Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles

TL;DR: A backcasting approach is used to identify critical policy decisions and measures to be taken before the implementation of AVs, so as to achieve a more desirable, attractive and high-quality city.

Abstract: The introduction of automated vehicles (AVs) is a virtual certainty. Much less certain is the timing of their introduction and how rapid the transition to full automation will be. Various governments are already working to facilitate this shift by, for example, amending and elaborating regulations to support the introduction of AVs, or supporting tests in different urban environments. Meanwhile, urban and regional planners and decision-makers are still grappling with the uncertainties and differing opinions about the possible impacts of AVs on land-use changes and location choices, particularly in relation to the space available for vehicles, both moving (i.e. roadspace) and stationary (i.e. parking space). This paper uses a backcasting approach to identify critical policy decisions and measures to be taken before the implementation of AVs, so as to achieve a more desirable, attractive and high-quality city. These policy measures primarily relate to the reuse and reallocation of parking and roadspace. Two strategic decisions are found to be essential to meet the major goals of sustainable and liveable cities: a clear commitment to a shared mobility and the delimitation of Core Attractive Mixed-use Spaces (CAMS). In order to deliver these desired urbanisation patterns, a set of three policy paths, involving eight policy packages, is proposed for the next 20–30 years. This article provides urban and regional decision-makers with examples of interventions that can be implemented beyond and during the implementation of AVs.

Summary

2.1. Automated vehicles: current status and timeline estimates

• 2014), most of the technological advances have taken place during the last decade.
• More and more cars equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) such as cruise control or automated parallel parking (i.e. level 1 and level 2 AV, according to SAE levels2) are currently in use.
• Because of the rapid technological development (as well as the desire of the AV industry to secure investment capital), many automobile companies claim that level 3 AVs could be commercialized by 2020–2025 (Hars, 2017).
• Accounts by Begg (2014) and Litman (2018) warn that the process could easily be slower than expected, as with other technological or transport revolutions in the past.

2.2. Potential impacts of AVs in urban form and land use

• Estimates of the potential implications of the implementation of AVs have increased rapidly in the academic literature over recent years, pointing to both optimistic and pessimistic valuations.
• Very few studies consider the consequences of this implementation on urban form and structure (Cavoli et al., 2017; González-González et al., 2018; Milakis et al., 2017b; Soteropoulos et al., 2018; Stead and Vaddadi, 2019), for which the key question is the dichotomy of density versus sprawl.
• According to Milakis et al. (2017b) and Soteropoulos et al. (2018), the potential reductions in public transport associated with SAV implementation will have a bearing in the value of time, the operating costs and whether governments allow vehicles circulating with a low number of passengers.
• Secondly, parking areas located outside the centre could accommodate around 97% of the daily parking demand (Zakharenko, 2016), given that AVs could pick up and drop off passengers at different points within the city and park far away when not needed (Begg, 2014).

3.2.1. Core values for the city of the future

• Over recent years, academic literature and urban policy have contained a great variety of new concepts for desirable urban development, mainly related with the traditional three dimensions of sustainability: social, economic and environmental.
• Similarly, Ortegón-Sánchez and Tyler (2016), Ratcliffe and Krawczyk (2011) and Williams (2014) have identified various dimensions of attractive and productive cities.
• International urban agendas have also introduced new priorities.
• Each of these will be directly affected by the arrival of autonomous vehicles and planning development decisions.

3.2.2. Goals for the city of the future

• After identifying the core city values, the major policy goals and targets to achieve the desirable city of tomorrow were developed by considering the likely AV impacts outlined in the previous section.
• It is decisive to face social, environmental, mobility and safety risks of AV implementation, such as sprawl intensification, unsustainable use of land and resources, and the increase in the number of circulating vehicles (PAVs or single-occupant SAVs).
• The implementation of a scalable public shared transportation system would minimise the risks associated with the substitution of inclusive massive public transportation systems by individual PAVs or single-occupant SAVs, or with the increase in the number of vehicles on roads, and the associated energy and land consumptions, potential accidents, and sprawl intensification.
• Ensuring inclusive public spaces, renaturing urban areas, improving facilities and their accessibility, increasing city centre’s attractiveness over peripheries, and avoiding segregation, also known as The main ambitions are.
• The creation of more cycling and walking paths, green areas, and needed urban facilities would also contribute to these goals.

