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Journal ArticleDOI

Past Temperatures Directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet

09 Oct 1998-Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science)-Vol. 282, Iss: 5387, pp 268-271
TL;DR: A Monte Carlo inverse method has been used on the temperature profiles measured down through the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) borehole, at the summit of the Greenland ice Sheet, and the Dye 3 borehole 865 kilometers farther south, resulting in a 50, 000-year-long temperature history at GRIP and a 7000-year history at Dye3.
Abstract: A Monte Carlo inverse method has been used on the temperature profiles measured down through the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) borehole, at the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and the Dye 3 borehole 865 kilometers farther south. The result is a 50, 000-year-long temperature history at GRIP and a 7000-year history at Dye 3. The Last Glacial Maximum, the Climatic Optimum, the Medieval Warmth, the Little Ice Age, and a warm period at 1930 A.D. are resolved from the GRIP reconstruction with the amplitudes -23 kelvin, +2.5 kelvin, +1 kelvin, -1 kelvin, and +0.5 kelvin, respectively. The Dye 3 temperature is similar to the GRIP history but has an amplitude 1.5 times larger, indicating higher climatic variability there. The calculated terrestrial heat flow density from the GRIP inversion is 51.3 milliwatts per square meter.
Citations
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01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial-interglacial cycles.
Abstract: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.

5,469 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
03 Jun 1999-Nature
TL;DR: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial-interglacial cycles as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The recent completion of drilling at Vostok station in East Antarctica has allowed the extension of the ice record of atmospheric composition and climate to the past four glacial–interglacial cycles. The succession of changes through each climate cycle and termination was similar, and atmospheric and climate properties oscillated between stable bounds. Interglacial periods differed in temporal evolution and duration. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane correlate well with Antarctic air-temperature throughout the record. Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.

5,109 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
07 Dec 2001-Science
TL;DR: A solar forcing mechanism therefore may underlie at least the Holocene segment of the North Atlantic's “1500-year” cycle, potentially providing an additional mechanism for amplifying the solar signals and transmitting them globally.
Abstract: Surface winds and surface ocean hydrography in the subpolar North Atlantic appear to have been influenced by variations in solar output through the entire Holocene. The evidence comes from a close correlation between inferred changes in production rates of the cosmogenic nuclides carbon-14 and beryllium-10 and centennial to millennial time scale changes in proxies of drift ice measured in deep-sea sediment cores. A solar forcing mechanism therefore may underlie at least the Holocene segment of the North Atlantic's "1500-year" cycle. The surface hydrographic changes may have affected production of North Atlantic Deep Water, potentially providing an additional mechanism for amplifying the solar signals and transmitting them globally.

2,938 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Aug 2002-Weather
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors emphasise that the certainty of conclusions that can be drawn about climate from observations depends critically on the availability of accurate, complete and consistent series of observations.
Abstract: Chapter 2 emphasises change against a background of variability. The certainty of conclusions that can be drawn about climate from observations depends critically on the availability of accurate, complete and consistent series of observations. For many variables important in documenting, detecting, and attributing climate change, data are still not good enough for really firm conclusions to be reached. This especially applies to global trends in variables that have large regional variations, such as pre-

1,220 citations


Cites background from "Past Temperatures Directly from the..."

  • ...By contrast, central Greenland (Dahl-Jensen et al., 1998), and regions downstream of the Laurentide ice sheet, did not warm up until after 8 ky BP (including Europe: COHMAP Members, 1988; eastern North America: Webb et al....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a new record of Holocene isotope variations obtained from the NorthGRIP ice-core matches the GRIP short-term isotope record, and also shows similar long-term trends to the Dye-3 and GRIP inverted temperature data.
Abstract: Oxygen isotope variations spanning the last glacial cycle and the Holocene derived from ice-core records for six sites in Greenland (Camp Century, Dye-3, GRIP, GISP2, Renland and NorthGRIP) show strong similarities. This suggests that the dominant influence on oxygen isotope variations reflected in the ice-sheet records was regional climatic change. Differences in detail between the records probably reflect the effects of basal deformation in the ice as well as geographical gradients in atmospheric isotope ratios. Palaeotemperature estimates have been obtained from the records using three approaches: (i) inferences based on the measured relationship between mean annual δ18O of snow and of mean annual surface temperature over Greenland; (ii) modelled inversion of the borehole temperature profile constrained either by the dated isotopic profile, or (iii) by using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The third of these approaches was adopted to reconstruct Holocene temperature variations for the Dye 3 and GRIP temperature profiles, which yields remarkably compatible results. A new record of Holocene isotope variations obtained from the NorthGRIP ice-core matches the GRIP short-term isotope record, and also shows similar long-term trends to the Dye-3 and GRIP inverted temperature data. The NorthGRIP isotope record reflects: (i) a generally stronger isotopic signal than is found in the GRIP record; (ii) several short-lived temperature fluctuations during the first 1500 yr of the Holocene; (iii) a marked cold event at ca. 8.2 ka (the ‘8.2 ka event’); (iv) optimum temperatures for the Holocene between ca. 8.6 and 4.3 ka, a signal that is 0.6‰ stronger than for the GRIP profile; (v) a clear signal for the Little Ice Age; and (vi) a clear signal of climate warming during the last century. These data suggest that the NorthGRIP stable isotope record responded in a sensitive manner to temperature fluctuations during the Holocene. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

