Penalty Specialists Among Goalkeepers: A Nonparametric Bayesian Analysis of 44 Years of German Bundesliga
01 Jan 2009-pp 63-76
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used Bayesian hierarchical random effects models to shrink the individual goalkeepers estimates towards an overall estimate with the degree of shrinkage depending on the amount of information that is available for each goalkeeper.
Abstract: Penalty saving abilities are of major importance for a goalkeeper in modern football. However, statistical investigations of the performance of individual goalkeepers in penalties, leading to a ranking or a clustering of the keepers, are rare in the scientific literature. In this paper we will perform such an analysis based on all penalties in the German Bundesliga from 1963 to 2007. A challenge when analyzing such a data set is the fact that the counts of penalties for the different goalkeepers are highly imbalanced, leading to the question on how to compare goalkeepers who were involved in a disparate number of penalties. We will approach this issue by using Bayesian hierarchical random effects models. These models shrink the individual goalkeepers estimates towards an overall estimate with the degree of shrinkage depending on the amount of information that is available for each goalkeeper. The underlying random effects distribution will be modelled nonparametrically based on the Dirichlet process. Proceeding this way relaxes the assumptions underlying parametric random effect models and additionally allows to find clusters among the goalkeepers.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the existing goalkeeper (GK) research is based on GK performance but not with a match analysis theme, instead, it is focused on physiology, psychology and injury prevention.
Abstract: Much of the existing goalkeeper (GK) research is based around GK’s performance but not with a match analysis theme. Research has focused on physiology, psychology and injury prevention. Performance...
20 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of players' domestic/foreign status on performance-based pay offered to professional footballers is investigated. But the authors focus on the Italian league Serie A and find that the relationship between previous and current performance was partially mediated by the current salary.
Abstract: This study contributes to research on migrant pay disparities by analysing the impact of players' domestic/foreign status on performance-based pay offered to professional footballers, to understand if foreign players benefit from a preferential labour market. We used information from publicly available data of 275 footballers who played for two consecutive seasons in the Italian league Serie A. We found that the relationship between previous and current performance was partially mediated by the current salary. This result reinforced earlier findings on the pay-performance relationship, where seasonal performance is particularly relevant. Moreover, our results show that pay discrimination does not indicate a straightforward (dis)advantage for one group, but presents a more complex picture. We have examined possible underlying reasons for these disparities and offered suggestions for further research. We conclude by discussing how clubs and managers could consider incentives to strengthen pay-performance relationships by being sensitive to the complex influence of players' origins.
14 citations
Cites background or result from "Penalty Specialists Among Goalkeepe..."
...This view is consistent with recent literature in football that focuses on the role of positional skills in determining the performance of both players and teams (e.g. Bornkamp et al., 2009; Seaton and Campos, 2011)....
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...Nonetheless, using game statistics has the advantage of ensuring the data’s objectivity, but it might not entirely reflect each player’s performance in a particular game (Bornkamp et al., 2009)....
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...Empirical evidence suggests that different roles require different skills to be successful (e.g. Bornkamp et al., 2009; Seaton and Campos, 2011)....
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01 Jan 2002
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a paradigm simulating a penalty kick in the laboratory to investigate the dynamics of the closed-loop strategy in these controlled conditions, and the probability of correctly responding to the simulated goalkeeper motion as a function of time available followed a logistic curve.
Abstract: Sport scientists have devoted relatively little attention to soccer penalty kicks, despite their decisive role in important competitions such as the World Cup. Two possible kicker strategies have been described: ignoring the goalkeeper action (open loop) or trying to react to the goalkeeper action (closed loop). We used a paradigm simulating a penalty kick in the laboratory to investigate the dynamics of the closed-loop strategy in these controlled conditions. The probability of correctly responding to the simulated goalkeeper motion as a function of time available followed a logistic curve. Kickers on average reached perfect performance only if the goalkeeper committed him or herself to one side about 400 ms before ball contact and showed chance performance if the goalkeeper motion occurred less than 150 ms before ball contact. Interestingly, coincidence judgement - another aspect of the laboratory responses - appeared to be affected for a much longer time (>500 ms) than was needed to correctly determine...
6 citations
TL;DR: This work investigates the potential occurrence of a 'hot shoe' effect for the performance of penalty takers in football based on data from the German Bundesliga, and considers hidden Markov models (HMMs) to model the (latent) forms of players.
Abstract: We propose a penalized likelihood approach in hidden Markov models (HMMs) to perform automated variable selection. To account for a potential large number of covariates, which also may be substanti...
3 citations
Cites methods from "Penalty Specialists Among Goalkeepe..."
...Parts of the data have already been used in Bornkamp et al. (2009)....
