Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific top predators in a changing climate
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration1, Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research2, California State University, Monterey Bay3, Princeton University4, Dalhousie University5, San Jose State University6, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory7, University of California, Santa Cruz8, Stanford University9
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the potential effect of climate change on the distribution and diversity of marine top predators and found that, based on data from electronic tags on 23 marine species, a change in core habitat range of up to 35% is possible for some species by 2100.
Abstract: Climate change scenarios predict an average sea surface temperature rise of 1–6 °C by 2100. Now, a study investigating the potential effect of these changes on the distribution and diversity of marine top predators finds that, based on data from electronic tags on 23 marine species, a change in core habitat range of up to 35% is possible for some species by 2100.
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TL;DR: A brave new world with a wider view Researchers have long attempted to follow animals as they move through their environment, but such efforts were limited to short distances and times in species large enough to carry large batteries and transmitters, while new technologies have opened up new frontiers in animal tracking remote data collection.
Abstract: BACKGROUND Global aquatic environments are changing profoundly as a result of human actions; consequently, so too are the ways in which organisms are distributing themselves through space and time. Our ability to predict organism and community responses to these alterations will be dependent on knowledge of animal movements, interactions, and how the physiological and environmental processes underlying them shape species distributions. These patterns and processes ultimately structure aquatic ecosystems and provide the wealth of ecosystem services upon which humans depend. Until recently, the vast size, opacity, and dynamic nature of the aquatic realm have impeded our efforts to understand these ecosystems. With rapid technological advancement over the past several decades, a suite of electronic tracking devices (e.g., acoustic and satellite transmitters) that can remotely monitor animals in these challenging environments are now available. Aquatic telemetry technology is rapidly accelerating our ability to observe animal behavior and distribution and, as a consequence, is fundamentally altering our understanding of the structure and function of global aquatic ecosystems. These advances provide the toolbox to define how future global aquatic management practices must evolve. ADVANCES Aquatic telemetry has emerged through technological advances in miniaturization, battery engineering, and software and hardware development, allowing the monitoring of organisms whose habitats range from the poles to the tropics and the photic zone to the abyssal depths. This is enabling the characterization of the horizontal and vertical movements of individuals, populations, and entire communities over scales of meters to tens of thousands of kilometers and over time frames of hours to years and even over the entire lifetimes of individuals. Electronic tags can now be equipped with sensors that measure ambient physical parameters (depth, temperature, conductivity, fluorescence), providing simultaneous monitoring of animals’ environments. By linking telemetry with biologgers (e.g., jaw-motion sensors), it is possible to monitor individual feeding events. In addition, other devices on instrumented animals can communicate with one another, providing insights into predator-prey interactions and social behavior. Coupling telemetry with minute nonlethal biopsy allows understanding of how trophic dynamics, population connectivity, and gene-level basis for organismal health and condition relate to movement. These advances are revolutionizing the scope and scales of questions that can be addressed on the causes and consequences of animal distribution and movement. OUTLOOK Aquatic animal telemetry has advanced rapidly, yet new challenges present themselves in coordination of monitoring across large-spatial scales (ocean basins), data sharing, and data assimilation. The continued advancement of aquatic telemetry lies in establishing and maintaining accessible and cost-effective infrastructure and in promoting multidisciplinary tagging approaches to maximize cost benefits. A united global network and centralized database will provide the mechanism for global telemetry data and will promote a transparent environment for data sharing that will, in turn, increase global communication, scope for collaboration, intellectual advancement, and funding opportunities. An overarching global network will realize the potential of telemetry, which is essential for advancing scientific knowledge and effectively managing globally shared aquatic resources and their ecosystems in the face of mounting human pressures and environmental change.
1,011 citations
Cites background from "Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific..."
...Recent predictive modeling of projected climate change scenarios on species-specific core habitat use and basin-scale biodiversity patterns provides one such management application (67)....
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Deakin University1, Australian Institute of Marine Science2, University of Western Australia3, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology4, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science5, South Australian Research and Development Institute6, Bedford Institute of Oceanography7, Australian Research Council8, University of California, Santa Cruz9, Spanish National Research Council10, Oregon State University11, Australian Antarctic Division12, Murdoch University13, Macquarie University14, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration15, Florida International University16, James Cook University17, University of Hawaii at Manoa18, Alaska SeaLife Center19, University of California, San Diego20, California State University, Long Beach21, Aarhus University22, Natural Environment Research Council23, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science24, University of La Rochelle25, University of Tokyo26, San Jose State University27, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton28, Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom29, University of Southampton30, National Institute of Polar Research31, Max Planck Society32, University of Konstanz33, National Park Service34
TL;DR: This exercise assembled 40 experts to identify key questions in this field, focussing on marine megafauna, which include a broad range of birds, mammals, reptiles, and fish, and shows that the questions have broad applicability to other taxa, including terrestrial animals, flying insects, and swimming invertebrates.
