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Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets

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TLDR
In this article, the authors present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns.
Abstract
We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders' beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational arbitrageurs from aggressively betting against them. As a result, prices can diverge significantly from fundamental values even in the absence of fundamental risk. Moreover, bearing a disproportionate amount of risk that they themselves create enables noise traders to earn a higher expected return than rational investors do. The model sheds light on a number of financial anomalies, including the excess volatility of asset prices, the mean reversion of stock returns, the underpricing of closed-end mutual funds, and the Mehra-Prescott equity premium puzzle.

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References
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Book

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
Book

General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

TL;DR: In this article, a general theory of the rate of interest was proposed, and the subjective and objective factors of the propensity to consume and the multiplier were considered, as well as the psychological and business incentives to invest.
Journal ArticleDOI

Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading

Albert S. Kyle
- 01 Nov 1985 - 
Journal ArticleDOI

The behavior of stock market prices