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Journal ArticleDOI

Predicting morbidity and mortality in acute pancreatitis in an Indian population: a comparative study of the BISAP score, Ranson’s score and CT severity index

01 Aug 2016-Gastroenterology Report (Oxford University Press)-Vol. 4, Iss: 3, pp 216-220

TL;DR: The BISAP score represents a simple way of identifying, within 24 hours of presentation, patients at greater risk of dying and the development of intermediate markers of severity, in a tertiary care centre in east central India.

AbstractObjective: Our aim was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score in predicting mortality, as well as intermediate markers of severity, in a tertiary care centre in east central India, which caters mostly for an economically underprivileged population. Methods: A total of 119 consecutive cases with acute pancreatitis were admitted to our institution between November 2012 and October 2014. BISAP scores were calculated for all cases, within 24 hours of presentation. Ranson’s score and computed tomography severity index (CTSI) were also established. The respective abilities of the three scoring systems to predict mortality was evaluated using trend and discrimination analysis. The optimal cut-off score for mortality from the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the development of persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis (PNec). Results: Of the 119 cases, 42 (35.2%) developed organ failure and were classified as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), 47 (39.5%) developed PNec, and 12 (10.1%) died. The area under the curve (AUC) results for BISAP score in predicting SAP, PNec, and mortality were 0.962, 0.934 and 0.846, respectively. Ranson’s score showed a slightly lower accuracy for predicting SAP (AUC 0.956) and mortality (AUC 0.841). CTSI was the most accurate in predicting PNec, with an AUC of 0.958. The sensitivity and specificity of BISAP score, with a cut-off of � 3 in predicting mortality, were 100% and 69.2%, respectively. Conclusions: The BISAP score represents a simple way of identifying, within 24 hours of presentation, patients at greater risk of dying and the development of intermediate markers of severity. This risk stratification method can be utilized to improve clinical care and facilitate enrolment in clinical trials.

Topics: Population (52%), Acute pancreatitis (50%)

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: APACHE II is a useful prognostic scoring system for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and can be a crucial aid in determining the group of patients that have a high chance of need for tertiary care during the course of their illness and therefore need early resuscitation and prompt referral, especially in resource-limited developing countries.
Abstract: Objective Our aim was to prospectively compare the Accuracy of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson's score and modified Computed Tomography Severity Index (CTSI) in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis based on Atlanta 2012 definitions in a tertiary care hospital in northern India. Methods Fifty patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to our hospital during the period of March 2015 to September 2016 were included in the study. APACHE II, BISAP and Ranson's score were calculated for all the cases. Modified CTSI was also determined based on a pancreatic protocol contrast enhanced computerized tomography (CT). Optimal cut-offs for these scoring systems and the area under the curve (AUC) were evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and these scoring systems were compared prospectively. Results Of the 50 cases, 14 were graded as severe acute pancreatitis. Pancreatic necrosis was present in 15 patients, while 14 developed persistent organ failure and 14 needed intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The AUC for modified CTSI was consistently the highest for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (0.919), pancreatic necrosis (0.993), organ failure (0.893) and ICU admission (0.993). APACHE II was the second most accurate in predicting severe acute pancreatitis (AUC 0.834) and organ failure (0.831). APACHE II had a high sensitivity for predicting pancreatic necrosis (93.33%), organ failure (92.86%) and ICU admission (92.31%), and also had a high negative predictive value for predicting pancreatic necrosis (96.15%), organ failure (96.15%) and ICU admission (95.83%). Conclusion APACHE II is a useful prognostic scoring system for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis and can be a crucial aid in determining the group of patients that have a high chance of need for tertiary care during the course of their illness and therefore need early resuscitation and prompt referral, especially in resource-limited developing countries.

41 citations


Journal Article
01 Jan 2008-Gut
Abstract: Background: Identification of patients at risk for mortality early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP) is an important step in improving outcome. Methods: Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a clinical scoring system was developed for prediction of in-hospital mortality in AP. The scoring system was derived on data collected from 17 992 cases of AP from 212 hospitals in 2000-2001. The new scoring system was validated on data collected from 18 256 AP cases from 177 hospitals in 2004-2005. The accuracy of the scoring system for prediction of mortality was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The performance of the new scoring system was further validated by comparing its predictive accuracy with that of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE) II. Results: CART analysis identified five variables for prediction of in-hospital mortality. One point is assigned for the presence of each of the following during the first 24 h: blood urea nitrogen (BUN) >25 mg/dl; impaired mental status; systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS); age >60 years; or the presence of a pleural effusion (BISAP). Mortality ranged from >20% in the highest risk group to <1% in the lowest risk group. In the validation cohort, the BISAP AUC was 0.82 (95% Cl 0.79 to 0.84) versus APACHE II AUC of 0.83 (95% Cl 0.80 to 0.85). Conclusions: A new mortality-based prognostic scoring system for use in AP has been derived and validated. The BISAP is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in-hospital mortality.

