Policy Choices Can Help Keep 4G and 5G Universal Broadband Affordable
TL;DR: Providing governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes conducive to lowering costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade.
Abstract: The United Nations Broadband Commission has committed the international community to accelerate universal broadband. However, the cost of meeting this objective, and the feasibility of doing so on a commercially viable basis, are not well understood. Using scenario analysis, this paper compares the global cost-effectiveness of different infrastructure strategies for the developing world to achieve universal 4G or 5G mobile broadband. Utilizing remote sensing and demand forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for eight representative low and middle-income countries (Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Pakistan, Albania, Peru and Mexico), the results from which form the basis for aggregation to the global level. The cost of meeting a minimum 10 Mbps per user is estimated at USD 1.7 trillion using 5G Non-Standalone, approximately 0.6% of annual GDP for the developing world over the next decade. However, by creating a favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring down these costs by as much as three quarters, to USD 0.5 trillion (approximately 0.2% of annual GDP), and avoid the need for public subsidy. Providing governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes conducive to lowering costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse whether employees' use of mobile internet access improves firms' labour productivity and find that mobile internet use does cause higher labour productivity in German firms, compared to the early stages of diffusion within firms.
Abstract: Mobile internet access allows for flexibility with respect to working time and working place. We analyse whether employees’ use of mobile internet access improves firms’ labour productivity. Our data set contains 2143 German firms and refers to the year 2014, when high-speed mobile internet was still at a relatively early stage of diffusion within firms. The econometric analysis shows that firms’ labour productivity significantly increases with the share of employees with mobile internet access. Our instrumental variables approach reveals that mobile internet use does cause higher labour productivity.
60 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the impact of mobile phones on farmers' marketing decisions (spatial arbitrage, buyer's choice, frequency of selling, and size of transaction) and prices they received based on household and village level information collected from rural Ethiopia.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of mobile phones on farmers’ marketing decisions (spatial arbitrage, buyer’s choice, frequency of selling, and size of transaction) and prices they receive based on household and village level information collected from rural Ethiopia. It explains the reason for the weak impact of mobile phones observed in this study as well as in previous studies in Africa. We argue that even though many farmers participate in information searching, the number of farmers who use mobile phones for information searching is very small. The reason for such low use of mobile phones for information searching seems lack of quality information that can be accessed through mobile phones.
57 citations
01 Apr 2022
TL;DR: In this article , the authors present a framework of core components of digital inclusion, including access/use, quality of access, affordability, and digital skills, and review the empirical literature on digital divides in developing countries.
Abstract: Focusing on the internet as a foundational technology, this paper begins by summarising recent developments in digital inclusion theory, particularly as this relates to developing countries. It sets out a framework of core components of digital inclusion - including ac-cess/use, quality of access/use, affordability, and digital skills - and briefly considers policy implications. The paper then surveys the ways these components are currently measured in household and firm surveys and by international organisations, highlighting some of the often-overlooked weaknesses of current measures, and suggesting possible improvements. The paper also reflects on potential applications of (and risks associated with) new ways of measuring digital inclusion using big data. Lastly, building on the framework developed, the paper reviews the empirical literature on ‘digital divides’ in developing countries, and makes suggestions for how future research could become more rigorous and useful.
16 citations
TL;DR: A machine learning method is presented that uses publicly available satellite imagery to predict telecoms demand metrics, including cell phone adoption and spending on mobile services, and applies the method to Malawi and Ethiopia and consistently outperforms baseline models which use population density or nightlight luminosity.
10 citations
Cites methods from "Policy Choices Can Help Keep 4G and..."
...Additionally, nighttime luminosity has also been used to scale telecom demand, for example in estimating the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) (Oughton, 2021; Oughton et al., 2021; Oughton and Jha, 2021)....
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...Information would be collected via on-the-ground survey methods and cover (i) existing cell phone ownership for basic, featurephone and smartphone devices, (ii) the current Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), and (iii) the potential willingness to pay for new services....
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TL;DR: The survey discusses emerging trends from the 5G techno-economic literature and makes five key recommendations for the design and standardization of Next Generation 6G wireless technologies.
Abstract: Techno-economic assessment is a fundamental technique engineers use for evaluating new communications technologies. However, despite the techno-economics of the fifth cellular generation (5G) being an active research area, it is surprising there are few comprehensive evaluations of this growing literature. With mobile network operators deploying 5G across their networks, it is therefore an opportune time to appraise current accomplishments and review the state-of-the-art. Such insight can inform the flurry of 6G research papers currently underway and help engineers in their mission to provide affordable high-capacity, low-latency broadband connectivity, globally. The survey discusses emerging trends from the 5G techno-economic literature and makes five key recommendations for the design and standardization of Next Generation 6G wireless technologies.
10 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate the effect of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed internet, on economic growth in the panel of OECD countries in 1996-2007, and find that a 10 percentagepoint increase in broadband penetration raises annual per-capita growth by 0.9-1.5 percentage points.
