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Journal ArticleDOI

Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy

01 Feb 2005-Journal of Political Economy (The University of Chicago Press)-Vol. 113, Iss: 1, pp 1-45
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities that accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output, and the key features of their model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy.
Abstract: We present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities that accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features, the most important are staggered wage contracts that have an average duration of three quarters and variable capital utilization.

Summary (1 min read)

Introduction

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Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic
Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
By: Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin
Eichenbaum and Charles L. Evans
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
WP 2001-08

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, the authors estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macroeconomic time series, incorporating many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks.
Abstract: Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross-correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the "Great Moderation"?

3,155 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the US economy is proposed, which incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions: sticky nominal price and wage setting, habit formation in consumption, investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilisation and fixed costs in production.
Abstract: We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the US economy. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions: sticky nominal price and wage setting, habit formation in consumption, investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilisation and fixed costs in production. It also contains many types of shocks including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, the relative importance of the various frictions and shocks in explaining the US business cycle are empirically investigated. We also show that this model is able to outperform standard VAR and BVAR models in out-of-sample prediction.

3,115 citations

ReportDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a model with a time-varying second moment is proposed to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in aggregate output and employment.
Abstract: Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil-price shock, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This paper offers a structural framework to analyze the impact of these uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time-varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using firm-level data. The parameterized model is then used to simulate a macro uncertainty shock, which produces a rapid drop and rebound in aggregate output and employment. This occurs because higher uncertainty causes firms to temporarily pause their investment and hiring. Productivity growth also falls because this pause in activity freezes reallocation across units. In the medium term the increased volatility from the shock induces an overshoot in output, employment, and productivity. Thus, uncertainty shocks generate short sharp recessions and recoveries. This simulated impact of an uncertainty shock is compared to vector autoregression estimations on actual data, showing a good match in both magnitude and timing. The paper also jointly estimates labor and capital adjustment costs (both convex and nonconvex). Ignoring capital adjustment costs is shown to lead to substantial bias, while ignoring labor adjustment costs does not.

2,256 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors developed a quantitative monetary DSGE model with financial intermediaries that face endogenously determined balance sheet constraints and used the model to evaluate the effects of the central bank using unconventional monetary policy to combat a simulated financial crisis.

2,158 citations

Book ChapterDOI
TL;DR: The authors developed a canonical framework to think about credit market frictions and aggregate economic activity in the context of the current crisis, and used the framework to address two issues in particular: first, how disruptions in financial intermediation can induce a crisis that affects real activity; and second, how various credit market interventions by the central bank and the Treasury of the type we have seen recently, might work to mitigate the crisis.
Abstract: We develop a canonical framework to think about credit market frictions and aggregate economic activity in the context of the current crisis. We use the framework to address two issues in particular: first, how disruptions in financial intermediation can induce a crisis that affects real activity; and second, how various credit market interventions by the central bank and the Treasury of the type we have seen recently, might work to mitigate the crisis. We make use of earlier literature to develop our framework and characterize how very recent literature is incorporating insights from the crisis.

1,900 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a model of staggered prices along the lines of Phelps (1978) and Taylor (1979, 1980), but utilizing an analytically more tractable price-setting technology.

8,580 citations

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1995
TL;DR: There is wide agreement about the major goals of economic policy: high employment, stable prices, and rapid growth as discussed by the authors.There is less agreement that these goals are mutually compatible or, among those who regard them as incompatible, about the terms at which they can and should be substituted for one another.
Abstract: There is wide agreement about the major goals of economic policy: high employment, stable prices, and rapid growth. There is less agreement that these goals are mutually compatible or, among those who regard them as incompatible, about the terms at which they can and should be substituted for one another. There is least agreement about the role that various instruments of policy can and should play in achieving the several goals.

5,289 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In contrast to conventional wisdom, this paper showed that gains from commitment may emerge even if the central bank is not trying to inadvisedly push output above its natural level, and also considered the implications of frictions such as imperfect information.
Abstract: The paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making a credible commitment to fight inflation. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that gains from commitment may emerge even if the central bank is not trying to inadvisedly push output above its natural level. We also consider the implications of frictions such as imperfect information.

3,990 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article defined investment as the act of incurring an immediate cost in the expectation of future rewards, i.e., the payments it must make to extract itself from contractual commitments, including severance payments to labor, are the initial expenditure, and the prospective reward is the reduction in future losses.
Abstract: Economics defines investment as the act of incurring an immediate cost in the expectation of future rewards. Firms that construct plants and install equipment, merchants who lay in a stock of goods for sale, and persons who spend time on vocational education are all investors in this sense. Somewhat less obviously, a firm that shuts down a loss-making plant is also \"investing\": the payments it must make to extract itself from contractual commitments, including severance payments to labor, are the initial expenditure, and the prospective reward is the reduction in future losses.

3,648 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: The authors reviewed recent research that grapples with the question: What happens after an exogenous shock to monetary policy? They argue that this question is interesting because it lies at the center of a particular approach to assessing the empirical plausibility of structural economic models that can be used to think about systematic changes in monetary policy institutions and rules.
Abstract: This paper reviews recent research that grapples with the question: What happens after an exogenous shock to monetary policy? We argue that this question is interesting because it lies at the center of a particular approach to assessing the empirical plausibility of structural economic models that can be used to think about systematic changes in monetary policy institutions and rules. The literature has not yet converged on a particular set of assumptions for identifying the effects of an exogenous shock to monetary policy. Nevertheless, there is considerable agreement about the qualitative effects of a monetary policy shock in the sense that inference is robust across a large subset of the identification schemes that have been considered in the literature. We document the nature of this agreement as it pertains to key economic aggregates.

2,803 citations