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Journal ArticleDOI

On the looting of nations

TL;DR: The authors developed a dynamic discrete choice model of an unchecked ruler making decisions regarding the development of a resource rich country, and showed that unstructured lending from international credit markets can create incentives to loot the country; and an enhanced likelihood of looting causes greater political instability, and diminishes growth.
Abstract: We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of an unchecked ruler making decisions regarding the development of a resource rich country. Resources serve as collateral and facilitate the acquisition of loans. The ruler chooses either to stay in power while facing the risk of being ousted, or loot the country’s riches by liquefying the resources through lending. We show that unstructured lending from international credit markets can create incentives to loot the country; and an enhanced likelihood of looting causes greater political instability, and diminishes growth. Using a treatment effects model, we find evidence that supports our predictions.

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Citations
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01 Jan 1906

578 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors evaluated the impact of major natural resource discoveries since 1950 on GDP per capita using panel fixed-effects estimation and resource discoveries in countries that were not previously resource-rich as a plausibly exogenous source of variation.

212 citations


Cites background from "On the looting of nations"

  • ...Another form treats institutions as exogenous to resource wealth, and the interaction between resources and institutions explains the divergent outcomes of resource-rich countries (Robinson et al 2006, Mehlum et al 2006, Sarr et al 2011)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article examined the impact of military expenditure on economic growth on a large balanced panel, using an exogenous growth model and dynamic panel data methods for 106 countries over the period 1988-2010.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on economic growth on a large balanced panel, using an exogenous growth model and dynamic panel data methods for 106 countries over the period 1988–2010 A major focus of the paper is to consider the possibility group heterogeneity and non-linearity Having estimated the model for all of the countries in the panel and finding that military burden has a negative effect on growth in the short and long run, the panel is broken down into various groupings based upon a range of potentially relevant factors, and the robustness of the results is evaluated The factors considered are different levels of income, conflict experience, natural resources abundance, openness and aid The estimates for the different groups are remarkably consistent with those for the whole panel, providing strong support for the argument that military spending has adverse effects on growth There are, however, some intriguing results that suggest that for certain types of countries

115 citations

01 Mar 2008
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a method to solve the problem of the lack of resources in the South Korean market, by using the concept of "social media" and "social networks".
Abstract: 본 논문은 자원부국들의 천연자원 수출이 각기 다른 경제적 영향을 보이는 이유에 대해 연구하였다. 가령 라틴아메리카의 경우 다른 자원부국들과는 달리 저조한 경제성장을 보였다. 이에 대해 선행연구에서는 천연자원의 풍요가 오히려 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 준다고 논증한 바 있다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 1인당 국민소득이 어느 수준 이상일 경우 천연자원 수출과 경제성장 간의 역의 상관관계가 존재하지 않음을 보이고 있다. 분석에 따르면, 1인당 국민소득이 낮은 라틴아메리카 국가들의 경우 풍부한 천연자원이 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 반면, 1인당 국민소득이 높은 선진국의 경우 이러한 음의 효과가 나타나지 않았다. 이같이 천연자원 수출이 자원부국들 간 서로 다른 영향을 보인 이유는, 정부의 효율성, 법치, 부패통제 등 ‘제도의 질’이 낮은 라틴아메리카의 경우 천연자원 수출로 얻은 자원을 비효율적으로 활용하여 인적·물적 자원을 축적하지 못했으며, 이로 인해 궁극적으로 저조한 경제성장을 이루게 되었다는 데 있다.

96 citations

References
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Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used a new comparative data set for 93 countries to analyze the robustness of the relationship between openness and TFP growth, and found that more open countries have indeed experienced faster productivity growth.
Abstract: For over a century social analysts have debated the connection between trade policy and economic performance. This controversy continues today, even as the world is experiencing an unprecedented period of trade liberalization, and in spite of numerous empirical studies that claim to have found a positive effect of openness on growth. Two issues have been at the core of these controversies: first, until recently theoretical models had been unable to link trade policy to faster equilibrium growth. And second, the empirical literature on the subject has been affected by serious data problems. In this paper I use a new comparative data set for 93 countries to analyze the robustness of the relationship between openness and TFP growth. I use nine alternative indexes of trade policy to investigate whether the evidence supports the view that, with other things given, TFP growth is faster in more open economies. The regressions reported here are robust to the use of openness indicator, estimation technique, time period and functional form, and suggest that more open countries have indeed experienced faster productivity growth. Although the use of instrumental variables goes a long way towards dealing with endogeneity, issues related to causality are still somewhat open, and will require time series analyses to be adequately addressed.