Abstract: We estimate the effect of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed internet, on economic growth in the panel of OECD countries in 1996-2007. Our instrumental-variable model derives its non-linear first stage from a logistic diffusion model where pre-existing voice-telephony and cable-TV networks predict maximum broadband penetration. We find that a 10 percentage-point increase in broadband penetration raises annual per-capita growth by 0.9-1.5 percentage points. Results are robust to country and year fixed effects and controlling for linear second-stage effects of our instruments. We verify that our instruments predict broadband penetration but not diffusion of contemporaneous technologies like mobile telephony and computers.
767 citations
"Policy Choices Can Help Keep 4G and..." refers background in this paper
...Figure S6 Spectrum costs Spectrum prices are lower in the clusters with lower GDP per capita, as spectrum prices are correlated with the ARPU and relative market power....
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...Recent estimation suggests that a 10% increase in mobile penetration is associated with an average increase in GDP per capita between 0.59 to 0.76% depending on the model specification (Bahia and Castells, 2019)....
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...Cluster 3 (C3) includes very densely populated countries, with low GDP per capita and 4G coverage only marginally above average....
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...In GDP terms, the same costs translate into 0.31-0.57% of GDP for the baseline scenario, and 0.18-0.32% of GDP for the minimum cost scenario....
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...The cost of meeting the UN Broadband Commission target of a minimum 10 Mbps per user is estimated at $1.7 trillion using 5G NSA, equating to approximately 0.6% of annual GDP for the developing world over the next decade....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimate the effect of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed internet, on economic growth in the panel of OECD countries in 1996-2007, and find that a 10 percentage point increase in broadband penetration raised annual per capita growth by 0.9-1.5 percentage points.
Abstract: We estimate the effect of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed internet, on economic growth in the panel of OECD countries in 1996-2007. Our instrumental variable model derives its non-linear first stage from a logistic diffusion model where pre-existing voice telephony and cable TV networks predict maximum broadband penetration. We find that a 10 percentage point increase in broadband penetration raised annual per capita growth by 0.9-1.5 percentage points. Results are robust to country and year fixed effects and controlling for linear second-stage effects of our instruments. We verify that our instruments predict broadband penetration but not diffusion of contemporaneous technologies like mobile telephony and computers.
720 citations
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17 Feb 2006TL;DR: An Introduction to R What Is R?
Abstract: An Introduction to R What Is R? Installing R Help and Documentation Data Objects in R Data Import and Export Basic Data Manipulation Computing with Data Organizing an Analysis Data Analysis Using Graphical Displays Introduction Initial Data Analysis Analysis Using R Simple Inference Introduction Statistical Tests Analysis Using R Conditional Inference Introduction Conditional Test Procedures Analysis Using R Analysis of Variance Introduction Analysis of Variance Analysis Using R Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Introduction Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression Analysis Using R Logistic Regression and Generalized Linear Models Introduction Logistic Regression and Generalized Linear Models Analysis Using R Density Estimation Introduction Density Estimation Analysis Using R Recursive Partitioning Introduction Recursive Partitioning Analysis Using R Scatterplot Smoothers and Generalized Additive Models Introduction Scatterplot Smoothers and Generalized Additive Models Analysis Using R Survival Analysis Introduction Survival Analysis Analysis Using R Analyzing Longitudinal Data I Introduction Analyzing Longitudinal Data Linear Mixed Effects Models Analysis Using R Prediction of Random Effects The Problem of Dropouts Analyzing Longitudinal Data II Introduction Methods for Nonnormal Distributions Analysis Using R: GEE Analysis Using R: Random Effects Simultaneous Inference and Multiple Comparisons Introduction Simultaneous Inference and Multiple Comparisons Analysis Using R Meta-Analysis Introduction Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Statistics of Meta-Analysis Analysis Using R Meta-Regression Publication Bias Principal Component Analysis Introduction Principal Component Analysis Analysis Using R Multidimensional Scaling Introduction Multidimensional Scaling Analysis Using R Cluster Analysis Introduction Cluster Analysis Analysis Using R Bibliography Index A Summary appears at the end of each chapter.
591 citations
"Policy Choices Can Help Keep 4G and..." refers methods in this paper
...This quantity significantly reduces the group-level variation via the Within-Group Sum of Squares (Hothorn and Everitt, 2014), while making the results easy to obtain and report....
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TL;DR: In this article, a macroeconomic production function with a micro-model for broadband investment is used to estimate the impact of broadband infrastructure and growth, and the results indicate a significant causal positive link especially when a critical mass of infrastructure is present.
568 citations
"Policy Choices Can Help Keep 4G and..." refers background in this paper
...Figure S6 Spectrum costs Spectrum prices are lower in the clusters with lower GDP per capita, as spectrum prices are correlated with the ARPU and relative market power....
[...]
...Recent estimation suggests that a 10% increase in mobile penetration is associated with an average increase in GDP per capita between 0.59 to 0.76% depending on the model specification (Bahia and Castells, 2019)....
[...]
...Cluster 3 (C3) includes very densely populated countries, with low GDP per capita and 4G coverage only marginally above average....
[...]
...In GDP terms, the same costs translate into 0.31-0.57% of GDP for the baseline scenario, and 0.18-0.32% of GDP for the minimum cost scenario....
[...]
...The cost of meeting the UN Broadband Commission target of a minimum 10 Mbps per user is estimated at $1.7 trillion using 5G NSA, equating to approximately 0.6% of annual GDP for the developing world over the next decade....
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