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Journal ArticleDOI

On the creation of future probabilistic design weather years from UKCP09

01 May 2011-Building Services Engineering Research and Technology (SAGE Publications)-Vol. 32, Iss: 2, pp 127-142
TL;DR: In this article, a method for the creation of future probabilistic reference years for use within thermal models is discussed, and a comparison is made with the current set of future weather years based on the UKCIP.
Abstract: Weather data are used extensively by building scientists and engineers to study the performance of their designs, help compare design alternatives and ensure compliance with building regulations. Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practising engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the commissioning client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the publication of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) such data can be created for future years up to 2080 and for various probabilistic projections of climate change by the use of a weather generator. Here, we discuss a method for the creation of future probabilistic reference years for use within thermal models. In addition, a comparison is made with the current set of future weather years based on the UKCIP...
Citations
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01 Dec 2009
TL;DR: It is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), and the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppsmv CO2e.
Abstract: The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.

305 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented the results of a computational study on the energy consumption and related CO2 emissions for heating and cooling of an office building within the Urban Heat Island of London, currently and in the future.

291 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The data sources of uncertainty in building performance analysis are described to provide a firm foundation for specifying variations of uncertainty factors affecting building energy, and several applications of uncertainty analysis in building energy assessment are discussed.
Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in building energy assessment has become an active research field because a number of factors influencing energy use in buildings are inherently uncertain. This paper provides a systematic review on the latest research progress of uncertainty analysis in building energy assessment from four perspectives: uncertainty data sources, forward and inverse methods, application of uncertainty analysis, and available software. First, this paper describes the data sources of uncertainty in building performance analysis to provide a firm foundation for specifying variations of uncertainty factors affecting building energy. The next two sections focus on the forward and inverse methods. Forward uncertainty analysis propagates input uncertainty through building energy models to obtain variations of energy use, whereas inverse uncertainty analysis infers unknown input factors through building energy models based on energy data and prior information. For forward analysis, three types of approaches (Monte Carlo, non-sampling, and non-probabilistic) are discussed to provide sufficient choices of uncertainty methods depending on the purpose and specific application of a building project. For inverse analysis, recent research has concentrated more on Bayesian computation because Bayesian inverse methods can make full use of prior information on unknown variables. Fourth, several applications of uncertainty analysis in building energy assessment are discussed, including building stock analysis, HVAC system sizing, variations of sensitivity indicators, and optimization under uncertainty. Moreover, the software for uncertainty analysis is described to provide flexible computational environments for implementing uncertainty methods described in this review. This paper concludes with the trends and recommendations for further research to provide more convenient and robust uncertainty analysis of building energy. Uncertainty analysis has been ready to become the mainstream approach in building energy assessment although a number of issues still need to be addressed.

266 citations


Cites background from "On the creation of future probabili..."

  • ...A large number of studies have been conducted on assessing the impact and adaptation to climate change in buildings [15, 16, 60-62]....

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  • ...Since a large number of hourly weather files can be generated from UKCP09, further developments have concentrated on finding ways to efficiently implement the UKCP09 in building energy analysis [61, 62]....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an approach is presented for "morphing" existing EnergyPlus/ESP-r Weather (EPW) data with UK Met Office Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) predictions for a "medium-high" emissions scenario (A2).

228 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the use of the downscaling method known as "morphing" to generate weather data files and assessed the impact of using these weather files on the energy performance of an actual NZEB.

196 citations

References
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Book
10 Sep 2007
TL;DR: This new edition incorporates more than 400 Numerical Recipes routines, many of them new or upgraded, and adopts an object-oriented style particularly suited to scientific applications.
Abstract: Co-authored by four leading scientists from academia and industry, Numerical Recipes Third Edition starts with basic mathematics and computer science and proceeds to complete, working routines. Widely recognized as the most comprehensive, accessible and practical basis for scientific computing, this new edition incorporates more than 400 Numerical Recipes routines, many of them new or upgraded. The executable C++ code, now printed in color for easy reading, adopts an object-oriented style particularly suited to scientific applications. The whole book is presented in the informal, easy-to-read style that made earlier editions so popular. Please visit www.nr.com or www.cambridge.org/us/numericalrecipes for more details. New key features: 2 new chapters, 25 new sections, 25% longer than Second Edition Thorough upgrades throughout the text Over 100 completely new routines and upgrades of many more. New Classification and Inference chapter, including Gaussian mixture models, HMMs, hierarchical clustering, Support Vector MachinesNew Computational Geometry chapter covers KD trees, quad- and octrees, Delaunay triangulation, and algorithms for lines, polygons, triangles, and spheres New sections include interior point methods for linear programming, Monte Carlo Markov Chains, spectral and pseudospectral methods for PDEs, and many new statistical distributions An expanded treatment of ODEs with completely new routines Plus comprehensive coverage of linear algebra, interpolation, special functions, random numbers, nonlinear sets of equations, optimization, eigensystems, Fourier methods and wavelets, statistical tests, ODEs and PDEs, integral equations, and inverse theory And much, much more! Visit the authors' web site for information about electronic subscriptions www.nr.com/aboutNR3book.html

4,130 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a method called morphing to produce design weather data for building thermal simulations that accounts for future changes to climate by combining present-day observed weather data with results from climate models.
Abstract: We develop a method, here called ‘morphing’, to produce design weather data for building thermal simulations that accounts for future changes to climate. Morphing combines present-day observed weather data with results from climate models. The procedure yields weather time series that encapsulate the average weather conditions of future climate scenarios, whilst preserving realistic weather sequences. In this sense the method ‘downscales’ coarse resolution climate model predictions to the fine spatial and temporal resolutions required for building thermal simulations. The morphing procedure is illustrated by application to CIBSE design weather years and climate change scenarios for the UK. Heating degree days calculated from the weather series morphed to future climates show a marked reduction compared to present day, by an amount that agrees well with results calculated directly from the climate model. This agreement gives confidence that the morphing technique faithfully transforms the weather sequences...

499 citations