Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea
TL;DR: Why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea is emphasised and the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential are outlined, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution.
Abstract: An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.
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Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation1, University of Queensland2, Scottish Association for Marine Science3, Griffith University4, National Institute for Environmental Studies5, Hokkaido University6, Imperial College London7, University of California, Santa Barbara8, Aberystwyth University9, Edith Cowan University10, University of the Sunshine Coast11, University of California, Davis12
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans, and find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm water species.
Abstract: Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species’ responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including poleward and deeper distributional shifts, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence of species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with much evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of marine biological impacts of climate change are of the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters) or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).
552 citations
Cites background from "Predicting evolutionary responses t..."
...Observations of evolutionary adaptation to modulate responses of marine species to climate change are notably lacking, despite increasing number of short-term experimental studies (Munday et al., 2013; Reusch, 2014)....
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...By contrast, a recent increase in breeding success of wandering albatross in the Southern Ocean is linked to a strengthening and poleward shift of westerly wind fields....
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TL;DR: The key assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with Tb are examined to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.
Abstract: Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (Tb ) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced Tb. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with Tb , to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.
545 citations
National Institute for Environmental Studies1, Scottish Association for Marine Science2, Imperial College London3, University of California, Santa Barbara4, University of the Sunshine Coast5, University of Queensland6, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg7, Museum für Naturkunde8, Edith Cowan University9, Aberystwyth University10, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation11
TL;DR: Ocean warming will cause widespread changes in species richness and assemblage composition over coming decades, with important implications for both conservation management and international ocean governance as mentioned in this paper, and this is a major concern.
Abstract: Ocean warming will cause widespread changes in species richness and assemblage composition over coming decades, with important implications for both conservation management and international ocean governance.
446 citations
TL;DR: This review represents the first meta-analysis of multistressor studies to target early marine life stages (embryo to larvae), particularly between temperature, salinity and pH as these are the best studied.
Abstract: Marine organisms are simultaneously exposed to anthropogenic stressors with likely interactive effects, including synergisms in which the combined effects of multiple stressors are greater than the sum of individual effects. Early life stages of marine organisms are potentially vulnerable to the stressors associated with global change, but identifying general patterns across studies, species and response variables is challenging. This review represents the first meta-analysis of multistressor studies to target early marine life stages (embryo to larvae), particularly between temperature, salinity and pH as these are the best studied. Knowledge gaps in research on multiple abiotic stressors and early life stages are also identified. The meta-analysis yielded several key results: (1) Synergistic interactions (65% of individual tests) are more common than additive (17%) or antagonistic (17%) interactions. (2) Larvae are generally more vulnerable than embryos to thermal and pH stress. (3) Survival is more likely than sublethal responses to be affected by thermal, salinity and pH stress. (4) Interaction types vary among stressors, ontogenetic stages and biological responses, but they are more consistent among phyla. (5) Ocean acidification is a greater stressor for calcifying than noncalcifying larvae. Despite being more ecologically realistic than single-factor studies, multifactorial studies may still oversimplify complex systems, and so meta-analyses of the data from them must be cautiously interpreted with regard to extrapolation to field conditions. Nonetheless, our results identify taxa with early life stages that may be particularly vulnerable (e.g. molluscs, echinoderms) or robust (e.g. arthropods, cnidarians) to abiotic stress. We provide a list of recommendations for future multiple stressor studies, particularly those focussed on early marine life stages.
369 citations
Cites background from "Predicting evolutionary responses t..."
...Questions on the potential for adjustment and adaptation to climate change will require long-term, transgenerational experimental studies (Sunday et al., 2011; Kelly et al., 2013b; a, Munday et al., 2013; Sunday et al., 2014)....
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TL;DR: It is found that near-future increases in local temperature of as little as 0.5°C result in this protective mechanism being lost, which may increase the rate of degradation of the GBR.
