Posted Content•
Overconfidence and Early-life Experiences: The Impact of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies
TL;DR: This article found that managers who believe that their firm is undervalued view external financing as overpriced, especially equity, and use less external finance and, conditional on accessing risky capital, issue less equity than their peers.
Abstract: We show that measurable managerial characteristics have significant explanatory power for corporate financing decisions beyond traditional capital-structure determinants First, managers who believe that their firm is undervalued view external financing as overpriced, especially equity Such overconfident managers use less external finance and, conditional on accessing risky capital, issue less equity than their peers Second, CEOs with Depression experience are averse to debt and lean excessively on internal finance Third, CEOs with military experience pursue more aggressive policies, including heightened leverage Complementary measures of CEO traits based on press portrayals confirm the results
Citations
More filters
992 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed that individuals overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes and modifies existing adaptive learning models to allow for age-dependent updating of expectations in response to inflation surprises.
Abstract: How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that individuals overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes. This approach modifies existing adaptive learning models to allow for age-dependent updating of expectations in response to inflation surprises. Young individuals update their expectations more strongly than older individuals since recent experiences account for a greater share of their accumulated lifetime history. We find support for these predictions using 57 years of microdata on inflation expectations from the Reuters/Michigan Survey of Consumers. Differences in experiences strongly predict differences in expectations, including the substantial disagreement between young and old individuals in periods of highly volatile inflation, such as the 1970s. It also explains household borrowing and lending behavior, including the choice of mortgages. JEL Codes: E03, G02, D03, E31, E37, D84, D83, D14.
697 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed analysis of 49 firms subject to AAERs suggests that approximately one-quarter of the misstatements meet the legal standards of intent, while the remaining three quarters reflect an optimistic bias that is not necessarily intentional.
Abstract: A detailed analysis of 49 firms subject to AAERs suggests that approximately one-quarter of the misstatements meet the legal standards of intent. In the remaining three quarters, the initial misstatement reflects an optimistic bias that is not necessarily intentional. Because of the bias, however, in subsequent periods these firms are more likely to be in a position in which they are compelled to intentionally misstate earnings. Overconfident executives are more likely to exhibit an optimistic bias and thus are more likely to start down a slippery slope of growing intentional misstatements. Evidence from a high-tech sample and a larger and more general sample support the overconfidence explanation for this path to misstatements and AAERs.
625 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the impact of gender quotas for corporate board seats on corporate decisions and found that affected firms undertook fewer workforce reductions than comparison firms, increasing relative labor costs and employment levels and reducing short-term profits.
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of gender quotas for corporate board seats on corporate decisions. We examine the introduction of Norway’s 2006 quota, comparing affected firms to other Nordic companies, public and private, that were unaffected by the rule. We find that affected firms undertook fewer workforce reductions than comparison firms, increasing relative labor costs and employment levels and reducing short-term profits. The effects are strongest among firms without female board members beforehand and are present even for boards with older and more experienced members afterward. The boards appear to be affecting corporate strategy in part by selecting likeminded executives.
579 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors extend the literature on how managerial traits relate to corporate choices by documenting that firms run by female CEOs have lower leverage, less volatile earnings, and a higher chance of survival than otherwise similar firms running by male CEOs, and that transitions from male to female CEOs are associated with economically and statistically significant reductions in corporate risk-taking.
Abstract: We extend the literature on how managerial traits relate to corporate choices by documenting that firms run by female CEOs have lower leverage, less volatile earnings, and a higher chance of survival than otherwise similar firms run by male CEOs. Additionally, transitions from male to female CEOs (or vice-versa) are associated with economically and statistically significant reductions (increases) in corporate risk-taking. The results are robust to controlling for the endogenous matching between firms and CEOs using a variety of econometric techniques. We further document that this risk-avoidance behavior appears to lead to distortions in the capital allocation process. These results potentially have important macroeconomic implications for long-term economic growth.
565 citations
References
More filters
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of financial structure on market valuations has been investigated and a theory of investment of the firm under conditions of uncertainty has been developed for the cost-of-capital problem.
Abstract: The potential advantages of the market-value approach have long been appreciated; yet analytical results have been meager. What appears to be keeping this line of development from achieving its promise is largely the lack of an adequate theory of the effect of financial structure on market valuations, and of how these effects can be inferred from objective market data. It is with the development of such a theory and of its implications for the cost-of-capital problem that we shall be concerned in this paper. Our procedure will be to develop in Section I the basic theory itself and to give some brief account of its empirical relevance. In Section II we show how the theory can be used to answer the cost-of-capital questions and how it permits us to develop a theory of investment of the firm under conditions of uncertainty. Throughout these sections the approach is essentially a partial-equilibrium one focusing on the firm and "industry". Accordingly, the "prices" of certain income streams will be treated as constant and given from outside the model, just as in the standard Marshallian analysis of the firm and industry the prices of all inputs and of all other products are taken as given. We have chosen to focus at this level rather than on the economy as a whole because it is at firm and the industry that the interests of the various specialists concerned with the cost-of-capital problem come most closely together. Although the emphasis has thus been placed on partial-equilibrium analysis, the results obtained also provide the essential building block for a general equilibrium model which shows how those prices which are here taken as given, are themselves determined. For reasons of space, however, and because the material is of interest in its own right, the presentation of the general equilibrium model which rounds out the analysis must be deferred to a subsequent paper.