Abstract: It is a golden age for animal movement studies and so an opportune time to assess priorities for future work. We assembled 40 experts to identify key questions in this field, focussing on marine megafauna, which include a broad range of birds, mammals, reptiles, and fish. Research on these taxa has both underpinned many of the recent technical developments and led to fundamental discoveries in the field. We show that the questions have broad applicability to other taxa, including terrestrial animals, flying insects, and swimming invertebrates, and, as such, this exercise provides a useful roadmap for targeted deployments and data syntheses that should advance the field of movement ecology.
375 citations
Cites background from "Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific..."
...The complexities of the drivers of animal movements make predictions of climate change impacts difficult [51]....
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TL;DR: A shift towards dynamic ocean management is suggested, defined as management that rapidly changes in space and time in response to changes in the ocean and its users through the integration of near real-time biological, oceanographic, social and/or economic data.
345 citations
Cites background from "Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific..."
...Much of the theory and application of dynamic management can be readily applied to mobile marine protected areas to protect highly mobile species of concern, or track mobile oceanographic features as they move through the ocean particularly in the face of climate change [24,31,63,64]....
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TL;DR: The authors all know that doctors make the worst patients because they always laughingly tell us so, but how do they rate at taking their own medicine?
Abstract: We all know that doctors make the worst patients because they always laughingly tell us so. But how do we rate at taking our own medicine?
323 citations
01 Jan 2007
307 citations
References
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TL;DR: Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change.
Abstract: Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level
7,657 citations
University of Leeds1, University of Cambridge2, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
7,089 citations
TL;DR: Species distribution models (SDMs) as mentioned in this paper are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates, and are used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict distributions across landscapes, sometimes requiring extrapolation in space and time.
Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs) are numerical tools that combine observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental estimates. They are used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict distributions across landscapes, sometimes requiring extrapolation in space and time. SDMs are now widely used across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. Differences in methods between disciplines reflect both differences in species mobility and in “established use.” Model realism and robustness is influenced by selection of relevant predictors and modeling method, consideration of scale, how the interplay between environmental and geographic factors is handled, and the extent of extrapolation. Current linkages between SDM practice and ecological theory are often weak, hindering progress. Remaining challenges include: improvement of methods for modeling presence-only data and for model selection and evaluation; accounting for biotic interactions; and assessing model uncertainty.
5,076 citations
University of California, Santa Cruz1, Duke University2, University of California, Berkeley3, University of Montana4, University of Cape Town5, University of Wisconsin-Madison6, University of Washington7, University of Florida8, Scripps Institution of Oceanography9, University of Missouri–St. Louis10, Finnmark University College11, University of Turku12, Stony Brook University13, Oregon State University14, Wageningen University and Research Centre15, University of California, Davis16, University of British Columbia17, University of Oulu18, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences19
TL;DR: This empirical work supports long-standing theory about the role of top-down forcing in ecosystems but also highlights the unanticipated impacts of trophic cascades on processes as diverse as the dynamics of disease, wildfire, carbon sequestration, invasive species, and biogeochemical cycles.
Abstract: Until recently, large apex consumers were ubiquitous across the globe and had been for millions of years. The loss of these animals may be humankind's most pervasive influence on nature. Although such losses are widely viewed as an ethical and aesthetic problem, recent research reveals extensive cascading effects of their disappearance in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. This empirical work supports long-standing theory about the role of top-down forcing in ecosystems but also highlights the unanticipated impacts of trophic cascades on processes as diverse as the dynamics of disease, wildfire, carbon sequestration, invasive species, and biogeochemical cycles. These findings emphasize the urgent need for interdisciplinary research to forecast the effects of trophic downgrading on process, function, and resilience in global ecosystems.
3,130 citations
TL;DR: It is shown in the eelpout, Zoarces viviparus, a bioindicator fish species for environmental monitoring from North and Baltic Seas, that thermally limited oxygen delivery closely matches environmental temperatures beyond which growth performance and abundance decrease, which will be the first process to cause extinction or relocation to cooler waters.
Abstract: A cause-and-effect understanding of climate influences on ecosystems requires evaluation of thermal limits of member species and of their ability to cope with changing temperatures. Laboratory data available for marine fish and invertebrates from various climatic regions led to the hypothesis that, as a unifying principle, a mismatch between the demand for oxygen and the capacity of oxygen supply to tissues is the first mechanism to restrict whole-animal tolerance to thermal extremes. We show in the eelpout, Zoarces viviparus, a bioindicator fish species for environmental monitoring from North and Baltic Seas (Helcom), that thermally limited oxygen delivery closely matches environmental temperatures beyond which growth performance and abundance decrease. Decrements in aerobic performance in warming seas will thus be the first process to cause extinction or relocation to cooler waters.
1,798 citations