Abstract: Coral bleaching events threaten the sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Here we show that bleaching events of the past three decades have been mitigated by induced thermal tolerance of reef-building corals, and this protective mechanism is likely to be lost under near-future climate change scenarios. We show that 75% of past thermal stress events have been characterized by a temperature trajectory that subjects corals to a protective, sub-bleaching stress, before reaching temperatures that cause bleaching. Such conditions confer thermal tolerance, decreasing coral cell mortality and symbiont loss during bleaching by over 50%. We find that near-future increases in local temperature of as little as 0.5°C result in this protective mechanism being lost, which may increase the rate of degradation of the GBR.
355 citations
References
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TL;DR: Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change.
Abstract: Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level
7,657 citations
"Predicting evolutionary responses t..." refers background in this paper
...While there is legitimate concern that the rate of environmental change exceeds the capacity for many species to adapt (Parmesan 2006), theoretical models show that even species with relatively long generation times might adapt to environmental change if their populations have sufficient standing…...
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...While there is legitimate concern that the rate of environmental change exceeds the capacity for many species to adapt (Parmesan 2006), theoretical models show that even species with relatively long generation times might adapt to environmental change if their populations have sufficient standing genetic variation and the potential for a high intrinsic rate of growth (Chevin et al....
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Book•
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This book discusses the genetic Basis of Quantitative Variation, Properties of Distributions, Covariance, Regression, and Correlation, and Properties of Single Loci, and Sources of Genetic Variation for Multilocus Traits.
Abstract: I. The Genetic Basis of Quantitative Variation - An Overview of Quantitative Genetics - Properties of Distributions - Covariance, Regression, and Correlation - Properties of Single Loci - Sources of Genetic Variation for Multilocus Traits - Sources of Environmental Variation - Resemblance Between Relatives - Introduction to Matrix Algebra and Linear Models - Analysis of Line Crosses - Inbreeding Depression - Matters of Scale - II. Quantitative-Trait Loci - Polygenes and Polygenic Mutation - Detecting Major Genes - Basic Concepts of Marker-Based Analysis - Mapping and Characterizing QTLs: Inbred-Line Crosses - Mapping and Characterizing QTLs: Outbred Populations - III. Estimation Procedures - Parent-Offspring Regression - Sib AnalysisTwins and Clones - Cross-Classified Designs - Correlations Between Characters - Genotype x Environment Interaction - Maternal Effects Sex Linkage and Sexual Dimorphism - Threshold Characters - Estimation of Breeding Values - Variance-Component Estimation with Complex Pedigrees - Appendices - Expectations, Variances and Covariances of Compound Variables - Path Analysis - Matrix Algebra and Linear Models - Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Likelihood-Ratio Tests - Estimation of Power of Statistical Tests -
6,530 citations
Book•
01 Jan 2003
4,928 citations
"Predicting evolutionary responses t..." refers background in this paper
...Developmental plasticity is widespread among animals (West-Eberhard 2003), and is especially important to climate change research, because individuals in the future will experience changed climate conditions throughout life....
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TL;DR: The challenges to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.
Abstract: Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.
2,505 citations
"Predicting evolutionary responses t..." refers background in this paper
...Ultimately, predicting the persistence of populations and species in a rapidly changing climate will require coupling estimates of evolutionary potential to demographic processes (Hoffmann & Sgro 2011; Gonzalez et al. 2013)....
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...…responses to climate change in marine systems are still relatively scarce, experimental approaches are increasingly being applied to understand adaptation to climate change in terrestrial ecosystems (Bradshaw & Holzapfel 2006; Hendry et al. 2011; Hoffmann & Sgro 2011; Shaw & Etterson 2012)....
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TL;DR: Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems and will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.
Abstract: Marine ecosystems are centrally important to the biology of the planet, yet a comprehensive understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting them has been poorly developed. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, reduced abundance of habitat-forming species, shifting species distributions, and a greater incidence of disease. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems. Further change will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.
2,408 citations
"Predicting evolutionary responses t..." refers background in this paper
...…relatively few examples were known (Richardson & Poloczanska 2008), the biological impacts of warmer oceans and ocean acidification (here collectively called climate change for simplicity) are now known to be large and pervasive (Harley et al. 2006; Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno 2010; Doney et al. 2012)....
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