Performers, trackers, lemmings and the lost: sustained false optimism in forecasting project outcomes—evidence from a quasi-experiment
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In this article, the authors investigate whether optimism bias persists beyond the planning phase and into the execution phase, and if so, explore the reasons why, and demonstrate on-going or sustained false optimism.Abstract:
The consistently successful delivery of projects remains an ambition that many organisations do not achieve. Whilst the reasons behind project failure are many, one recognised factor is the ‘planning fallacy’ – over-optimism in the planning phase of a project. Whilst the planning phase of a project may be a battle for acceptance and resource allocation, the execution phase is a battle for delivery. Based on both qualitative and quantitative data gathered from a project management simulation, this study set out to establish whether optimism bias persists beyond the planning phase and into the execution phase, and, if so, to explore the reasons why. The results confirm the extent and impact of optimism bias in initial project planning. More importantly, the contribution of this study is to demonstrate on-going or sustained false optimism.read more
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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions☆
Roger Buehler,Dale Griffin +1 more
TL;DR: The authors examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project completion times and found that people generate overly optimistic predictions, in part, because they focus narrowly on their future plans for the target task and thus neglect other useful sources of information.
Journal ArticleDOI
When Thinking Beats Doing: The Role of Optimistic Expectations in Goal-Based Choice
TL;DR: In this paper, optimistic expectations of future goal pursuit have greater impact on immediate actions than do less optimistic considerations, such as retrospections on past goal pursuit or less optimistic expectations, and the direction of the impact is determined by the framing of goal pursuit.
Journal ArticleDOI
Decomposed versus holistic estimates of effort required for software writing tasks
Terry Connolly,Doug Dean +1 more
TL;DR: It is suggested that the best level of decomposition at which to elicit work-time estimates may depend on task, judge, and elicitation method, as well as to practical application.
Journal ArticleDOI
The techniques of risk analysis are insufficient in themselves
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the techniques of risk analysis are necessary but in themselves insufficient components of the management of risk process, and propose a definition of the term risk analysis, suggesting that the term refers to the sum of risk identification, estimation, and evaluation.
Book
MEGAMISTAKES: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify the most common mistakes in forecasting technological developments and provide guidelines for reliable, lower-risk forecasting and provide three key guidelines to reliable and lower risk forecasting.