40 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Though APACHE II is the most accurate predictor of mortality, CTSI is a good predictor of both mortality and AP severity, which should be used more often in routine clinical practice.
Abstract: Background: The management of the moderate and severe forms of acute pancreatitis (AP) with necrosis and multiorgan failure remains a challenge. To predict the severity and mortality of AP multiple clinical, laboratory-, and imaging-based scoring systems are available. Aim: To investigate, if the computed tomography severity index (CTSI) can predict the outcomes of AP better than other scoring systems. Methods: A systematic search was performed in three databases: Pubmed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Eligible records provided data from consecutive AP cases and used CTSI or modified CTSI (mCTSI) alone or in combination with other prognostic scores [Ranson, bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology, and Chronic Health Examination II (APACHE II), C-reactive protein (CRP)] for the evaluation of severity or mortality of AP. Area under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated and aggregated with STATA 14 software using the metandi module. Results: Altogether, 30 studies were included in our meta-analysis, which contained the data of 5,988 AP cases. The pooled AUC for the prediction of mortality was 0.79 (CI 0.73-0.86) for CTSI; 0.87 (CI 0.83-0.90) for BISAP; 0.80 (CI 0.72-0.89) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.66-0.81) for CRP level; 0.87 (CI 0.81-0.92) for the Ranson score; and 0.91 (CI 0.88-0.93) for the APACHE II score. The APACHE II scoring system had significantly higher predictive value for mortality than CTSI and CRP (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively), while the predictive value of CTSI was not statistically different from that of BISAP, mCTSI, CRP, or Ranson criteria. The AUC for the prediction of severity of AP were 0.80 (CI 0.76-0.85) for CTSI; 0.79, (CI 0.72-0.86) for BISAP; 0.83 (CI 0.75-0.91) for mCTSI; 0.73 (CI 0.64-0.83) for CRP level; 0.81 (CI 0.75-0.87) for Ranson score and 0.80 (CI 0.77-0.83) for APACHE II score. Regarding severity, all tools performed equally. Conclusion: Though APACHE II is the most accurate predictor of mortality, CTSI is a good predictor of both mortality and AP severity. When the CT scan has been performed, CTSI is an easily calculable and informative tool, which should be used more often in routine clinical practice.

27 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The BISAP has very good predictive performance for SAP across different patient population and etiologies, and studies to evaluate the impact of incorporating the B ISAP into clinical practice to improve outcome in acute pancreatitis are needed before adoption could be advocated with confidence.
Abstract: Background: predicting the development of severe disease has remained a major challenge in management of acute pancreatitis. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) is easy to calculate from the data available in the first 24 hours. Here, we performed a systematic review to determine the prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods: major databases of biomedical publications were searched during the first week of October 2015. Two independent reviewers searched records in two phases. Studies that reported prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for SAP from prospective cohorts were included. The pooled area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: Twelve studies were included for data-synthesis and methodology quality assessment was performed for 10. All the studies had enrolled consecutive patients, had a broad spectrum of the disease severity, reported explicit interpretation of the predictor, outcome of interest was well defined and had adequate follow-up. Blinded outcome assessment was reported in only one study. The pooled AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.90). There was significant heterogeneity, I2 86.6%. Studies using revised Atlanta classification in defining SAP had a pooled AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95), but heterogeneity persisted, I2 67%. Subgroup analysis based on rate of SAP (>20% vs <20%) did not eliminate the heterogeneity. Conclusion: the BISAP has very good predictive performance for SAP across different patient population and etiologies. Studies to evaluate the impact of incorporating the BISAP into clinical practice to improve outcome in acute pancreatitis are needed before adoption could be advocated with confidence.

11 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Extra-pancreatic complications occur frequently in ICU patients with AP and impact LOS and mortality, and patients with non-infectious extra-p Pancreatic Complications have a higher mortality rate.
Abstract: Background and aims Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute pancreatitis (AP) are at risk for extra-pancreatic complications given their severe illness and prolonged length of stay. We sought to determine the rate of extra-pancreatic complications and its effect on length of stay (LOS) and mortality in ICU patients with AP. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of ICU patients admitted to a tertiary-care center with a diagnosis of AP. A total of 287 ICU patients had a discharge diagnosis of AP, of which 163 met inclusion criteria. We calculated incidence rates of extra-pancreatic complications and performed a univariate and multi-variable analysis to determine predictors of LOS and mortality. Results There were a total of 158 extra-pancreatic complications (0.97 extra-pancreatic complications per patient). Ninety-five patients had at least one extra-pancreatic complication, whereas 68 patients had no extra-pancreatic complications. Patients with extra-pancreatic complications had a significantly longer LOS (14.7 vs 8.8 days, p < 0.01) when controlling for local pancreatic complications. Patients with non-infectious extra-pancreatic complications had a higher rate of mortality (24.0% vs 16.2%, p = 0.04). Patients requiring dialysis was an independent predictor for LOS and mortality (incidence risk ratio [IRR] 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.263-2.378 and IRR 1.50, 95% CI 1.623-6.843, p < 0.01) on multi-variable analysis. Coronary events were also a predictor for mortality (p = 0.05). Other extra-pancreatic complications were not significant. Conclusions Extra-pancreatic complications occur frequently in ICU patients with AP and impact LOS. Patients with non-infectious extra-pancreatic complications have a higher mortality rate. After controlling for local pancreatic complications, patients requiring dialysis remained an independent predictor for LOS and mortality.