3.3.1. Strategic and external elements

• Encouraging sharing is not enough (Clewlow and Mishra, 2017).
• Access would be restricted to certain areas within the city with the exception of emergency services, disabled or reduced mobility passengers.
• These restrictions would allow the development of more free, public, highquality and equipped spaces in those areas restricted to AVs, encouraging a healthy mobility and enhancing citizens’ quality of life.
• Similarly, the distribution of electricity could be a limiting factor for the location of charging stations.

3.3.2. Images of the future

• Additionally, parking lanes have been transformed into new shared lanes, gardens and parklets, thereby increasing the densification of the city centre and attracting a more diverse population in a vibrant and liveable city.
• The city faces electricity shortages to charge the enormous number of private AVs.
• Daily mobility needs are mainly serviced by PAVs, although these vehicles do not have access to all parts of the city, thereby encouraging walking or cycling in specific areas.

3.4.1. Inventory of policy measures

• Based on a review of the academic literature, international urban planning guidelines, and case studies, an inventory of policy measures which could contribute to the achievement of Image 2 – The liveable shared city was identified (Table 5).
• These measures were grouped into the four main types of policy instruments most commonly used in the literature (Banister et al., 2000, 2007; Givoni et al., 2013; Hood, 1983; UN, 2016): - Market-oriented policies: involve financial, fiscal and tax-revenue measures aimed at encouraging or discouraging one type of urban development or transport model above others.
• Including ordinances, norms, technical standards, government reforms, administrative mechanisms, aimed at establishing the desired typology of urban form, land use and mobility, also known as - Regulation-oriented policies.
• - Public infrastructures or services: referring to the provision of infrastructures and services such as public transport stations, cycle routes, parks, educational, medical, sports and cultural buildings and places.
• - Educational and awareness-oriented policies: their aim is to change societal attitudes and awareness about new development patterns and new mobility arrangements in order to increase public support for other a priori controversial policy measures.

3.4.2. Policy packages, paths and agenda

• The second step of policy setting was assembling measures into groups in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the policy actions.
• Then policy paths were created by combining some policy packages, or even packages with single measures (following Banister et al., 2000).
• The restriction imposed on both SAVs and conventional cars will have a threefold aim: to ensure safer, more liveable areas for citizens, pedestrians and cyclists, to avoid/reduce citizens’ inclination to use private cars by reducing their current, convenient unlimited access and to release welllocated parking spaces.
• Residential, working, services and commercial areas M1, also known as Mixed land uses.
• More spaces for walking and cycling lanes P3.

4. Conclusions

• Accordingly, the role of urban planning in the transition to the use of AVs has been emphasized in the literature, urging local governments and decision-makers to start preparing adaptive legal, urban and land use regulations to accommodate such a disruptive transportation mode (Papa and Ferreira, 2018).
• In such a context of long-term planning, backcasting approaches are essential to anticipate the type of planning measures that could make the most of potential benefits while eluding possible adverse outcomes (Stead and Banister, 2003) of new technologies or systems such as AVs.
• This type of inclusive and sustainable transportation system would promote a city renaissance, more citizen-centred than car-dependent, with a re-densification of the city centre.
• These measures were then assembled into three complementary and consecutive policy paths in relation to timeline estimates and major policy targets.

Figures

Table 1 Summary of contrasting implications of AVs’ uptake: shared vs private AVs.

Fig. 2. Policy packages and path agenda.

Fig. 1. Backcasting procedure used.

Table 2 Summary of core values of the city of tomorrow. Source: own work from Daffara (2011); EU (2016); Joffe and Smith (2016); Khan and Zaman (2018); Ortegón-Sánchez and Tyler (2016); Ratcliffe and Krawczyk (2011) and Williams (2014).

Frequently asked questions

Q1. What have the authors contributed in "Parking futures_ preparing european cities for the advent of automated vehicles" ?

This paper uses a backcasting approach to identify critical policy decisions and measures to be taken before the implementation of AVs, so as to achieve a more desirable, attractive and high-quality city. This article provides urban and regional decision-makers with examples of interventions that can be implemented beyond and during the implementation of AVs. 

Q2. What future works have the authors mentioned in the paper "Parking futures_ preparing european cities for the advent of automated vehicles" ?

Taking into account these strategic elements, four Images of the future were created ( Table 4 ). The images described below consider impact estimates derived from the literature and the effect of external factors in contrast with the goals and targets set for the future city. Among the four images of the future briefly presented above, only Image 2 ( The liveable shared city ), is considered worth pursuing, given its potential to accomplish a greater number of urban policy goals, and the fact that it is more desirable from the liveability, sustainability and social justice perspective.