15,342 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the determinants of capital structure choice by analyzing the financing decisions of public firms in the major industrialized countries and find that factors identified by previous studies as important in determining the cross-section of the capital structure in the U.S. affect firm leverage in other countries as well.
Abstract: We investigate the determinants of capital structure choice by analyzing the financing decisions of public firms in the major industrialized countries. At an aggregate level, firm leverage is fairly similar across the G-7 countries. We find that factors identified by previous studies as important in determining the cross- section of capital structure in the U.S. affect firm leverage in other countries as well. However, a deeper examination of the U.S. and foreign evidence suggests that the theoretical underpinnings of the observed correlations are still largely unresolved.
5,935 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events and found that degree of desirability, perceived probability, personal experience, perceived controllability, and stereotype saliency would influence the amount of optimistic bias evoked by different events.
Abstract: Two studies investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events. In Study 1, 258 college students estimated how much their own chances of experiencing 42 events differed from the chances of their classmates. Overall, they rated their own chances to be above average for positive events and below average for negative events, ps<.001. Cognitive and motivational considerations led to predictions that degree of desirability, perceived probability, personal experience, perceived controllability, and stereotype salience would influence the amount of optimistic bias evoked by different events. All predictions were supported, although the pattern of effects differed for positive and negative events. Study 2 tested the idea that people are unrealistically optimistic because they focus on factors that improve their own chances of achieving desirable outcomes and fail to realize that others may have just as many factors in their favor. Students listed the factors that they thought influenced their own chances of experiencing eight future events. When such lists were read by a second group of students, the amount of unrealistic optimism shown by this second group for the same eight events decreased significantly, although it was not eliminated.
4,650 citations
TL;DR: The hubris hypothesis is advanced as an explanation of corporate takeovers by Jensen and Ruback as mentioned in this paper, who argued that the evidence supports the hubris hypotheses as much as it supports other explanations such as taxes, synergy, and inefficient target management.
Abstract: Despite many excellent research papers, we still do not fully understand the motives behind mergers and tender offers or whether they bring an increase in aggregate market value. In their comprehensive review article (from which the above quote is taken), Jensen and Ruback (1983) summarize the empirical work presented in over 40 The hubris hypothesis is advanced as an explanation of corporate takeovers. Hubris on the part of individual decision makers in bidding firms can explain why bids are made even when a valuation above the current market price represents a positive valuation error. Bidding firms infected by hubris simply pay too much for their targets. The empirical evidence in mergers and tender offers is reconsidered in the hubris context. It is argued that the evidence supports the hubris hypothesis as much as it supports other explanations such as taxes, synergy, and inefficient target management. * The earlier drafts of this paper elicited many comments. It is a pleasure to acknowledge the benefits derived from the generosity of so many colleagues. They corrected several conceptual and substantive errors in the previous draft, directed my attention to other results, and suggested other interpretations of the empirical phenomena. In general, they provided me with an invaluable tutorial on the subject of corporate takeovers. The present draft undoubtedly still contains errors and omissions, but this is due mainly to my inability to distill and convey the collective knowledge of the profession. Among those who helped were C. R. Alexander, Peter Bernstein, Thomas Copeland, Harry DeAngelo, Eugene Fama, Karen Farkas, Michael Firth, Mark Grinblatt, Gregg Jarrell, Bruce Lehmann, Paul Malatesta, Ronald Masulis, David Mayers, John McConnell, Merton Miller, Stephen Ross, Richard Ruback, Sheridan Titman, and, especially, Michael Jensen, Katherine Schipper, Walter A. Smith, Jr., and J. Fred Weston. I also benefited from the comments of the finance workshop participants at the University of Chicago, the University of Michigan, and Dartmouth College, and of the referees.
3,795 citations
[...]
TL;DR: Miller et al. as discussed by the authors presented a paper on the thirty-fiveth annual meeting of the American Finance Association, Atlantic City, New Jersey, September 16-18, 1976 (May, 1977), pp. 261-275.
Abstract: Debt and Taxes Author(s): Merton H. Miller Source: The Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, Atlantic City, New Jersey, September 16-18, 1976 (May, 1977), pp. 261-275 Published by: Blackwell Publishing for the American Finance Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2326758 Accessed: 10/09/2009 09:53
3,673 citations