Population Growth and Land Use Land Cover Change Scenario in Ethiopia
14 Aug 2020-International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy (Science Publishing Group)-Vol. 8, Iss: 4, pp 77
TL;DR: In this article, a study was done to assess the relationship between population growth and land use land cover change in Ethiopia, which revealed that there were considerable LULC changes in the second half of 20th century particularly in the highland part of the country.
Abstract: Land use and land cover change (LULC) is widespread, accelerating, and significant processes driven by human actions but also producing changes that impact humans. These changes can alter the availability of different biophysical resources including soil, vegetation, water, animal feed and finally it leads to a decreased availability of different products and services for human, livestock, agricultural production and damage to the environment as well. Understanding land use land cover change with relation to population growth at various scales is vital for development of management strategies to tackle further decline of natural resources. In connection to this, a seminar paper was done to assess the relationship between population growth and land use land cover change in Ethiopia. Recently published articles, books, proceedings, dissertations and government reports were used as a secondary data source for this review paper. The result reveals that in Ethiopia there were considerable LULC changes in the second half of 20th century particularly in the highland part of the country. Forest and woodlands coverage of the country was declined from 40% in the early 20th century to 15%. Similarly, the population was rapidly growing from 41.2 million in 1985 to 63.5 million in 2000 and it was reached 96.6 million in 2015. Based on these results it can be concluded that, LULC change and population change have a strong relationship; as population increases the need for cultivated land, grazing land, fuel wood; settlement areas also increases to meet the growing demand for food and energy, and livestock population. Similarly, rapid population growth exerts pressure on the existing land resources through increasing the demand for food, wood for fuel and construction purposes, and other necessities.
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01 Jan 1977
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a readable, multidisciplinary, and historical overview of the impact of population growth, with particular emphasis on the development process in the West, and as the title suggests, the book is organized around a tightlyargued general theory, overstated but of great heuristic utility.
Abstract: In the German Ideology, Marx and Engels attribute early social evolution to “increased productivity, the increase of needs, and, what is fundamental to both of these, the increase ofpopulation.”*They failed to pursue this line of reasoning, however, giving priority instead to the denunciation of the “theory of population” made popular by Malthus and adopted as theoretical armour by many opponenta of social reform in nineteenth century England.* Marxist social science, strongly imprinted by this debate, has since tended to rest with the conclusion that “overpopulation”if it existed at all was an epiphenomenon of capitalimn that would be resolved by the advanced technology and wia l i s t organization of the future. While no doubt c o d as far as it goes, this view has the danger of implying that population is a primarily dependent variable, without structural effects that require investigation. Such an assumption is particularly debatable if carried over to the analysis of pre-capitalist societies, where the natural, physical underpinnings of social life may play a relatively determinate and m e d i a t e d role. In any event, the stqdy of population has been revived in recent years by a wide array of technocrats, popular writers, and academic specialieta. While a strain of “bourgeois apologetics” remains evident in some of these writings, we should not, on that account, ignore their contribution. The labors of a generation of archaeologists, anthropologists, and historians have given rise to an impressive body of litsrature on the historical role of population, while the study of contemporary trends, if less consistent in theoretical and methodological approach, is well underway. In an area still characterized by arcane specialization as opposed to synthesis, Wilkinson’s Poverty and Progress is especially welcome. On the one hand, it provides a readable, multidisciplinary, and historical overview of the impact of population growth, with particular emphasis on the development process in the West. Secondly, and as the title suggests, the book is organized around a tightly-argued general theory, overstated, but of great heuristic utility. Economic development, Wilkinson states, stems from three sources: “the breakdown of ecological equilibrium, the demands of technical consistency and the development of new forms of need as the real costs of living are changed.” The second factor operates as an intervening variable, shaping the actual content of technological change; more fundamental are the first and third, both of which, echoing Marx and Engels’ early perception, depend largely on rising population.
52 citations
TL;DR: The proposed CA-MC model was tested in the city center of Kastamonu, Türkiye, using four time periods: 1985, 2011, 2015, and 2021, and its suitability was demonstrated with the Kappa index of agreement values.
9 citations
01 Dec 2021
TL;DR: In this article, an attempt has been made to map and quantify the LULC change, find its driving factors as well as identify the suitable sites for future urban growth in Aligarh, where slaughterhouses are situated in the city outskirts.
