Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming.
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...We quantified the climate sensitivity of shrub growth—that is, the strength of relationship between annual growth and climate variables (including temperature and precipitation, specific calculations described below)—to test four hypotheses: (1) The greatest climate sensitivity of growth should occur at northern or high-elevation range edges if plant performance is more climate limited in the harsher growing conditions at range edges than in the centre of species distributions20–22....
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...We calculated four complementary indices of climate sensitivity from the mixed model analysis for each genus-by-site combination: (1) the di erence in Akaike information criterion (AIC) between the best climate model and a null model (1AIC), (2) the R2 for the best climate model, (3) the absolute value of the slope of the relationship between growth and summer temperature and (4) the proportion of individuals that had significant linear relationships between growth and summer temperature (the best predictor from the overall analysis)....
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...Our analyses demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was: (1) heterogeneous, with European sites showing greater summer temperature sensitivity than North American sites, and (2) higher at sites with greater soil moisture and for taller shrubs (for example, alders and willows) growing at their northern or upper elevational range edges....
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