2,042 citations


"On the looting of nations" refers background in this paper

  • ...…do so only in the least risky environments, where political turnover is most unlikely, then the marginal impact of capital inflows on looting and growth could be biased downward.21 20Evidence on the relationship between trade and growth is generally mixed (cf. Yanikaya 2003; and Edwards 1998)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors claim that the main reason for diverging experiences is differences in the quality of institutions, and they test this theory building on Sachs and Warner's influential works on the resource curse.
Abstract: Countries rich in natural resources constitute both growth losers and growth winners. We claim that the main reason for these diverging experiences is differences in the quality of institutions. More natural resources push aggregate income down, when institutions are grabber friendly, while more resources raise income, when institutions are producer friendly. We test this theory building on Sachs and Warner's influential works on the resource curse. Our main hypothesis – that institutions are decisive for the resource curse – is confirmed. Our results contrast the claims of Sachs and Warner that institutions do not play a role.

1,917 citations


"On the looting of nations" refers background in this paper

  • ...It also expands on Mehlum et al. (2006) who found evidence consistent with Dutch Disease when institutional quality was poor.19 We find that even in weak institutional environments foreign lending may be 17Adding five further lags of the looting indicator to the growth equation suggests another…...

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  • ...…quality is one of the main drivers of economic development in general (Acemoglu et al. 2001; Rodrik et al. 2004), and it has been argued that the fates of resource-rich economies in particular are influenced by the quality of their institutions (Robinson et al. 2006; Mehlum et al. 2006)....

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  • ...8Sachs and Warner (1997) and Mehlum et al. (2006) look at average growth over a 25-year period....

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  • ...19Both Mehlum et al. (2006), and Corden and Neary (1982) used the value of resource exports relative to GDP as a proxy for resource dependence....

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  • ...In a related vein, another alternative hypothesis is that resource rents are grabbed when poor institutions reign (Mehlum et al. 2006)....

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Posted Content
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of inflation on economic performance were analyzed for around 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 and it was shown that the long-term effects on standards of living are substantial.
Abstract: Data for around 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 are used to assess the effects of inflation on economic performance. If a number of country characteristics are held constant, then regression results indicate that the impact effects from an increase in average inflation by 10 percentage points per year are a reduction of the growth rate of real per capita GDP by 0.2-0.3 percentage points per year and a decrease in the ratio of investment to GDP by 0.4-0.6 percentage points. Since the statistical procedures use plausible instruments for inflation, there is some reason to believe that these relations reflect causal influences from inflation to growth and investment. However, statistically significant results emerge only when high- inflation experiences are included in the sample. Although the adverse influence of inflation on growth looks small, the long-term effects on standards of living are substantial. For example, a shift in monetary policy that raises the long-term average inflation rate by 10 percentage points per year is estimated to lower the level of real GDP after 30 years by 4-7%, more than enough to justify a strong interest in price stability.

1,883 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a simple, regenerative, optimal stopping model of bus-engine replacement is proposed to describe the behavior of Harold Zurcher, superintendent of maintenance at the Madison (Wisconsin) Metropolitan Bus Company.
Abstract: This paper formulates a simple, regenerative, optimal-stopping model of bus-engine replacement to describe the behavior of Harold Zurcher, superintendent of maintenance at the Madison (Wisconsin) Metropolitan Bus Company. Admittedly, few people are likely to take particular interest in Harold Zurcher and bus engine replacement per se. The author focuses on a specific individual and capital good because it provides a simple, concrete framework to illustrate two ideas: (1) a "bottom-up" approach for modeling replacement investment and (2) a "nested fixed point" algorithm for estimating dynamic programming models of discrete choice.

1,815 citations


"On the looting of nations" refers background in this paper

  • ...0; the interaction between resources and lending F(25,43) = 2....

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  • ...24F-tests for the excluded instruments are as follows: in the resource stock equation F(25,43) = 1....

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Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify a channel for an inverse relationship between income inequality and growth, and measure socio-political instability with indices which capture the occurrence of more or less violent phenomena of political unrest.
Abstract: This paper successfully tests on a sample of 71 countries for the period 1960–85 the following hypotheses. Income inequality, by fuelling social discontent, increases sociopolitical instability. The latter, by creating uncertainty in the politico-economic environment, reduces investment. As a consequence, income inequality and investment are inversely related. Since investment is a primary engine of growth, this paper identifies a channel for an inverse relationship between income inequality and growth. We measure socio-political instability with indices which capture the occurrence of more or less violent phenomena of political unrest and we test our hypotheses by estimating a two-equation model in which the endogenous variables are investment and an index of socio-political instability. Our results are robust to sensitivity analysis on the specification of the model and the measure of political instability, and are unchanged when the model is estimated using robust regression techniques.

1,703 citations