
TL;DR: In this article , a system dynamics model for the Sistan Water Resources System (SWRS) is developed to analyze the complicated water management system in the basin, which considers major hydrological, socioeconomic, agricultural, and, specifically, environmental aspects.
8 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present guidelines for watershed model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific considerations, including single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project scope and magnitude.
Abstract: Watershed models are powerful tools for simulating the effect of watershed processes and management on soil and water resources. However, no comprehensive guidance is available to facilitate model evaluation in terms of the accuracy of simulated data compared to measured flow and constituent values. Thus, the objectives of this research were to: (1) determine recommended model evaluation techniques (statistical and graphical), (2) review reported ranges of values and corresponding performance ratings for the recommended statistics, and (3) establish guidelines for model evaluation based on the review results and project-specific considerations; all of these objectives focus on simulation of streamflow and transport of sediment and nutrients. These objectives were achieved with a thorough review of relevant literature on model application and recommended model evaluation methods. Based on this analysis, we recommend that three quantitative statistics, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), in addition to the graphical techniques, be used in model evaluation. The following model evaluation performance ratings were established for each recommended statistic. In general, model simulation can be judged as satisfactory if NSE > 0.50 and RSR < 0.70, and if PBIAS + 25% for streamflow, PBIAS + 55% for sediment, and PBIAS + 70% for N and P. For PBIAS, constituent-specific performance ratings were determined based on uncertainty of measured data. Additional considerations related to model evaluation guidelines are also discussed. These considerations include: single-event simulation, quality and quantity of measured data, model calibration procedure, evaluation time step, and project scope and magnitude. A case study illustrating the application of the model evaluation guidelines is also provided.
9,386 citations
TL;DR: This paper identifies the key steps in model design and diverse problems, formulations, levels of integration, spatial and temporal scales, and solution techniques addressed and used by over 80 hydro-economic modeling efforts dating back 45 years from 23 countries.
617 citations
TL;DR: In this tutorial, techniques for building valid and credible simulation models are presented and the importance of a definitive problem formulation, discussions with subject-matter experts, and interacting with the decision-maker on a regular basis are discussed.
Abstract: In this tutorial we present techniques for building valid and credible simulation models. Ideas to be discussed include the importance of a definitive problem formulation, discussions with subject-matter experts, interacting with the decision-maker on a regular basis, development of a written assumptions document, structured walk-through of the assumptions document, use of sensitivity analysis to determine important model factors, and comparison of model and system output data for an existing system (if any). Each idea will be illustrated by one or more real-world examples. We will also discuss the difficulty in using formal statistical techniques (e.g., confidence intervals) to validate simulation models.
362 citations
"Multi-Objective Hydro-Economic Mode..." refers background in this paper
...Validation is the process of determining whether or not a simulation model is an accurate representation of the system for the predefined objectives of the study (Law and McComas 2001)....
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...The reputation of the model’s developer may also help gain credibility (Law and McComas 2001)....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors simulate spatiotemporal variability in groundwater depletion across the entire North China Plain (NCP) and explore approaches to reduce future depletion and provide valuable insights for developing more sustainable groundwater management options for the NCP; the methods are useful for managing other depleted aquifers.
Abstract: [1] The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the global hotspots of groundwater depletion. Currently, our understanding is limited on spatiotemporal variability in depletion and approaches toward more sustainable groundwater development in this region. This study was intended to simulate spatiotemporal variability in groundwater depletion across the entire NCP and explore approaches to reduce future depletion. Simulated predevelopment groundwater recharge (∼13 km3/yr) primarily discharged as base flow to rivers and evapotranspiration. Initial groundwater storage was estimated to be 1500 km3 of drainable storage in shallow aquifers and 40 km3 of compressive storage in deep aquifers. Simulated groundwater depletion from 1960s to 2008 averaged ∼4 km3/yr. Cumulative depletion was 50 km3 (∼20% of pumpage) in the piedmont district, 103 km3 (∼20%) in the central plain, and 5 km3 (12%) in the coastal plain. However, depletion varied with time: ∼2.5 km3/yr in the 1970s, ∼4.0 in the 1980s, ∼2.0 in 1990–1996; ∼7.0 in 1997–2001, and ∼4.0 in 2002–2008. Recharge also varied spatially, averaging ∼120 mm/yr and concentrated in the piedmont district (200–350 mm/yr) while lower in the central and coastal plains (50–100 mm/yr). Simulation of several alternatives, including managed aquifer recharge, increased water use efficiency, brackish water use, and interbasin water transfer, indicated that the combination of these strategies could be used to recover groundwater storage by 50 km3 over a 15-year period. This study provides valuable insights for developing more sustainable groundwater management options for the NCP; the methods are useful for managing other depleted aquifers.
282 citations
04 Dec 2005
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present techniques for building valid and credible simulation models, including the importance of a definitive problem formulation, discussions with subject-matter experts, interacting with the decision-maker on a regular basis, development of a written assumptions document, structured walk-through of the assumptions document and use of sensitivity analysis to determine important model factors.
Abstract: In this tutorial we present techniques for building valid and credible simulation models. Ideas to be discussed include the importance of a definitive problem formulation, discussions with subject-matter experts, interacting with the decision-maker on a regular basis, development of a written assumptions document, structured walk-through of the assumptions document, use of sensitivity analysis to determine important model factors, and comparison of model and system output data for an existing system (if any). Each idea will be illustrated by one or more real-world examples. We will also discuss the difficulty in using formal statistical techniques (e.g., confidence intervals) to validate simulation models.
234 citations