Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation
01 Apr 1993-Vol. 140, Iss: 2, pp 107-113
TL;DR: An algorithm, the bootstrap filter, is proposed for implementing recursive Bayesian filters, represented as a set of random samples, which are updated and propagated by the algorithm.
Abstract: An algorithm, the bootstrap filter, is proposed for implementing recursive Bayesian filters. The required density of the state vector is represented as a set of random samples, which are updated and propagated by the algorithm. The method is not restricted by assumptions of linear- ity or Gaussian noise: it may be applied to any state transition or measurement model. A simula- tion example of the bearings only tracking problem is presented. This simulation includes schemes for improving the efficiency of the basic algorithm. For this example, the performance of the bootstrap filter is greatly superior to the standard extended Kalman filter.
Citations
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Book•
01 Jan 1997TL;DR: A general framework for using Monte Carlo methods in dynamic systems and a general use of Rao-Blackwellization is proposed to improve performance and to compare different Monte Carlo procedures.
Abstract: We provide a general framework for using Monte Carlo methods in dynamic systems and discuss its wide applications. Under this framework, several currently available techniques are studied and generalized to accommodate more complex features. All of these methods are partial combinations of three ingredients: importance sampling and resampling, rejection sampling, and Markov chain iterations. We provide guidelines on how they should be used and under what circumstance each method is most suitable. Through the analysis of differences and connections, we consolidate these methods into a generic algorithm by combining desirable features. In addition, we propose a general use of Rao-Blackwellization to improve performance. Examples from econometrics and engineering are presented to demonstrate the importance of Rao–Blackwellization and to compare different Monte Carlo procedures.
2,150 citations
Book•
08 Oct 2001
TL;DR: This book takes a nontraditional nonlinear approach and reflects the fact that most practical applications are nonlinear.
Abstract: From the Publisher:
Kalman filtering is a well-established topic in the field of control and signal processing and represents by far the most refined method for the design of neural networks. This book takes a nontraditional nonlinear approach and reflects the fact that most practical applications are nonlinear. The book deals with important applications in such fields as control, financial forecasting, and idle speed control.
1,960 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models, and a highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximate offset mixture model, followed by an importance reweighting procedure.
Abstract: In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offset mixture model, followed by an importance reweighting procedure. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulation-based methods for filtering, likelihood evaluation and model failure diagnostics. The issue of model choice using non-nested likelihood ratios and Bayes factors is also investigated. These methods are used to compare the fit of stochastic volatility and GARCH models. All the procedures are illustrated in detail.
1,892 citations
TL;DR: It is shown here how it is possible to build efficient high dimensional proposal distributions by using sequential Monte Carlo methods, which allows not only to improve over standard Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes but also to make Bayesian inference feasible for a large class of statistical models where this was not previously so.
Abstract: Summary. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods have emerged as the two main tools to sample from high dimensional probability distributions. Although asymptotic convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms is ensured under weak assumptions, the performance of these algorithms is unreliable when the proposal distributions that are used to explore the space are poorly chosen and/or if highly correlated variables are updated independently. We show here how it is possible to build efficient high dimensional proposal distributions by using sequential Monte Carlo methods. This allows us not only to improve over standard Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes but also to make Bayesian inference feasible for a large class of statistical models where this was not previously so. We demonstrate these algorithms on a non-linear state space model and a Levy-driven stochastic volatility model.
1,869 citations
Book Chapter•
01 Jan 2008TL;DR: A complete, up-to-date survey of particle filtering methods as of 2008, including basic and advanced particle methods for filtering as well as smoothing.
Abstract: Optimal estimation problems for non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models do not typically admit analytic solutions. Since their introduction in 1993, particle filtering methods have become a very popular class of algorithms to solve these estimation problems numerically in an online manner, i.e. recursively as observations become available, and are now routinely used in fields as diverse as computer vision, econometrics, robotics and navigation. The objective of this tutorial is to provide a complete, up-to-date survey of this field as of 2008. Basic and advanced particle methods for filtering as well as smoothing are presented.
1,860 citations
References
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01 Jan 1986
TL;DR: The Kernel Method for Multivariate Data: Three Important Methods and Density Estimation in Action.
Abstract: Introduction. Survey of Existing Methods. The Kernel Method for Univariate Data. The Kernel Method for Multivariate Data. Three Important Methods. Density Estimation in Action.
15,499 citations
Book•
14 Mar 1970
TL;DR: In this paper, a unified treatment of linear and nonlinear filtering theory for engineers is presented, with sufficient emphasis on applications to enable the reader to use the theory for engineering problems.
Abstract: This book presents a unified treatment of linear and nonlinear filtering theory for engineers, with sufficient emphasis on applications to enable the reader to use the theory. The need for this book is twofold. First, although linear estimation theory is relatively well known, it is largely scattered in the journal literature and has not been collected in a single source. Second, available literature on the continuous nonlinear theory is quite esoteric and controversial, and thus inaccessible to engineers uninitiated in measure theory and stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, it is not clear from the available literature whether the nonlinear theory can be applied to practical engineering problems. In attempting to fill the stated needs, the author has retained as much mathematical rigor as he felt was consistent with the prime objective" to explain the theory to engineers. Thus, the author has avoided measure theory in this book by using mean square convergence, on the premise that everyone knows how to average. As a result, the author only requires of the reader background in advanced calculus, theory of ordinary differential equations, and matrix analysis.
6,539 citations
TL;DR: In this paper an approximation that permits the explicit calculation of the a posteriori density from the Bayesian recursion relations is discussed and applied to the solution of the nonlinear filtering problem.
Abstract: Knowledge of the probability density function of the state conditioned on all available measurement data provides the most complete possible description of the state, and from this density any of the common types of estimates (e.g., minimum variance or maximum a posteriori) can be determined. Except in the linear Gaussian case, it is extremely difficult to determine this density function. In this paper an approximation that permits the explicit calculation of the a posteriori density from the Bayesian recursion relations is discussed and applied to the solution of the nonlinear filtering problem. In particular, it is noted that a weighted sum of Gaussian probability density functions can be used to approximate arbitrarily closely another density function. This representation provides the basis for procedure that is developed and discussed.
1,267 citations
1,214 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, a sampling-resampling perspective on Bayesian inference is presented, which has both pedagogic appeal and suggests easily implemented calculation strategies, such as sampling-based methods.
Abstract: Even to the initiated, statistical calculations based on Bayes's Theorem can be daunting because of the numerical integrations required in all but the simplest applications. Moreover, from a teaching perspective, introductions to Bayesian statistics—if they are given at all—are circumscribed by these apparent calculational difficulties. Here we offer a straightforward sampling-resampling perspective on Bayesian inference, which has both pedagogic appeal and suggests easily implemented calculation strategies.
861 citations