Novel application of adaptive swarm intelligence techniques coupled with adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system in predicting photovoltaic power

TLDR: The newly constructed ANFIS-APSO outperformed the standard ANFis-PSO model including other hybrid models, and hence has very potential to be a new alternative to assist engineers for predicting the PV power of solar systems at short- and long-time horizons.

Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power prediction is necessary for future development of the micro-grids projects and the economic dispatch sector. This study investigates the potential of using a novel hybrid approach of adaptive swarm intelligence techniques and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in estimating the PV power of a solar system at different time horizons, from 0 to 24 h. The developed approach is an integration of ANFIS and particle swarm optimization (PSO) with adaptive and time-varying acceleration coefficients, i.e., ANFIS-APSO (ANFIS-PSO with adaptive acceleration coefficients) and ANFIS-IPSO (ANFIS-PSO with time-varying acceleration coefficients), were developed. The performance of the proposed models was compared with other hybrid ANFIS models, namely ANFIS-PSO (ANFIS coupled with PSO), ANFIS-BBO (ANFIS coupled with biogeography-based optimization), ANFIS-GA (ANFIS coupled with genetic algorithm), and ANFIS-GWO (ANFIS coupled with grey wolf optimization). For this purpose, the climatic variables and historical PV power data of a 960 kWP grid-connected PV system in the south of Italy were used to design and evaluate the models. Several statistical analyses were implemented to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed models and assess the impact of variables that affects the PV power values. The experimental results show that the proposed ANFIS-APSO attained the most accurate prediction of the PV power with R2 = 0.835 and 0.657, RMSE = 0.088 kW and 0.081 kW, and MAE = 0.077 kW and 0.079 kW in the testing phase at time horizons 12 h and 24 h, respectively. Based on the obtained results, the newly constructed ANFIS-APSO outperformed the standard ANFIS-PSO model including other hybrid models, and hence very potential to be a new alternative to assist engineers for predicting the PV power of solar systems at short- and long-time horizons.