Near Earth Asteroids with measurable Yarkovsky effect
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...Given an estimated value of AT and the assumed value of d, one can readily derive the time-averaged da/dt using Gauss’ planetary equations (Farnocchia et al. 2013b)....
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...As the Yarkovsky induced orbital drift depends on the osculating orbital elements (Farnocchia et al. 2013b), there are also commensurable variations in the da/dt evolution (see Fig....
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...More recently Nugent et al. (2012) and Farnocchia et al. (2013b) have estimated the Yarkovsky effect for a few tens of near-Earth asteroids by using a formulation that depends on a single parameter to be determined from the orbital fit....
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...The orbital predictions and the impact hazard assessment are then performed by a Monte Carlo simulation that accounts for both the Yarkovsky effect distribution and the orbital uncertainty (Farnocchia et al. 2013a; Farnocchia and Chesley 2014)....
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...Importantly, it requires no information about the physical characteristics or spin state of the asteroid, and so it can be implemented readily in cases where only astrometric information is available (e.g., Vokrouhlický et al. 2008; Chesley et al. 2008; Nugent et al. 2012; Farnocchia et al. 2013b)....
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"Near Earth Asteroids with measurabl..." refers background in this paper
...This results in an area to mass ratio A/M = (2.72 ± 0.39) × 10−4 m3/kg, which is consistent at the 1-σ level with the value reported by Micheli et al. (2012), i.e., (2.97 ± 0.33) × 10−4 m3/kg....
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...Micheli et al. (2012) show that including solar radiation pressure allows an improvement in the fit to the observations and the recovery of Mauna Kea observations....
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...Asteroid 2009 BD is very small and to fit its observational dataset it is necessary to include solar radiation pressure (Micheli et al., 2012)....
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"Near Earth Asteroids with measurabl..." refers background in this paper
...In both cases the Yarkovsky effect is large enough to shift the position at the scattering close approach by an amount much larger than the distance between the keyholes (Chodas, 1999) corresponding to impacts in later years (2036, 2037, 2068 for Apophis; 2175, 2180, 2196 for 1999 RQ36)....
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