Abstract: Slaughterhouses are important spaces that require an optimum place to be located so that they do not pose any harm to the surrounding environment. Historically slaughterhouses were located in the middle of the settlements, however with time, considering the harmful environmental impacts of slaughterhouses, the need for their relocation in the peripheries has been felt. Therefore, the relocation of slaughterhouses started earlier in the developed countries and later in developing countries. In India, the relocation of slaughterhouses in the outskirts has been started in the last few decades. However, in the establishment of slaughterhouses, the common problem is that the sites lack a reasonable time dimension so that they are soon gets encroached by other urban land uses. Eventually, slaughterhouses become subject to relocation earlier than expected. The current study has been conducted in Aligarh, where slaughterhouses are situated in the city outskirts. However, to examine the impact of urban sprawl on the location of slaughterhouses, an attempt has been made to map and quantify the LULC change, find its driving factors as well as identify the suitable sites for future urban growth. The results revealed that land use has changed tremendously over the years with built-up lands swallowing most of the agricultural and vacant lands not only in the periphery but also the lands very close to slaughterhouses. Site suitability analysis for urban growth revealed that most of the areas within a one-kilometer buffer around the slaughterhouses, fall under the category of highly suitable for urban growth. Therefore, it is projected that in the coming years, the expansion of the city will intrude on the areas around slaughterhouses and slaughterhouses will be situated in the heart of settlements. Although the situation of a slaughterhouse near settlements will help in the socio-economic development of local areas but at the same time, it will pose environmental consequences in the form of air, water, land, and noise pollution. The study thus suggests that while planning the location of any industry or utility service in a region, consideration of LULC change and the phenomenon of urban sprawl is obligatory. Government should form proper management strategies to tackle the growing population, LULC changes, and urban sprawl in an area for planned development.
2 citations
01 Apr 2022
TL;DR: In this article , the authors assessed the land-use change of Chattogram City Corporation from 1990 to 2020 using Landsat TM and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS images.
Abstract: Bangladesh is a developing country with a small landmass and huge population density. The land is thus a vital natural resource for Bangladesh. However, lack of proper land-use planning, inappropriate urbanisation, and management results in a dramatic land-use change in Bangladesh. Chattogram City Corporation has gone through various land-use changes since the 1990s. In this study, the land-use change of Chattogram City Corporation from 1990 to 2020 was assessed using Landsat TM and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS images. The ArcGIS v 10.4 and ERDAS Imagine v 15 were used in the present study to process satellite imageries and assess quantitative data for land-use change. Maximum-likelihood supervision was used for classification. Accuracy assessment was done using ERDAS imagine, and Kappa statistics measured to find out the percentage of avoiding error. The findings indicate that vegetation area decreases (25.85% in the year 2020) and settlement area increases (44.67% in the year 2020) are common under all four scenarios. In the year 2020, agricultural land increases to 14.79% than in the year 2010 (10.06%). There is a continuous decline in waterbody from 11.94% in 1990 to 5.44% in the year 2020. On the basis of the above study, the average rate of losing vegetation area every year was about 2.79%, whereas the average rate of increasing settlement area every year was about 3.28%. The present study shows that vegetation area was converted to settlement area. Again, an average reduction in the waterbody and barren land every year was 0.83 and 0.24%, respectively, and the average growth rate of agricultural land each year was 0.58%. The overall supervised classification accuracy was found to be 84% for 2020, 84% for 2010, 86% for 2000, and 82% for 1990 with Kappa values 0.79, 0.78, 0.80, and 0.73 for the year 2020, 2010, 2000, and 1990, respectively, and the outcome was satisfactory. Results of this study would be helpful in planning and taking managemental decisions for a balanced and environment-friendly land-use system in Chattogram City Corporation area.
2 citations
References
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TL;DR: Tropical deforestation is driven by identifiable regional patterns of causal factor synergies, of which the most prominent are economic factors, institutions, national policies, and remote influences driving agricultural expansion, wood extraction, and infrastructure extension (at the proximate level).
Abstract: Articles O ne of the primary causes of global environmental change is tropical deforestation, but the question of what factors drive deforestation remains largely unanswered (NRC 1999). Various hypotheses have produced rich arguments , but empirical evidence on the causes of deforestation continues to be largely based on cross-national statistical In some cases, these analyses are based on debatable data on rates of forest cover change (Palo 1999). The two major, mutually exclusive—and still unsatisfactory—explanations for tropical deforestation are single-factor causation and irre-ducible complexity. On the one hand, proponents of single-factor causation suggest various primary causes, such as shift-On the other hand, correlations between deforestation and multiple causative factors are many and varied , revealing no distinct pattern In addition to chronicling these attempts to identify general causes of deforestation through global-scale statistical analyses, the literature is rich in local-scale case studies investigating the causes and processes of forest cover change in specific localities. Our aim with this study is to generate from local-scale case studies a general understanding of the prox-imate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation while preserving the descriptive richness of these studies. Proximate causes are human activities or immediate actions at the local level, such as agricultural expansion, that originate from intended land use and directly impact forest cover. Underlying driving forces are fundamental social processes, such as human population dynamics or agricultural policies, that underpin the proximate causes and either operate at the local level or have an indirect impact from the national or global level. We analyzed the frequency of proximate causes and underlying driving forces of deforestation, including their interactions , as reported in 152 subnational case studies. We show that tropical deforestation is driven by identifiable regional patterns of causal factor synergies, of which the most prominent are economic factors, institutions, national policies, and remote influences (at the underlying level) driving agricultural expansion, wood extraction, and infrastructure extension (at the proximate level). Our findings reveal that prior stud-Helmut Geist (e-mail: geist@geog.ucl.ac.be) is a postdoctoral researcher (geography) in the field of human drivers of global environmental change and executive director of the Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Eric Lambin is a professor of geography with research interests in remote sensing and human ecology applied to studies of deforestation, desertification, and bio-mass burning in tropical regions. He is the chair of the IGBP and IHDP …
2,919 citations
"Population Growth and Land Use Land..." refers background in this paper
...Proximate (direct) causes are immediate actions of local people in order to execute their desires from the draw on of the land [39]; whereas driving causes are causes which drives behind the immediate causes....