6 citations


References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A CT severity index, based on a combination of peripancreatic inflammation, phlegmon, and degree of pancreatic necrosis as seen at initial CT study, was developed and showed clear trends in patients who initially had or developed more than 30% necrosis.
Abstract: The presence and degree of pancreatic necrosis (30%, 50%, or greater than 50%) was evaluated by means of bolus injection of contrast material and dynamic sequential computed tomography (CT) in 88 patients with acute pancreatitis at initial and follow-up examinations. Pancreatic necrosis was defined as lack of enhancement of all or a portion of the gland. Length of hospitalization, morbidity, and mortality in patients with early or late necrosis (22 patients) were evaluated and compared with the same criteria in the rest of the group. Patients with necrosis had a 23% mortality and an 82% complication rate; patients without necrosis had 0% mortality and 6% morbidity. When only the initial assessment was considered, patients with peripancreatic phlegmons and necrosis had 80% morbidity, compared with 36% morbidity in those with phlegmons and no necrosis. Serious complications occurred in patients who initially had or developed more than 30% necrosis. A CT severity index, based on a combination of peripancreatic inflammation, phlegmon, and degree of pancreatic necrosis as seen at initial CT study, was developed. Patients with a high CT severity index had 92% morbidity and 17% mortality; patients with a low CT severity index had 2% morbidity, and none died.

1,371 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
01 Dec 2008-Gut
TL;DR: The BISAP is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in-hospital mortality in acute pancreatitis.
Abstract: Background: Identification of patients at risk for mortality early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP) is an important step in improving outcome. Methods: Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a clinical scoring system was developed for prediction of in-hospital mortality in AP. The scoring system was derived on data collected from 17 992 cases of AP from 212 hospitals in 2000–2001. The new scoring system was validated on data collected from 18 256 AP cases from 177 hospitals in 2004–2005. The accuracy of the scoring system for prediction of mortality was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The performance of the new scoring system was further validated by comparing its predictive accuracy with that of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE) II. Results: CART analysis identified five variables for prediction of in-hospital mortality. One point is assigned for the presence of each of the following during the first 24 h: blood urea nitrogen (BUN) >25 mg/dl; impaired mental status; systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS); age >60 years; or the presence of a pleural effusion (BISAP). Mortality ranged from >20% in the highest risk group to Conclusions: A new mortality-based prognostic scoring system for use in AP has been derived and validated. The BISAP is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in-hospital mortality.

503 citations


"Predicting morbidity and mortality ..." refers background or methods in this paper

  • ...proposed a new prognostic scoring system for the early determination of the severity of acute pancreatitis, which they named the ‘bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis’ (BISAP) [1, 2]....

    [...]

  • ...to be an accurate tool for risk stratification of acute pancreatitis in western populations [1, 3]....

    [...]


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is confirmed that the BISAP score is an accurate means for risk stratification in patients with AP and simple scoring systems may have reached their maximal utility and novel models are needed to further improve predictive accuracy.
Abstract: Comparison of BISAP, Ranson's, APACHE-II, and CTSI Scores in Predicting Organ Failure, Complications, and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis

393 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The BISAP score represents a simple way to identify patients at risk of increased mortality and the development of intermediate markers of severity within 24 h of presentation and can be utilized to improve clinical care and facilitate enrollment in clinical trials.
Abstract: A Prospective Evaluation of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis Score in Assessing Mortality and Intermediate Markers of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

213 citations


"Predicting morbidity and mortality ..." refers background in this paper

  • ...proposed a new prognostic scoring system for the early determination of the severity of acute pancreatitis, which they named the ‘bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis’ (BISAP) [1, 2]....

    [...]

  • ...5%) deaths among 397 cases [2] but, in our study, 82....

    [...]


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Computed tomography was used to assess possible pancreatic disease in 352 patients and was found to be a reliable, often specific, and noninvasive method for detecting pancreatic neoplasms and pseudocysts.
Abstract: Computed tomography (CT) was used to assess possible pancreatic disease in 352 patients. It was found to be a reliable, often specific, and noninvasive method for detecting pancreatic neoplasms and pseudocysts. The use of CT has resulted in the diminished use of pancreatic angiography; effects of CT on patterns of utilization of other diagnostic methods are described.

70 citations