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Personalized Multidimensional Process Framework For Dynamic Risk Analysis In The Real Estate Industry

TL;DR: A new personalized multidimensional process (PMP) framework based on knowledge discovery is proposed which will be based on deterministic approach using historical data driven to decision support using knowledge discovery in database and the heuristic approach which is refers to investors’ personalization of the risk factors which fulfil their requirements.
Abstract: The risk analysis for real estate property investment is subject to high risk. It is qualitatively and quantitatively assessed by various techniques such as the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the analytic network process (ANP) which determine the risk factors based on expert survey, weight and rank the factors using algorithm and mathematical formula and decide the best investment based on performance index of the alternatives given. However, experts from the field have different opinions and judgments about the environment of the real estate industry and this scenario will affect the result of the risk factor weight and ranking. Moreover, different investors have different goals and objectives to be achieve. Thus, this paper will propose a new personalized multidimensional process (PMP) framework based on knowledge discovery. This framework comprises of two new methods namely the personalized association mapping (PAM) method and the personalized multidimensional – sensitivity analysis (PMSA) method. The innovations of this research are the justification of risk factor weight and ranking. It will be based on deterministic approach using historical data driven to decision support using knowledge discovery in database and the heuristic approach which is refers to investors’ personalization of the risk factors which fulfil their requirements.

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Citations
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01 Jan 2003
TL;DR: In this article, a study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments, and it was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainties resulted from forecasting errors.
Abstract: A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

36 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: To solve the problem of job-shop scheduling with multi-objective group constraints, it presents a scheduling algorithm combing the fuzzy decision-making method and the preferential assignment heuristic scheduling algorithm.
Abstract: To solve the problem of job-shop scheduling with multi-objective group constraints,it presents a scheduling algorithm combing the fuzzy decision-making method and the preferential assignment heuristic scheduling algorithm.The weight coefficients of multi-objective group are firstly determined by analysis hierarchy process,the processing machine tools used in each procedures of parts are determined by using the fuzzy decision-making method.Based on above analysis,it gives the order of parts to be processed on the same machine tool with the preferential assignment heuristic scheduling problem.The results show that the method is effective.

24 citations

01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: In this article, a risk evaluation method for residential real estate projects based on fuzzy set theory which uses linguistic variables and respective fuzzy numbers to evaluate the factors is presented, which allows experts and engineers to express their opinions on project risk evaluation in linguistic variables rather than crisp values.
Abstract: With the rapid development of residential real estate market, risk evaluation has been an important task in the process of project. This paper describes a risk evaluation method for residential real estate projects based on fuzzy set theory which uses linguistic variables and respective fuzzy numbers to evaluate the factors. The primary weights of factors and evaluation of alternatives are determined by applying linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers. The notion of Shapley value is used to determine the global value of each factor in accomplishing the overall objective of the risk evaluation process, so the primary weights are revised, thus the importance of factors can be reflected more precisely. A major advantage of the method is that it allows experts and engineers to express their opinions on project risk evaluation in linguistic variables rather than crisp values. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the application of the method in risk evaluation. The results are consistent with the results calculated by conventional risk evaluation method. The research demonstrates that the method is objective and accurate, and is of an application value in the risk evaluation for residential real estate project.

10 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a modified analytical hierarchy process is used to structure and prioritize diverse risk factors, and an illustrative example on risk analysis of steel erection of the superstructure in a shopping centre was used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

484 citations

Book
01 Jan 2007
Abstract: This book proposes a set of models to describe fuzzy multi-objective decision making (MODM), fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), fuzzy group decision making (GDM) and fuzzy multi-objective group decision-making problems, respectively. It also gives a set of related methods (including algorithms) to solve these problems. One distinguishing feature of this book is that it provides two decision support systems software for readers to apply these proposed methods. A set of real-world applications and some new directions in this area are then described to further instruct readers how to use these methods and software in their practice.

312 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider a housing development as an investment opportunity encompassing several options regarding information acquisition, deferral and abandonment, and show improved risk management, identifying the optimal strategy (simultaneous vs. sequential) and timing for the construction phases.

56 citations


"Personalized Multidimensional Proce..." refers background or methods in this paper

  • ...These methods or models have different characteristics, advantages and limitations to be applied in different fields (Sun et al. 2008; Lander & Pinches 1998, cited in Rocha et al. 2007)....

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  • ...Some of the problems include the lack of mathematical skills, restrictive modelling assumptions, increasing complexity and limited power to predict investment in competitive markets (Lander & Pinches, 1998 cited in Rocha et al. 2007)....

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  • ...2008), Markowitz, fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP), a real option method (Rocha et al. 2007), and a hidden Markov model....

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  • ...Some of the methods or models include a Monte Carlo method, fuzzy set theory (Sun et al. 2008), Markowitz, fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP), a real option method (Rocha et al. 2007), and a hidden Markov model....

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Book
05 Oct 2009
TL;DR: In this paper, a cognition-driven decision process (CDDP) model is proposed to facilitate cognitive decision support to managers on the basis of BI systems, where decision makers situation awareness and mental models are considered to be two important prerequisites for decision making.
Abstract: Cognition-driven decision support system (DSS) has been recognized as a paradigm in the research and development of business intelligence (BI). Cognitive decision support aims to help managers in their decision making from human cognitive aspects, such as thinking, sensing, understanding and predicting, and fully reuse their experience. Among these cognitive aspects, decision makers situation awareness (SA) and mental models are considered to be two important prerequisites for decision making, particularly in ill-structured and dynamic decision situations with uncertainties, time pressure and high personal stake. In todays business domain, decision making is becoming increasingly complex. To make a successful decision, managers SA about their business environments becomes a critical factor. This book presents theoretical models as well practical techniques of cognitiondriven DSS. It first introduces some important concepts of cognition orientation in decision making process and some techniques in related research areas including DSS, data warehouse and BI, offering readers a preliminary for moving forward in this book. It then proposes a cognition-driven decision process (CDDP) model which incorporates SA and experience (mental models) as its central components. The goal of the CDDP model is to facilitate cognitive decision support to managers on the basis of BI systems. It also presents relevant techniques developed to support the implementation of the CDDP model in a BI environment. Key issues addressed of a typical business decision cycle in the CDDP model include: natural language interface for a managers SA input, extraction of SA semantics, construction of data warehouse queries based on the mangers SA and experience, situation information retrieval from data warehouse, how the manager perceives situation information and update SA, how the managers SA leads to a final decision. Finally, a cognition-driven DSS, FACETS, and two illustrative applications of this system are discussed.

53 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market using conditional international asset pricing models using a modified version of the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gerard [De Santis, G., Gerard, B., 1998, How big is the premium for currency risk? Journal of Financial Economics 49, 375-412].

50 citations


"Personalized Multidimensional Proce..." refers background in this paper

  • ...According to Saleem and Vaihekoski (2008), currency risk can have very important implications for portfolio management, the cost of capital of a firm, and asset pricing, as well as currency hedging strategies, as any source of risk which is not compensated for in terms of expected returns should be…...

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