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28 Nov 2003
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight the complexity of land-use/cover change and propose a framework for a more general understanding of the issue, with emphasis on tropical regions, and argue that a systematic analysis of local-scale land use change studies, conducted over a range of timescales, helps to uncover general principles that provide an explanation and prediction of new land use changes.
Abstract: We highlight the complexity of land-use/cover change and propose a framework for a more general understanding of the issue, with emphasis on tropical regions. The review summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, tropical deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization and identifies the still unmeasured land-cover changes. Climate-driven land-cover modifications interact with land-use changes. Land-use change is driven by synergetic factor combinations of resource scarcity leading to an increase in the pressure of production on resources, changing opportunities created by markets, outside policy intervention, loss of adaptive capacity, and changes in social organization and attitudes. The changes in ecosystem goods and services that result from land-use change feed back on the drivers of land-use change. A restricted set of dominant pathways of land-use change is identified. Land-use change can be understood using the concepts of complex adaptive systems and transitions. Integrated, place-based research on land-use/land-cover change requires a combination of the agent-based systems and narrative perspectives of understanding. We argue in this paper that a systematic analysis of local-scale land-use change studies, conducted over a range of timescales, helps to uncover general principles that provide an explanation and prediction of new land-use changes.
2,491 citations
01 Jan 2002
TL;DR: A review of different types of land-use change models incorporating human processes is presented in this article, where the authors compare land use change models in terms of scale (both spatial and temporal) and complexity, and how well they incorporate space, time and human decisionmaking.
Abstract: A review of different types of land-use change models incorporating human processes. Presents a framework to compare land-use change models in terms of scale (both spatial and temporal) and complexity, and how well they incorporate space, time, and human decisionmaking. Examines a summary set of 250 relevant citations and develops a bibliography of 136 papers. From these papers, 19 land-use models are reviewed in detail as representative of the broader set of models. Summarizes and discusses the 19 models in terms of dynamic (temporal) and spatial interactions, as well as human decisionmaking. Many raster models examined mirror the extent and resolution of remote-sensing data. The broadest-scale models generally are not spatially explicit. Models incorporating higher levels of human decisionmaking are more centrally located with respect to spatial and temporal scales, probably due to the lack of data availability at more extreme scales. Examines the social drivers of land-use change and methodological trends and concludes with some proposals for future directions in land-use modeling.
581 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a geographic information system (GIS) and a remote sensing approach with field verification to monitor land use and land cover changes that occurred from 1957 to 1995 in the Dembecha area, Gojam, in the Northwestern highlands of Ethiopia.
Abstract: Land use and land cover changes that occurred from 1957 to 1995 in the Dembecha area, Gojam, in the Northwestern highlands of Ethiopia, were monitored using a geographic information system (GIS) and a remote sensing approach with field verification. The study area covers 27,100 ha and is representative of Gojam, which is known for its cereal production and export of surplus to major cities of the country. However, given the age-old tradition of clearing increasingly steeper land for cultivation and the lack of appropriate land use policies, productivity is currently heavily threatened by soil degradation. The results show that the natural forest cover declined from 27% in 1957 to 2% in 1982 and 0.3% in 1995. The total natural forest cleared between 1957 and 1995 amounts to 7259 ha. This is 99% of the forest cover that existed in 1957. On the other hand, cultivated land increased from 39% in 1957 to 70% in 1982 and 77% in 1995. The greatest expansion occurred between 1957 and 1982 (about 78%) and ...
422 citations
"Population Growth and Land Use Land..." refers background in this paper
...Numerous studies have shown notable LULC changes in different parts of the country through deforestation and reforestation activities since the late twentieth century [13-15]....
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389 citations
"Population Growth and Land Use Land..." refers background in this paper
...Debate about population has been going on at least since Aristotle, who cautioned that populations could outstrip their subsistence base, leading to poverty and social discord [22]....
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