1,041 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
04 Aug 1995-Science
TL;DR: An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions.
Abstract: Greenland ice-core data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to a major source of low-frequency variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the past decade, the Oscillation has remained in one extreme phase during the winters, contributing significantly to the recent wintertime warmth across Europe and to cold conditions in the northwest Atlantic. An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions.

7,593 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a new estimate of the Earth's heat loss based on a new global compilation of heat flow measurements comprising 24,774 observations at 20,201 sites is presented, which when areally weighted yield a global mean of 87 mW m -2 and a global heat loss of 44.2 x 10 2 W, an increase of some 4-8% over earlier estimates.
Abstract: We present a new estimate of the Earth's heat loss based on a new global compilation of heat flow measurements comprising 24,774 observations at 20,201 sites. On a 5 o x 5 o grid, the observations cover 62% of the Earth's surface. Empirical estimators, ref- erenced to geological map units and derived from the observations, enable heat flow to be estimated in areas without measurements. Corrections for the effects of hydrothermal circulation in the oceanic crest compen- sate for the advected heat undetected in measurements of the conductive heat flux. The mean heat flows of continents and oceans are 65 and 101 mW m -2, re- spectively, which when areally weighted yield a global mean of 87 mW m -2 and a global heat loss of 44.2 x 10 2 W, an increase of some 4-8% over earlier esti- mates. More than half of the Earth's heat loss comes from Cenozoic oceanic lithosphere. A spherical hat- monic analysis of the global heat flow field reveals strong sectoral components and lesser zonal strength. The spectrum principally reflects the geographic dis- tribution of the ocean ridge system. The rate at which the heat flow spectrum loses strength with increasing harmonic degree is similar to the decline in spectral strength exhibited by the Earth's topography. The spectra of the gravitational and magnetic fields fall off much more steeply, consistent with field sources in the lower mantle and core, respectively. Families of con- tinental and oceanic conductive geotherms indicate the range of temperatures existing in the lithosphere under various surface heat flow conditions. The heat flow field is very well correlated with the seismic shear wave velocity distribution near the top of the upper mantle.

1,428 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In inverse problems, obtaining a maximum likelihood model is usually not sucient, as the theory linking data with model parameters is nonlinear and the a posteriori probability in the model space may not be easy to describe.
Abstract: Probabilistic formulation of inverse problems leads to the definition of a probability distribution in the model space. This probability distribution combines a priori information with new information obtained by measuring some observable parameters (data). As, in the general case, the theory linking data with model parameters is nonlinear, the a posteriori probability in the model space may not be easy to describe (it may be multimodal, some moments may not be defined, etc.). When analyzing an inverse problem, obtaining a maximum likelihood model is usually not sucient, as we normally also wish to have infor

1,124 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
14 Nov 1997-Science
TL;DR: A compilation of paleoclimate records from lake sediments, trees, glaciers, and marine sediments provides a view of circum-Arctic environmental variability over the last 400 years.
Abstract: A compilation of paleoclimate records from lake sediments, trees, glaciers, and marine sediments provides a view of circum-Arctic environmental variability over the last 400 years. From 1840 to the mid-20th century, the Arctic warmed to the highest temperatures in four centuries. This warming ended the Little Ice Age in the Arctic and has caused retreats of glaciers, melting of permafrost and sea ice, and alteration of terrestrial and lake ecosystems. Although warming, particularly after 1920, was likely caused by increases in atmospheric trace gases, the initiation of the warming in the mid-19th century suggests that increased solar irradiance, decreased volcanic activity, and feedbacks internal to the climate system played roles.

1,091 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jun 1993-Nature
TL;DR: Isotope and chemical analyses of the GRIP ice core from Summit, central Greenland reveal that climate in Greenland during the last interglacial period was characterized by a series of severe cold periods, which began extremely rapidly and lasted from decades to centuries.
Abstract: Isotope and chemical analyses of the GRIP ice core from Summit, central Greenland, reveal that climate in Greenland during the last interglacial period was characterized by a series of severe cold periods, which began extremely rapidly and lasted from decades to centuries. As the last interglacial seems to have been slightly warmer than the present one, its unstable climate raises questions about the effects of future global warming.

797 citations