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...ata The considered data set comprises all taken penalty kicks in the German Bundesliga from its rst season 1963/1964 until the end of the season 2016/2017. Parts of the data have already been used in Bornkamp et al. (2009). In the analysis, we include all players who took at least 5 penalty kicks during the time period considered, resulting in n = 3;482 penalty kicks taken by 310 dierent players. For these penalty kic...
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References
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TL;DR: This book is very referred for you because it gives not only the experience but also lesson that will give wellness for all people from many societies.
Abstract: Where you can find the science and football easily? Is it in the book store? On-line book store? are you sure? Keep in mind that you will find the book in this site. This book is very referred for you because it gives not only the experience but also lesson. The lessons are very valuable to serve for you, that's not about who are reading this science and football book. It is about this book that will give wellness for all people from many societies.
202 citations
TL;DR: This paper provides a tutorial on the practical implementation of a flexible random effects model based on methodology developed in Bayesian non‐parametrics literature, and implemented in freely available software, by providing code for Winbugs.
Abstract: Random effects models are used in many applications in medical statistics, including meta-analysis, cluster randomized trials and comparisons of health care providers. This paper provides a tutorial on the practical implementation of a flexible random effects model based on methodology developed in Bayesian non-parametrics literature, and implemented in freely available software. The approach is applied to the problem of hospital comparisons using routine performance data, and among other benefits provides a diagnostic to detect clusters of providers with unusual results, thus avoiding problems caused by masking in traditional parametric approaches. By providing code for Winbugs we hope that the model can be used by applied statisticians working in a wide variety of applications.
178 citations
"Penalty Specialists Among Goalkeepe..." refers background in this paper
...We refer to [14] for a detailed discussion of this aspect....
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...The material in this section is mainly based on [4], who provides a recent review of nonparametric modeling of random effects distributions in Bayesian hierarchical models, and [14], who also illustrate how to implement a related model in BUGS....
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01 Apr 2010
TL;DR: This chapter provides a brief review and motivation for the use of nonparametric Bayes methods in biostatistical applications, with the emphasis on methods utilizing random probability measures that seem particularly useful in addressing the considerable challenges faced in modern biOSTatistical research.
Abstract: This chapter provides a brief review and motivation for the use of nonparametric Bayes methods in biostatistical applications. Clearly, the nonparametric Bayes biostatistical literature is increasingly vast, and it is not possible to present properly or even mention most of the approaches that have been proposed. Instead, the focus here is entirely on methods utilizing random probability measures, with the emphasis on a few approaches that seem particularly useful in addressing the considerable challenges faced in modern biostatistical research. In addition, the emphasis will be entirely on practical applications-motivated considerations, with the goal of moving the reader towards implementing related approaches for their own data. Readers interested in the theoretical motivation, which is certainly a fascinating area in itself, are referred to the cited papers and to Chapters 1–4. Introduction Biomedical research has clearly evolved at a dramatic rate in the past decade, with improvements in technology leading to a fundamental shift in the way in which data are collected and analyzed. Before this paradigm shift, studies were most commonly designed to be simple and to focus on relationships among a few variables of primary interest. For example, in a clinical trial, patients may be randomized to receive either the drug or placebo, with the analysis focusing on a comparison of means between the two groups. However, with emerging biotechnology tools, scientists are increasingly interested in studying how patients vary in their response to drug therapies, and what factors predict this variability.
111 citations
"Penalty Specialists Among Goalkeepe..." refers methods in this paper
...In the first two parts of this section we will describe the statistical methodology, while the third part deals with the actual model and priors we will use for the analysis in Section 3. The material in this section is mainly based on [ 4 ], who provides a recent review of nonparametric modeling of random effects distributions in Bayesian hierarchical models, and [14], who also illustrate how to implement a related model in BUGS....
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TL;DR: The results showed that penalty-taking performance was apt to be less than perfect in either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy.
Abstract: This field experiment investigated the relative merits of approaching the penalty kick with either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. In the keeper-independent strategy, the shooter selects a target location in advance and disregards the goalkeeper's actions during the run-up. In the keeper-dependent strategy, the shooter makes a decision resting on the anticipation of the goalkeeper's movements during the run-up. Ten intermediate-level soccer players shot at one of two visually specified targets to the right and left side of the goal. In the keeper-independent strategy condition, participants were told that the visually specified target would not change. In the keeper-dependent strategy condition, participants were told that in half of the trials the visually specified target would change side at different times before ball contact, indicating that the direction of the kick needed to be altered. The results showed that penalty-taking performance was apt to be less than perfect in...
103 citations
93 citations
"Penalty Specialists Among Goalkeepe..." refers methods in this paper
...proximate Stirling numbers for large n methods introduced by [20] can be used)....
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